Member Info for Doc.Daneeka

"why would you pay £200M for a company with a MCAP of £15M ?"
The first answer is because someone else is willing to pay £199m
The second answer is, because you can make much more

Your first answer to this conundrum is spot on Brand - but the second is just hooey.

Tommy "efficacy against a multitude of respiratory viruses"
The point is not does it work - but how well does it work. And that remains to be proven. For everything. And the cost to benefit calculation still has to work.

Finish Sprinter and all the ducks will line up one after the other.. that's all they have to do.

Interesting points Jakman and wpa. Accept completely what you say on COPD - it produced some good data but clearly still a large trial required to confirm the signals.
In response to the last couple of points Jm I'd say that if Rick Bright had made those comments whilst still head of BARDA they'd have obviously carried a lot more weight. As it is - they do still chime with a lot of what Stacey Adam said in the STRIVE launch presentation, and we know that Covid has revolutionised trial design and speed already, so it's great that important people are thinking like this, but you'd still say that the aspiration and the reality are clearly some way apart.
I'm not sure how the AZ vaccine trial supports your point either. AFAIK the only protocol anomally was the mistake in dosing in Brazil and attempts to fudge the efficay % to include this accidental data - which nobody accepted and which led only to FDA failing to ever authorise the vaccine. Were you referencing something else ?

wpa5 - I agree with all of that. We have to hope whichever avenue (s) they're pursuing, that one of them is nearing some kind of completion. The fear is that they're on the road and busier than they've ever been in promotional activities because they haven't yet made the connection to move the drug forward.

Adaptive in the sense of adding new therapeutics as they arrive and qualify, but not as simultaneous trialing of a single drug against multiple viruses. STRIVE's mission statement says it will eventually be a platform for a variety of conditions but not for multi trialing of individual drugs tp prove broad spectrum action. My response was to AJ's hope that somehow SNG could be on one super trial against everything - and that's not possible. Each would need a separate protocol - different dosing possibly. There just isn't anything in the SNG data bank that would allow this without further individual trials. Flu, RSV & COPD would still have to start at P2.
Regardless of our belief in what may be possible in the long term the fact remains that we have just one strong dataset for just one virus. For everything except Covid we are unproven. The company's entire focus after Sprinter topline should have been to find the quickest and cheapest way of standing up the post-hoc evidence and getting the EUA that was almost within reach for Covid. They've done very well in the various presentations and discussions since we had the deep dive but are they still pushing as hard as they might be at the Covid door. RM's position has wavered - not mentioning Sprinter at all in the last Proactive interview was bizarre and encouraged the narrative that the company was returning to its primary objective. If that's what they've been attempting in the last few months instead of pushing nonstop to get a new Covid P3 then they've risked all of the gains from the C19 trials for a nebulous and academic ambition which they have no means of pursuing.

"I'm 100% the next trial will not be a covid only and will be across various infections. " Sounds like a huge and expensive undertaking AJ. Simultaneously tackling a host of viruses. There are no platform trials of this nature so it would need to be a self funded Sprinter +++. and also address the issue of only having a P2/3 for Covid. So Flu RSV/COPD and anything else would all need to be P2 level before progressing to P3. We have good safety data for Covid and some for COPD but that doesn't open the door unless everyone thinks it's a miracle drug ( which is not the case with SNG )
Drugs that work against a range of conditions are always trialed and approved for each in turn. Synairgen's ambition to be the drug of choice for all seriously illrespiratory patients will have to begin with individual EUA's for the individual viruses.
Let's keep the faith for STRIVE. Still plenty of time to get onto it and nothing else gets us anywhere near where it gets us.

and with this I'll take my leave again until we have news. I don't want to be throwing stones though the windows of a house I have spent so much happy time in over the last couple of years. I hope we're next on STRIVE and that the announcement is coming soon. We all know we've missed the big chance with Covid, as much for the world as for our investments, but bravo to those of you who are continuing to chase the price down and lower your averages. It's still possible something can be done. Clearly we don't have the resources to go it alone and I remain to be convinced that anyone will fund a JV when they might soon buy the company for less than the cost of a large P3. If we don't get onto STRIVE then i expect a larger company to take over and attempt to finish the job, and when that happens we'll all get something back at least. ttfn

Xv almost all of us have caught it in the last year. Omicron is fiendishly infectious. Most of us have been surprised at how easily our vaccinated and boosted bodies have thrown it off. Some - like the Prof, have managed without need of Vax - but many have been grateful for the protection of vaxes and prior infection. Certainly under-vaxed and poorly protected nations have had a tough time - and China is demonstrating on a huge scale that perpetual lockdowns and dodgy vaccines don't work.
Does any of it have relevance for SNG in the way that you suggest ? Only if the company gets a place on STRIVE. We're not going to be EUA'd for anything except Covid. COPD and RSV are a long way off in the distant future and this bump in flu numbers has been expected and foreseen for a long time. Could SNG do anything in UK hospitals this winter for the most ill - almost certainly yes. Will it be invited to the party or onto a trial for anything but Covid ? No.

"the next couple of weeks news' agenda is going to focus a few minds. sp should move." Nonsense xv.
Synairgen's post-hoc P3 data has been out there for more than half a year. Nobody in a position to advance the drug - or the sp - will be taking their lead from the Daily Mail's concerns about the tricky position the world finds itself in, and neither will the market, which has watched and ignored our slide, be remotely interested in the broader implications of a dangerous new subvariant until there's proof of multiple deaths and evasion AND news of a trial that might get SNG back in the game.
If it makes you more optimistic of course, please keep posting news of this nature.

Doomsday scenarios have always been popular on here (and in the Daily Mail ) but the truth of Omicron, so far, is of huge numbers of infections and low deaths. This could be different - but according to the DM's main health expert " I doubt XBB.1.5 will cause a major disruption for health services but we need to wait a couple of weeks to see what is happening in the US to be certain,' Professor Hunter added.

https://www.who.int/images/default-source/searo---images/emergencies/covid19/graph.jpg?sfvrsn=14e7909d_3

Dexamethasone was approved for use everywhere in the autumn of 2020. Well ahead of the final design of Sprinter

Morning Size82 and Happy New Year to one and all. It was a tragic mistake to allow the trial to shrink as they did. None of us saw the danger but we trusted that they had taken SOC into account and that the size ( agreed with FDA ) - was adequate. SNG still presents a compelling case for inclusion on STRIVE however - and we can't complain that they haven't been busy in the past 3 months. Rick Bright's tacit support should be important, and the global Covid landscape is still fraught with potential danger. Let's hope that the situation can still be resued before the looming danger of Feb 21st.

"If we get on a trial this Winter..Still a possibility, we could pass a P3 in 2023.. ..?? "

If we are the next STRIVE drug ( Covid being the only P3 we'd qualify for ) it's possible they could get it done in a year but only if hospitalisations continue well into the spring/summer of '23 or if there is a real emergency dash to get it done. They have enough doses and the STRIVE trial network is vast so there's a possibility. They won't be in a huge rush unless people who were hitherto protected - start dying. And that means a completely new VoC, something that bypasses the hybrid immunity of vax and prior infection as well as targeting the immuno-compromised (who will once again bee told to stay home). XBB1.5 might be that variant but so far there are signs of higher hospitalisations but not higher deaths.
Remembering that Sprinter took 2 years from announcement to peer review for 620. This would be much larger.

Yes Doc83 - a much preferred outcome. They have 6 weeks to get onto a big free Covid trial imo. Beyond this point they will no longer be in control of their own destiny.

Sensible measure for once. It was starting to look a lot like late 2019 again. Although the fear is more about new variants emerging if tens of millions - including a lot of vulnerable unboosted people - are infected at the same time, than a new wave caused by Chinese travellers.
As long as the Chinese wave is predominantly BF.7 - which seemed to be the case a couple of weeks ago, but is difficult to be certain of now, as they lie about everything - there is no real danger. We had it in the autumn (as did the States ) and it didn't knock our dominant variants off their perch.
Italy will be our canary again - as they are letting people in and screening / sequencing on arrival - and that will tell us quite quickly if there's a new strain leaving China.

In any case nobody is going to EUA SNG on the basis of what happens in China, or because the PPB has passed Congress.
SNG lives or dies on its data and whilst we and others more qualified believe this to be compelling - the drug has been overlooked at the top level for so long that it may continue to be ignored.
And miniscule fluctuations in the sp mean doodly squat unless you're joining imaginary dots.

We end a long year with the world in a much better place than when it began. Omicron has spawned more than 500 sublineages and none have had the doomsday combination of greater infectivity & deadliness. Our "opponents" - designed specifically for single strains - have been knocked about in the new world of fast changing variants but so far only under-protected communities and countries have suffered despite the gaping holes in our defence.

Who knows what 2023 will bring. I'm sure only that this will be our last Christmas & New Year together. For good or ill.

well said Seaboy and Aj ( and thanks again for the kind words. Ma and pa went ice skating today :)

I think I've worked out what happened today by the way. Synairgen has once again issued a sh.ite RNS which allowed online sites to run negative stories as if the bad Sprinter result had just happened.
Here's the worst which came out at 11am.
The Headline
" Synairgen Shares Drop After Trial Data is Published in European Medical Journal "
the short story says "Shares in Synairgen PLC dropped 10% on Friday after the company said that data from a trial that didn't meet its primary end point was published in the European Respiratory Journal Open Research. "
This is all they wrote about the RNS. Nothing about PPP or any of the good stuff
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/synairgen-shares-drop-after-trial-data-is-published-in-european-medical-journal-271671798471

There are only 3 reports i can find and although the other 2 both add that RRR was encouraging - the first line is Sprinter did not meet primary endpoints - and the last line is "SNG001 is not approved for use anywhere in the world"

Now we know ALL of it is old news and take the positive that the peer review confirms the post hoc analysis - which is the important bit - and which is what they should have led on - but you could imagine a newly invested shareholder thinking wtf and dumping their shares.
Just a theory - but I can't think of any other reason why yet again what should gave been a positive day turned to guano so quickly. They need help with everything of course - but we thought comms had improved and then they do this again.

cheers HSD for the clarification and the graceful language. Joeyd said it wasn't a peer review earlier - but maybe that was b4 the RNS

gunto - yes I'm sure i'm wrong. Where's the guv'nor though - since when did the CSO take centre stage like this fior a major RNS - and can anyone answer the question about whether this IS the peer review

BTW let's stop posting under that other thread - unless anyone feels the need for further excioriation.

As far as the rest of it goes - I've no idea why we've slipped close to the edge. Does the publication constitute a peer review or not ? If not I've no idea why the company has RNSd it. The RNS itself is neutral except that PM does not include Covid in his concluding paragraph about the future " we remain confident in the potential of SNG001 as a broad-spectrum antiviral for high-risk patient populations infected with respiratory viruses including influenza and RSV and are focused on its continued clinical development." - which seems bizarre when you're supposedly bigging up the post hoc of Sprinter.

I see 2 doomsday possibilities for the slide
1. RM has been given the boot.
2. We are not on STRIVE and someone knows we're definitely no longer a possible candidate - if we ever were.

It's long been mny belief that all the "arrows in the air" blolloc.ks was just that.

Have also just reapplied my AB4 filter. I can take everyone else's anger and despair, as I believe they're still invested - but his/her/its gleeful gloating commentary comes from a dark and evil place. Be gone Beelzebub

Looking forward to reading what the clever science wallahs make of the peer review tomorrow. Before all this I just wanted to say thanks for the kind responses to my post. I think many of us came here after P2 believing we were supporting something very special and that game is not yet over. Thanks Alpha and Fruits in particular for characteristically classy responses. And Aether and John too.
Hoping for better days ahead and wishing you all a Merry Christmas.