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“It is then perhaps not surprising that this also means there is no precedent for a broad-spectrum antiviral clinical development programme. Designing and determining a clinical pathway for this approach is complex, as there are multiple viruses being targeted for different high-risk patient groups.”

What in Synairgen's history suggest to you that the company has the means or expertise to even begin to design such a complex trial Gunto.? Seriously. They weren't unlucky with the design of Sprinter they botched it. Shrunk from 900 to 600 unnecessarily and then failing to account for Dexa when it was already SOC everywhere long before the trial started - let alone the delays in running an unnecessarily international trial - or the witlessness in not collecting samples where they could.

I mean - without wishing to disparage individuals unnecessarily - is Philip Monk (the man most culpable for SG018's failure) capable of putting together a flu /rsv / covid / copd multi protocol trial. And does the company have any significant data to guide its hand in this endeavour for anything apart from Covid ?

Sprinter was very very close to statistical significance. All this is nonsense. All RM had to do was finish the job that was in front of him instead of being dragged for most of the year down theoretical blind alleys.

Well everyone has ambitions - but it's one thing to be ambitious and quite another to imagine you'll succeed with such a unique mission statement when nobody has ever designed or run a trial to prove a single drug against multiple viruses. Not in the history of medicine. Conventional wisdom and methodology suggests you begin with one approval and take that on to the next trial. As they attempted with Asthma and then COPD and finally Covid. What means does Synairgen have of pursuing such a dream ? Only that it might convince a very big player that the science is sound and hope they'll put up more than the company's worth to design and run the trial without taking everything at its end. Good luck with that

nothing complex in trialing SNG on STRIVE. 1000+ Pre-existing commorbities - 65y +. Breathlessness but not oxygen as a marker so that you get the patients well before they are given Dexa.
The "complex protocol " feeds into the idea that they might design a multi virus trial but they won't.
Paxlovid is the most likely second candidate.

HSD's is the correct scenario - with STRIVE the only possibility of shareholders realising anything like what we'd consider fair value for our shares. The idea of a big payout has gone - but news of this trial would have a significant impact on the sp and as this improves so does the company's chance of remaining in control of its only asset.
There's still a chance of this as we know it's been delayed several times already. It's the only arrow of any value left with an sp of 11p and dwindling resources. The idea of a meaningful JV - especially with J&J - has always been bunkum to my mind, and diminishes with every week that passes.
As far as what any individual shareholder would accept, it's utterly immaterial. All that matters is what Polygon thinks and whether it sees this as a rescue job or a positive long term hold.
The question is not whether "it works" but how well it works and whether it represents value for money for healthcare providers. Sprinter's deep dive suggests there is still a strong case for targeted SNG in hospitals but it seems nobody is beating down RM's door to help prove this.

Nice post Doc83. You've won the weekend for the second week running. Need a spectacular next week for the hatrick.

It's a nice and rather left field mention. Ian Lyall is clearly a fan and judging from the inclusion here, quite possibly a shareholder. Works for Proactive and has written about Synairgen a few times before.

A balanced view of the likely danger from this Reuters piece

"Using so-called gain of function experiments, scientists intentionally altered the H5N1 virus to make it transmissible in ferrets and found that as few as five highly specific mutations were required.
Most of the mammalian cases so far have had only one of these mutations - in a gene called PB2 - which was present in the mink. Webby said the virus can make that change easily.
What has not changed, even in mink, is that the virus still prefers to bind to avian-type receptors to enter and infect cells. Mink have both avian and human-type receptors, but avian receptors are scarce in humans and located deep in the lungs.
..According to the CDC's Uyeki, studies of the H5N1 genetic sequences in the mink outbreak "do not indicate any changes that suggest increased ability to infect the upper respiratory tract of humans."
That change is a must if a bird flu virus is to spread easily in people.

"The saving grace for humans right now is it seems that it's really, really difficult for this virus to switch receptor preference,"

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/why-public-health-officials-are-not-panicked-about-bird-flu-2023-02-23/

with respect Fruits we've just had the human to human high mortality event. It was called Covid 19. 674 million cases globally and 6.87 million deaths. This was the event that brought Synairgen's potential into sharp focus. SG016 made the front pages when only 660k had died globally. Before you know it we'll celebrate the 3rd anniversary of that great day. If SNG still has a chance it will not be because of a new danger or another presentation or any other sharpening of focus. It'll be because someone has already decided to back it or take it.

"Vape induced popcorn lung is a significant market for SNG which will start coming to the fore in 10-15 years " Balderdash and ****.
Diacetyl - the popcorn flavouring that gives the rare lung condition its name, has been banned from vapes since 2016.

Given that in 2012 1.7% of UK adults vaped compared to 8% in 2022 - and that 55% of the 4.3 million Britons who vaped last year are ex smokers we need to celebrate them - as most in the medical profession do rather than diving down another blind alley.

oh sorry - thought we'd had that.

The excitement builds as usual whenever there's a conference or presentation, which is fine - if it keeps people's spirits up - but it's most likely this will not be RNS worthy. Activ 2's data is great for a ground zero scenario but of no value as a current Covid therapeuticfor outpatients. So we'll hear how well it did and we'll hear why it wasn't progressed. I'd rather they'd spent their time pushing the Sprinter deep dive and spending their last coin on converting that into another trial. Not sure why they haven't (to date) had any luck or interest in doing this.
NIH's Shionogi press release for STRIVE contains this paragraph
"Findings from the ACTIV-3 trials, which evaluated therapeutics for adults hospitalized with COVID-19, indicated that ongoing viral replication may play a role in driving disease progression to critical illness. The research team hypothesized that a significant number of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 may still benefit from antiviral therapy. "

So this played fundamentally into the design of STRIVE at the outset. Viral replication is still occuring - lets try to stop it. And there's a good chance Paxlovid will be announced as the next candidate for the same reason.

To an outsider it seems that SNG also ticks this specific box perfectly and has proved it in the SG018 datasets - but for some reasonand as far as we know - they've never found any traction. Unfathomable and begs the question WHY is SNG001 not a prime candidate for Strive ? we won't know until the AGM I guess when we can ask why NIH didn't like Sprinter as much as Synairgen and the peer review did ?

Sorry - these paragraphs ... from Richard's Jan 5th message

"The accumulated non-clinical and clinical data has strengthened our conviction that SNG001 has potential as a broad-spectrum antiviral which could be directed towards patients infected with a wide range of viruses including influenza, RSV, coronaviruses, parainfluenza viruses and others. As it stands today, there are no broad-spectrum antivirals approved for use in patients with severe viral lung infections who are at increased risk of progressing to severe disease or death, and this is in the context of more than 3 million people a year being hospitalised due to these infections in the US alone. It is then perhaps not surprising that this also means there is no precedent for a broad-spectrum antiviral clinical development programme. Designing and determining a clinical pathway for this approach is complex, as there are multiple viruses being targeted for different high-risk patient groups.

This is our absolute focus. The Synairgen team, and our partners and advisors, have been working relentlessly to identify the optimal clinical development programme to confirm the signals we have seen, and investigate SNG001 against this wide spectrum of respiratory viruses. "

These paragraphs confirm that we've probably been waiting in vain for STRIVE ( many having lost hope of it long ago or even suggesting it was never the trial we needed )
"This is our absolute focus" is such an unequivocal statement of intent, but without a free Platform trial, the company has no means whatsoever of pursuing the ambition. Only with huge support at huge cost to equity could Synairgen find a partner with the vision and pockets to finance this and at 13p RM holds precious few cards.
What they need is the same design as UNIVERSAL - which they're supporting - but with SNG tested as they gather the general data that might help at some unspecified future date. UNIVERSAL is gathering data from every confirmed respiratory admission - which is exactly where RM wants to take SNG
If Synairgen is looking this far ahead and somehow limps through to mid 24 or later this data could help to design the multi-virus trial that they want - but will the company still be here in 18 months time ?
I have a feeling that with the founders all past retirement age and RM himself running quickly in that direction - they might be thinking about legacy and If they manage to convince anyone that a multi viral trial is a possibility and that the data supports it - they'll be quite happy to accept a reasonable offer and stand aside.
As shareholders we'll get more from this possible future than with the company bumbling along as it is at present - possibly finding more cheap little ventures like UNIVERSAL to keep them all busy but never getting any nearer to the big one.

And then you ask what might Pfizer have done if it owned SNG and Sprinter was its P3 with the same protocol/results and failed ? And you know the answer. The expanded and redesigned and targeted P3+ would have been back up and running by the middle of last year and would have completed before Christmas. It's how they do it. Find the nugget and drill down until you prove efficacy. It's how Remdesevir has made billions for Gilead after several questionable trials.

Bizarre fruits. Are you questioning the EUA for targeted use of Paxlovid - which was granted after EPIC HR showed 89% improvement over placebo.
"CONCLUSIONS
Treatment of symptomatic Covid-19 with nirmatrelvir plus ritonavir resulted in a risk of progression to severe Covid-19 that was 89% lower than the risk with placebo, without evident safety concern" NEJM

The trial you're talking about was Pfizer's attempt to broaden the EUA into the gneral population - and it failed. SNG would have flopped with the same protocol during Omicron. Paxlovid also failed its inpatient trial.
Big pharma can do this and it's water off the duck's back - long as the main EUA remains in place and its use as a targeted (the only one remaining ) HR outpatient Covid treatment.

I googled this yesterday as we have never ever discussed SNG as a possible prophylactic candidate - and the company - to my knowledge anyway - has never mentioned it. Prophylactic drugs - like vaccines for instance - need to provide lasting protection for periods of months or years.
First find was this - but it relates to an old study of injected IFN for MS
"After a single intramuscular (IM) dose of interferon beta-1a, serum levels of these products remain elevated for at least 4 days and up to 1 week (Wiendl & Kieseier, 2003). "This is from 2017 - and the study from 2003 .

Next i searched for more recent evidence and found this NIH overview of ifn use for relapsing MS from 2019
Of the 4 interferon drugs approved for MS " Peginterferon beta-1a has an extended half-life and requires less frequent administration than other available treatments (once every 2 weeks vs every other day, 3 times per week, or weekly)
So the best injected ifn keeps working for 2 weeks, the worst for two days.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5474703/#:~:text=After%20a%20single%20intramuscular%20(IM,Wiendl%20%26%20Kieseier%2C%202003).

The study Titania posted says “The main finding from our study is that SARS-CoV-2 replication and spread within the respiratory epithelium is impaired in the presence of either RSV or IAV. In addition, that reduction is time-dependent,”
The best time for this inhibition was at the 24 hr point.
So if you had an RSV or IAV infection 24 hrs before Sars Cov 2 infection you'd do better as the interferon response had already been triggered - and the body was already producing more interferons. This of course makes sense.
It's a good study and can join the growing folder of supportive evidence but it is only marginally relevant and unless we have other data that shows SNG gives long term protection in the lungs then we shouldn't get too excited.

But as you know I'm not an MD so If anyone can actually make the case - using our data or studies, rather than inviting people to google - then I'd really like to hear it and the board would be very grateful. For SNG to work as a prophylactic it would surely either need to remain in the system long after the 14 days of treatment (which my first 2 links suggests it doesn't - even if inhalation is a safer way of administering Igfn there's no evidence I'm aware of that this method alone would change the evidence that exists for injected Ifn) or it would have to effect a semi permanent molecular change of some kind to programme the body to produce more in the presence of a respiratory virus.

Setting aside the problems concerning cost and the huge diifficulty of identifying the patient cohort - proven prophylaxis could possibly be a huge game changer for the drug.
1. What evidence does the company have that SNG has prophylactic potential. Protecting for months or years
2. Explain how this might work. Linking to any relevant studies. (and refering to the above paragrap

Synairgen did brilliantly in paying Rick Bright to do this - and have partnered with a respectable publication. that's enough.
The two came as a package and the publication date was almost certainly the next available issue.
But we're pals - so I'll leave whatever you wish to add where it is - uncountered. Toodaloo.

You dislike accuracy Fruits - you'd rather swim around in a soup of half truths that support your relentless enthusiasm. The man who writes
"The magazine has published articles by more than 150 Nobel Prize-winning scientists. If it's good enough for them....."

Everyone else agrees that it's good but definitely an ad. And clearly the truth is It's not good enough for them. If it was good enough for them there would be no caveat reminding everyone that Synairgen is a commercial partner.

and follows it up with this nonsense
"It looks like a carefully honed PR strategy being executed. "

That last line nearly put my back out again and it's only just gone back in.

It certainly would have been Wigster. And it's very nice to see - as was the sight of Rick Bright on that panel. The single best public outing for Synairgen last year. And no better place to spend your money in the States, regardless of the content being paid for or not. As long as it's not presented as something it isn't on here and we're all aware that it does not carry the editorial weight of SA.

TP that's very kind. Happy to say that i'm on the mend. On my way out for my first physio appointment since the scan - but i've been working on some good exercises to release the tension and "floss" the nerve. It's still not possible to enjoy the undulating glories of Richmond Park again but i can limp out into the flatter terrain of Bushy which is directly opposite our house. Hopefully I'll be properly mobile by the time the rhododendrums are filling the Isabella plantation with colour. best wishes to you and all in our little band

Nicer board today. V welcome. We can disgree with civillity and green box the absolute rotters.