Member Info for Dingodog1

Hi extrader, i think those ascertions are reasonable in terms of what SP could be.

However, if you own differing quanties of shares then the overall value relative to ORPH changes.

100k shares in ORPH at 55p would be worth £55k
But said 100k shares would only result in 33k shares in Poolbeg, so at 7p per share that is only £2,310, or an equivalent of 2.31p per ORPH share.

So a guestimation of 100p across all entities is certainly sensible, but if the shares held across all entities differ then the equivalent shareholder return certainly wont be ORPH shares held x 100p

I am sure this is understood, but it is difficult to forecast overall return for us shareholders until we know how many shares we will own in each entity and the respective share prices upon IPO.

I am excited for what is in store, but naturally have no idea what my ORPH and associated holdings will be worth in 12 months. I expect a lot more than today :-)

100 merchants already? Fanstastic. I would imagine that 30 or so of those are the individual THG brands/websites. But still, 100 is amazing with no advertising.

Exponential growth ahoy

Milk, i am not commenting on overall potential nor am i saying that we as shareholders wont benefit. The point i was making was the objective one that £200m ORPH to £700m combined (a 3.5 bag) wont be a return experienced by PI investors

Its still great. Undoubtedly. But if, say, ORPH became £500m and DIM, Poolbeg, imutex and prep were all valued at £200m in a year then that combined £700m is not a 3.5 bag for investors from today's approx £200m mcap.

The combined mcap rise undoubtedly is a 3.5 bag across the group, but current ORPH shareholders wont be getting a like for like growth in the spin offs due to the 50% or so dilution to raise funds per spin off.

Free shares is free shares. Not saying it is a bad thing at all. We will all do well if we hold our current ORPH shares for the next 12 months and beyond, the point i was making is that CF's £700m in 12 months does not equate to an equivalent uplift in PI value due to the dilution required per spin off.

Looking even further ahead i hope we can get a combined mcap of many billions. But for now i'll be happy with £700m within 12 months, which will hopefully see me approx 2-2.5 bag from my present investment

Milk, my comments concern the combined value within 12 months of approx. £700m. Orph could be approx £500m (1.5 bag from a £200m mcap ~ today's/recent mcap) and spins offs could have a mcap of £200 mcap, which is perhaps only an extra 0.5-1 bag equivalent to your orph investment, due to dilution.

CF would then have achieved the £700m combined mcap (great news) but that wont correspond to the % uplift in a PI's investment due to the dilution in the spin offs

Milkmonsta, if ORPH has a £200m mcap, the spin outs wont have a £500m mcap (to make the golden £700m).

To achieve £700m mcap, significant growth in ORPH is required/expected. Perhaps ORPH will grow to, say, £500m mcap. The spin offs may then add a further £200m mcap, but our current ratio of investment value to orph mcap will be significantly reduced for those spin off companies. £200m mcap in a spin off will probably equate to an equivalent value of a £50-100m increase in mcap for orph (due to dilution)

When this was first mentioned our mcap was about £200m and i naively had visions of a £700m/$1bn mcap within 12 months (3.5 bag). The reality is, a significant portion of this combined mcap will be spin out shares which will naturally suffer significant dilution. The reality of a combined £700m/$1bn mcap is probably "only" a 2 bag in terms of shareholder value of investments

Still a fantastic return if this can be achieved in a year. I didnt know if anyone else factored in the inevitable dilution and the effect on the return of shareholder value?

I am not deramping btw, and i am a long term holder, i just wanted to make the point that if the combined mcap is achieved, we wont be seeing that level of shareholder value growth. Still a potentially great return, but not £200-£700m (3.5 bag). My estimate is 2-2.5 bag once that combined mcap is achieved

I would suspect a takeover attempt it we are successful. We would provide a ready to go system that could be very attractive to would be buyers, but i would expect a very attractive asking price.

The potential is massive, but it will probably be realised by another owner once we have sold for £x per share when the foundations have been layed, imo

"The Hut Group is an ecommerce business that sells own-brand and third-party products covering health and beauty, fashion, accessories and sport across 160 websites in 35 languages. Over the years it has acquired a diverse array of notable brands, including Zavvi, Coggles and Illamasqua."

Looks promising. The hut group own lots of smaller businesses, so this should see MODE adopted by numerous websites from this one merchant.

More exciting announcements over the next few weeks per JR on twitter

Very interesting, and a decent merchant to have signed out. I cant find much more info on this. I cant see that either the Hut nor MODE have announced it. Perhaps an RNS tomorrow morning before the markets open :-)

GB has shared (on a couple of occasions) a slide showing the market size for PD. The bottom line states 2.1bn people would be worth $5.28bn for installation alone.

China has a population of 1.44bn, we will hopefully be signing a JV with China Resources in the next few weeks. China Resources is partially owned by the Chinese Gov.

If CR are involved, why wouldn't they aim to go nationwide within China? And if they do, total one off revenues of 1.44/2.1*5.28 = $3.62bn... x49% = $1.77bn...

Hmmmm. Would obviously take a while to prepare that many units, but China alone could be worth a lot, potentially $1.77bn for the 49%... and even is only 5% of just china is utilised, that is a turnover of $88m for the 49%... ignoring reoccuring revenue.

A lot of potential. And all speculation on my part at present, but if PD only makes a small wave in China with CR, it could be worth a heck of a lot of DVRG (£60m mcap)

Just beat me to it Trillsg!

In particular "things are now in place for an exciting H2" :-D

https://mobile.twitter.com/gjbrandon/status/1401487016664121352

Thanks greypanther and rubey. Things seem to be happening at WN. The next few weeks should be exciting. I just hope we get official progress updates from Rathlin to prevent all the twitter rumours

It's used to melt parafin wax/heavy crude oil build up after a well has been shut in for a while. Interesting. Looks like they are cleaning up the well, probably prior to perf gun. I dont know what order all this happens in, but it would make sense that they wouldnt want a clogged well when perfing. Would be great if anyone with more knowledge on the process could clarify the process and likely order

There have been a few examples of competitor tech (breath test wise) but i haven't seen any competitors PD wise. Waste water monitoring is massive and has a huge demand and requirement world wide. Lil'ol DVRG cannot meet that demand, despite the fact its got the answers. Partner with a big gun and all of a sudden those answers become solutions to all who need them. Anyone who thought DVRG could go it alone were sorely mistaken. The fact GB knows this, and has acted on it, means that now the DVRG/CR combo can genuinely provide the products to satisfy the demand. And if it cant satisfy it entirely, it can certainly do a heck of a lot more than DVRG ever could alone. 49% (or perhaps 30% after ecowater buddies take their share) of billions is better than 70% (or so after eco buddies) of a few million.

DVRG probably aren't getting much/any press coverage due to the NDA's. The telegraph cant do a 2 page spread if no one gives them any information. GB has confirmed we are speaking to the right people, and for microtox PD, the right people are at government level, not the broadsheets.

Once/if these deals start to land i can expect us to hear a lot more about DVRG in the press. Take ORPH as an example. Massive news coverage once they had signed a contract with the UK gov. Not before (although there was a leak, from what i recall!)

Does anyone have an idea how much DVRG will retain from its 49% interest in the CR JV (should it come into fruition)?

49% is the advertised share that we get, but surely that 49% is then split amongst the other companies involved (Dell, Avacta, Aptamer etc). If i am wrong with this assertion (i would love to be) please let me know. But i didnt think Microtox PD (and eventually BT) was the sole product of DVRG and that it requires the input of other entities

Agreed, Q4 x4 + a year of modern water, suggests next to no growth in 2021. We know already that this isnt the case with both skin trust club and the CR MOU (albeit not a JV YET).

It could be that seasonally Q4 2020 was expected to be higher and that Q1 2021 would naturally regress. With that in mind, four lots of Q4 on average across the year is a positive movement compared to the equivalent for 2020. However, skin trust club and CR alone should lead to revisions. I expect we will get a revision over the summer

A lot of the new investors coming onto the market want the high octane quick profit scenario as seen with crypto and meme stocks. The idea of investing £1k today and becoming a millionaire tomorrow fuels the spikes in the likes of dogecoin and AMC (not amur!).

When these younger investors dip their toes into the AIM market, also known for rapid fluctuations, they expect the same sort of returns and then get impatient when the share price doesnt move as they (and over zelous posters) expect. The best businesses take time to grow. A lot of younger investors would rather take their chances on pump n dump style stocks, akin to gambling

The movements associated with the covid bubble and stocks like ARB over the past year wet the appetite. They attract the wrong type of investor. Steady as she goes is preferable over 20% up days followed by 30% down days

I see DVRG as a solid investment. But it takes time. 100% over the past 12 months is fine by me. I would also be happy with 100% over the next 12 months, although i suspect it will be more ;-)

I think the point concerning manufacturing is very valid. I believe GB has indicated that there are around 3,000 "devices" installed already, world wide, which isnt very much considering Modern Water has been in business for 30 years or so. That to me indicates that present manufacturing capacity is very slow.

The demand for an automated sewage/water monitoring process is massive world wide. DVRG cannot meet it alone, if at all. We need a JV with a massive manufacturer to be able to get these units produced.

China resources sounds like the type of manufacturer to aid in this process. We may well look to appoint others, we may not need to. Roll on the end of June :-)

Deepverge is under valued imo, but probably as the potential hasnt been priced in. The chinese resources MOU is just that, it hasnt become a JV (yet). BT has potential, but hasnt received the CE mark (yet). PD is active, but hasnt led to any major contracts (yet). Skintrust has potential but we dont have any numbers (yet)

Once some or all of the "yets" become confirmed i would anticipate a significant rerate.

The shareholders who frequent this board know of the potential. The exellent research by the likes of TRat and the crumbs left by GB really do offer a window into the potential of the company. The wider market doesnt see this research nor does it make these connections, and so, for now at least, the potential value is being over looked.

In 6 months time i expect that the SP will no longer be in the 30's (and i dont mean 20's or 10's!)