Member Info for Dingodog1

Mcap is struggling to push beyond £50m, although it is testing 48p again and again.

JR believes we are under valued vs competitors and i would tend to agree:

- FCA regulated (unlike most/all competitors)
- A crypto trading platform that is already live (proof of concept) and can be expanded to include more coins if desired
- A payment platform that is going live very shortly and has a number of merchants signed up including THG and a cancer charity (proof of concept).
- crypto rewards (suits the average millennial more than nectar points!)

The payment platform will be fine tuned in time, but essentially the next hurdle is to get as many merchants signed up as possible as MODE slowly grows its market share.

Imo all of the above results in MODE being under valued. Add in the team driving the business forward and their background and you start to realise that this app wasnt developed by a uni student in their spare time. It is developed by people who know the market they are taking on.

I dont think MODE will get the chance to become a household name like VISA, PayPal or Mastercard because i think we will be taken out long before we get the chance. I haven't a clue how much for, or when, but i would imagine within 3 years and i wouldn't bet against the value being in the billions based on the takeover price of other similar (albeit bigger, at present) fintechs

The live listing on OTC (MODGF) will likely be the shot in the arm the SP needs.

All imo, but £40-50m looks undervalued

Thanks for that gidget, so q4 most likely. Hopefully by Christmas

Good point Gidget, i hadnt grasped that aspect of the RNS. Presumably we have been suspended from trading as the relisting will be on the main market

The next question relates to how long it will likely take for the RTO to take place and the shares re-admitted for trading?

A similar RTO occured between spinnaker opportunities and Kanabo Research (KNB). A quote from the earliest spinnaker RNS i could locate:

"Further to the announcement on 26 February 2019 regarding the proposed reverse take-over of medicinal cannabis company, Kanabo Research Limited (the "RTO" or the "Proposed Acquisition")"

KNB was admitted to trading in February 2021, almost two years after the target was identified.

However, it doesnt look as if spinnaker was ever suspended from trading based on a scan of the RNS's (unlike UKSPAC). The RNS indicates a name change after a number of updates concerning the progress on the RTO.

Perhaps the circumstances surrounding KNB are not so similar to what we can expect here, but it certainly took a long time for spinnaker to become KNB from the point the target was identified

Skin trust club:

Capacity for 20,000 tests per month, 240,000 per year

Plans to expand to the US and China at a similar level. That is capacity for 720,000 tests per year.

However, most subscription packages require 4 tests per subscription, which uses the facility capacity, so divide by four tests per customer equates to around 180,000 customers. Average subscription price is around £100, so around £18 million revenue a year

The data acquired from such an expansion will be worth billions eventually

Lots of potential!

You need to divide by 2.98 to establish the equivalent value in relation to ORPH. 10p / 2.98 = 3.35p

Thanks for the detailed post Gerard, i know it will be appreciated by the wider community on this board.

I am an accountant by trade, but sticking some pretty words together doesnt sound too difficult, does it? ;-)

Jokes aside, its seems we are set to go. I appreciate you are privy to more than you can divulge, but i imagine the next 6 months are going to be very exciting, whether you are able to agree or not :-)

The humanitarian benefit of such advances cannot be understated, and the world really needs to take notice, but hey, nothing wrong with us all making a tidy sum in the process!

Let that sink in. Why wouldnt governments world wide want to have this solution? Why continue to insist on shot in the dark tests at the taxpayers (and planets, due to plastic) expense? Why not invest taxpayers money into a solution that provides a future-proof pandemic detection system.

PD works. Its through the trials. DVRG are near to agreeing a deal to provide a worldwide distribution network to all who want it

We have the answers to some of the pandemic questions. It's called microtox PD. Come and get it!

Another step in the right direction :-)

Are we sure it was definitely a buy? At a price of 32.0p it would have to have been well timed for the last hour or so. I bought at 1pm for about 32.6p. The SP did dip since but a buy of that size probably didnt occur at the click of a finger and would have needed working through

I can never trust the buy/sell metric on this site. It always seems to base it on the average SP, or whatever it is they do.

Can anyone confirm it was definitely a buy?

It's been theorised by others on this BB but the SP has dropped to the early 30's in recent weeks, coinciding with CF's desire to buy more shares. I wonder whether there is any SP management afoot? Is it even possible?

CF indicated in the recent meeting/event that he had already tried to buy more shares but the nomad said he couldnt as he held inside price sensitive information, which he expects to divulge in the "next few days" of the meeting.

The fact he tried to buy post results does suggest he wanted to take his moment when the SP was depressed. He had missed the POLB spin off but given he will hold additional POLB shares (much to the chagrin of a certain poster) perhaps he isnt too concerned.

This as-current witheld/to be announced news is likely to spark a rise in SP, at least based on CF's comments. It looks like he cannot buy until it's RNS'd which may in turn force him to buy at a higher price, which no one wants to do if they can avoid it. Has CF tried to "avoid it" courtesy of SP management in terms of RNS releases? It doesnt look like the nomad allowed him to buy when he wanted to, but he still tried.

When he buys the SP will respond well, so i think we are due for a nice increase over the next week or so, but naturally he wont want to over pay

Can anyone recall the historic mcap of the company over the past few months? I have recently topped up at 32p and note that the mcap is showing as £65m on google? I dont recall it ever being that high, at least not at 32p. I wonder whether google has updated its register for the new share issue already? Officially they havent been approved/issued, although i expect that to be happening as i type

Hi Chesh, what news are we expecting tomorrow afternoon?

I am looking to top up but am personally waiting until AGM approval of the share issue which will likely see the SP fall back a little, imo

Very true. Poland is one of those countries that isnt necessarily associated with warm weather, but it can be blisteringly warm as well as extremely cold.

34°c is very possible in poland. It's 30°c today

If he has flown out to China (looks likely) then i doubt he's done that unless he is signing off on the JV. Negotiations may still be ongoing, but if it was dead in the water then any ongoing communication could be done from the UK

We do have office(s) in China, so it is possible that this is a routine visit, but given the proximity to the supposed MOU finalisation date you would imagine the two are connected

There have been some rumbling by a few PI's in recent days over the effect of the poolbeg spin off on the SP. Many are stating that poolbeg, as well as most/all other spin offs, are not on the balance sheet and therefore should have no/little effect on the SP.

These people are not considering the fact that the SP of the company has little to do with the net asset value of a company. In its most basic sense a company is worth it's net assets, which is balanced by equity. A company is never sold on those metrics alone as it ignores many off balance sheet considerations such as work in pipeline, demand for services etc etc. Given ORPHs past as a loss making company its NA value is probably quite low (recent results confirm the group value to 31/12/2020 to be £22,297,000). It may well be true that this value does not incl poolbeg/DIM/prep/imutex.

However, the SP considers many many factors in addition to the net asset value. Shares can be seen as a commodity of sorts, the value of which rises and falls depending on demand. The prospect if spin off shares in poolbeg undoubtedly attracted short term traders/beneficiaries who fancied a slice of the poolbeg spin off. This would have resulted in pre spin off demand going up, and then, as those PI's sold the demand dropped off. This is in part why the SP has risen and fallen over the past few days. There is also sentiment, that seems low in some people's eyes, and likely not helped by the results.

So, the fall in SP isnt CF lieing/MM screwing the PI about whether poolbeg has any balance sheet value. It is lilely as a result of investors trading the share short term. We certainly cannot value poolbeg on the drop of SP in ORPH as the value of poolbeg is still not known, albeit we have been given some indications (pre funding/dilution).

I am relaxed as things stand, but the events of recent weeks seem to have rattled certain PI's on this board which has led to a bit of mud slinging. Hopefully things return to normal before long :-)

The new companies require two things, the IP/assets (our contribution) and cash (an investors contribution)

The cash is provided in exchange for shares in the spin off. If ORPH shareholders get, say, 200m shares in poolbeg, an investor providing cash will then get 50m, 100m, 200m (who knows) shares in exchange for cash (the amount of which is unknown at present)

So, if poolbeg is worth £20m at IPO, original ORPH shareholders will only own, say, 50% of that value

All will become clear in the next few weeks post the poolbeg roadshow to raise finance

£400m mcap for ORPH is 60p per share

If the spin offs are valued at £300m in a year then i would expect that to be at the expense of at least 50% dilution. So, probably an equivalent of £150m of mcap in ORPH. So, an extra 22.5p

So, as a very rough estimate, £400m ORPH + £300m spin offs (£700m combined ~ the golden $1bn) is probably an equivalent of about 82.5p in ORPH as of today

Spin offs are free shares, but as has rightly been mentioned, we will be diluted significantly so predicting the value of ones ORPH and associated investment in 12 months is difficult

I have a feeling the £50m will be exceeded. Under promise, over deliver

PE ratio is price per share over earnings per share

Earnings per share is PROFIT over shares

We are loss making at present (to FY 2020) Turnover doesnt = profit, so forward PE's etc are not the best metric for valueing the company at the moment, at least when trying to determine what we should be worth

One thing is for certain, free shares in a company cannot lose you money (unless ORPH tanks short term following spin off)

We are all in for additional gains across our ORPH + associated spin offs, but its very difficult to ascertain how much.

I would love an equivalent value of £1 ORPH share within 12 months, whatever the micro breakdown is per equivalent holding.

My overall % return on my original ORPH investment will always need to factor in the value of the subsequent free spin offs. I see a pretty decent return as of today. The potential is massive