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Spot on, Megla.

There are two main issues as I see things that are overhanging both Serica and the UK O&G sector at large (excluding the possibility of a low-ball take out by Mercuria post 23 Sept):

1. What the dishonest & incompetent Reeves announces on 30 Oct about restricting future capital allowances (they'll be reduced and this will be enought to kill most future drilling and hasten NS exit for many.

2. The unknown as to whether the Supreme Court will effectively declare all future UKCS drilling activity illegal (2 cases: Rosebank and Jackdaw: both FDP approved but awaiting FID) when it hears a case brought by Greenpeace and "Uplift" (who??) next year. The Supreme Court found for the appellant (a Mrs Finch- a stooge put up for the purpose) when five of the 11 unelected Lords and one Lady who comprise the Supreme Court judged the Horse Hill EIA approval (a fundamental part of the FDP process) "illegal" - 5 years after its original approval. Clearly this unelected body of judges has bought 100% into the myth: "we're all gonna die if we don't stop producing fossil energy NOW - THIS MINUTE". Utter garbage, but Miliband won't be challenging the action. The NSTA (a UK Govt quango) approved the FDP but will now presumably say it shouldn't have. It is up to the operators (Shell and Equinor) to fight their case, but they might just walk away and leave the UKCS to stew. It's all become too silly - unruly children and brainwashed morons are in charge of a whole industry that's vital to the UK economy. Nothing can come of it but failure. Britain loves failures (hence the huge welfare budget) and promotes the politics of envy, so it's little wonder killing a success story (which will harm wealth creators and damage "capitalist" shareholders) is high on Miliband's agendas. It's helping China of course (EV batteries, wind turbines and solar panels by the gazillion). "So much the better" cries the commie cretin Ed.

Most open-minded intelligent people (alas too few of the population) don't believe the c.rap that's spouted by those with vested interests in renewables. Britain is carbon energy deficient - and will be for decades yet. Whatever the ruling won't change global oil output. If Britain can't get oil sourced in the UK (which extracts it more efficiently than virtually any other country) then it will import it from somewhere the carbon footprint and cost is higher. But what judges who want to be on the right side of history decide will be critical to the UK O& G industry's future. The adults are out of patience.

Maybe the anti-oil factions plan to save us all by making it illegal to import any oil & gas at all? When a country like the UK is run by people congratulating the naked emperor on his finest silks , anything is possible.

Make what you will of this:

https://www.supremecourt.uk/about/biographies-of-the-justices.html

https://www.supremecourt.uk/cases/uksc-2022-0064.html

dyor

Never forget the whole drive to make Britain a carbon energy-free zone within 5 years comes from people and organisations with vested interests in returning us to the technoligy of windmills and other forms of "clean" energy that can't be geared up to provide the energy needed to power the nation.

The actions these vested interests continue to promote without qualification should have been rationally, intelligently and patiently debunked at the outset. Considered against a background of the Universe and 4.5bn years of the Earth's history and exposed as daft. Instead, the garbage spouted by fiercely biased climate change zealots, led by people like Gore, Clinton and Obama (inter alia - there are many, many with vested interests today) the movement continues to grow. Britain is likely to be one of the fisrt of the developed nations to experience the folly of what people like Miliband and Reeves have steered us towards - the edge of the economic abyss. We'll see within 6 mths there's no going back - under the current government at lease. Whether recovery will be possible after 2029 is moot - it seems unlikely many oil & gas cos will want anything to do with the UK at all. Trust in Govt will have gone forever.

The renewables indistry is now worth countless trillions. Organisations and individuals who stand to benefit from the UK population losing what we all know will be lost - inc the choices we have as how we go about living our lives. ie what we won't be allowed to do. But still people swallow the myths and the movement continues to grow. Experts who depart from the script are labeled "climate deniers" and "cancelled" despite providing irrefutable date to debunk the nonsense spouted by loudmouthed ignoremi who are incapable of rational, independent thought. The mission continues for the zealots who are unswerving in their determination - which is that all fossil energy production has to stop. Everything else is of no consequence.

The West has been brainwashed into believing the garbage that's been fed to it for the last 40 years, with the considerable help of the left-leaning MSM. It is founded on the notion that humans can control climate by reducing the amount of a gas that is essential for life and has had the effect (by increasing from something like 280ppm to 420ppm - the atmosphere in nuclear subs which submariners spend months breathing in is set at 3,000-5000 ppm) of making the earth today a good deal greener than it was 40 years ago.

Keep spreading the message - maybe a few months into the inevitable power cuts that will soon start will bring some sanity. China at least will continue to prosper from the folly of the West (essentially Europe, because the US will carry on fracking - say one thing; do another- plus ca change).

Is there any reason to disbelieve this?

https://www.realclearenergy.org/video/2023/05/16/inconvenient_truth_32_climate_predictions_proven_false_899219.html

Just found this in the Spectator (in 2021 - 12 years after the event):

"..............That is not to question, of course, that global temperatures – as measured from thermometers – have risen over the past century. No, Climategate didn’t ‘disprove’ global warming or show that it was a scam. What is did confirm is that climate scientists are using highly questionable methods to construct a record of historic temperatures. Moreover, it showed the lengths to which some climate scientists would go to try to silence colleagues with whom they disagreed – in one case threatening to try to remove an editor from an academic journal. Theft or no theft, Climategate revealed important matters of public interest – especially given the extent to which we are now being asked to adjust our lifestyles to reduce carbon emissions – and the BBC is quite wrong to try to dismiss the public interest side and present it merely as some dark and dastardly crime".

Make up your own minds:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v2nhssPW77I

Dr Judity Curry refers in the linked video below to "Climategate". The University of East Anglia (which has always been a leading admirer of the emperor's silks) was hacked and compromising emails etc were published on various blogs. I haven't been able to find a single critical comment about what unbiased scientists (inc Dr Curry) found unethical (worse than). Quelle surprise.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9tPGcDXfVnc

Keep spreading the message. It's a hoax - and one that will have disastrous effects on our way of life and our freedom of choice.

Imagine a four-way discussion on the subject between Rachel Reeves, Ed Miliband, Prof Happer and Dr Curry.........

This would all be highly amusing were it not for people like Miliband giving £11.2bn of our money to "less well off countries" (are there any?) to further their CO2 reduction aspirations (which will lead to a less green planet, increased starvation in undeveloped countries and the prevention of most of Africa (inter alia) from raising its living standards):

Weekend reading. I might post a few more articles by people who are amply qualified to tell the truth - and do so to the extent it is permitted. It inevitably leads towards less freedom for individuals to live their lives as they would wish and would be allowed to in anything other than a socialist nation aspiring to become akin to East Germany before the wall came down:

https://www.realclearenergy.org/video/2023/05/16/inconvenient_truth_32_climate_predictions_proven_false_899219.html

Sorry - got a bit jumbled. Should have read:

"Sunak wasn't going to impose a WFT on them because they'd have simply increased their prices and he'd gone public about paying people's energy bills).

Because of the dishonest application of the data (to get to normal prices of oil and gas over the last 20 years) it will be almost impossible to avoid paying 78% tax on all profits - not just the "extraordinary" ones - for the full term chosen to milk UKCS operators dry. And a new form of EPL will be introduced as soon as the old one is lifted. Reeves has already as good as said this.

Easy income sources are never ceded by Govts. Does it matter to politicians if it ruins the country? "No" has to be the answer - otherwise it wouldn't be in the state it is after 27 years of socialist and wishy-washy social democratic.

Conservatism. Give it a short while and compulsory cessation of work of a Friday morning for prayer will be something people quietly moan about anywhere except in public. That's unless Starmer hands Putin the keys before it happens

Compooter: both oil and gas prices have to remain below the "normal" prices for 6 consecutive months before the super-tax (EPL) gets lifted. Trouble is, in setting the "norm", Sunak and Hunt dishonestly failed to take into account two long periods (Covid and the Saudis vs the US frackers oil glut) when oil prices dropped to the $20s. Plus he failed to take into account inflation over the whole period. Any honest Gov't intent on taxing only "extraordinary" profits at a particular rate (even if it was 100%) would first have said how "ordinary" profits were to be calculated. Hunt refused to say what the thresholds were until he saw how things were panning out and he had a better fix on how much the OBR thought the heist on the sector would raise before 2029, which the Conservatives insanely believed they might remain in office until.

Make no mistake, the minimum rate of tax payable by the entire UKCS upstream on all its activities (under the Conservatives) was 75%. And this was increased by tax on all the items of expenditure (inc decommissioning and interest costs, denial of the use of B/fwd losses) operators were henceforth able to offset only to the extent of 40%. A fundamental of tax was breached in a single move - the right to offset capital costs against profits, always in full and usually immediately. Labour has done what Labour always does with taxation - taken what's there and put it on steroids. If Reeves removes the ability to claim capital allowances against "extraordinary" profits (ie she allows 100% of spend but only on 40% of the profits) the tipping point will have been reached and UKCS focused O&G companies will quit the NS in their droves. Many have already gone. I have absolutely no idea why Cox said in todays H1 statement said Serica had anything (except Buchan) pencilled in for the UK - he appeared to regard it as Serica's No1 option. We would appear to have been led a merry dance about SQX targeting Norway, with Latin going head-on with the clowns in Govt who are ruining Britain as a nation with their insane adherence to the emperor's clothes movement known as "the existential threat posed to humanity by climate change brought about by fossil fuels". Don't be so silly. Yet the masses (and those with vested interests) cheer it on as it leads us to the cliffs.

The upstream industry was the wrong sector to target the most anyway. The downsteam operators made all the money and are still doing so today - the likes of Centrica and the other retail suppliers, plus the petrol forecourt industry. But Sunak wasn't going to impose a WFT on them because they'd have simply increased their prices and he'd gone public about paying people's energy bills) over the last 20 years (in order to make it almost impossible to avoid paying 75% tax on all profits - not just the "extraordinary" ones) for the full term chosen to milk UKCS operators dry.

I can't be bothered to write any more. It's all too silly

I still have difficulty getting to the bottom of what actually went on that's led us to where we are now. What we do know if that all Serica's key players have now quit the scene. I won't speculate on what terms.

I think the agreement precluded Mercuria from increasing its stake in SQZbeyond its resent level until 18 months after the relationship agreement was signed (on 23 March 2023. There's still a rotten stench about the whose transaction afaic. 27% of shareholders voting against it and being totally ignored has to be close to a record. Nothing would surprise me from here (except maybe the shares increasing in value).

https://rapercapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/open-letter-Serica-Board.pdf

Re: "the oil price drop could eventually mean little to zero EPL for the government".............

............that might be true if it was only the so-called windfall profits the Govt was taxing at an additional 38%. Tax at 78% is charged on ALL UKCS-sourced profits.

As stated earlier, the current breed of politicians is dishonest to the core. The sector that made the most out of the spike in oil & gas prices when Putin went haywire in 2022 was the downstream energy one - the retail suppliers (Centrica et al) and the forecourt operators). But Sunak didn't want to tax them an extra 38% because it wouldn't have been popular. Besides, they'd have just increased their prices more to make up for the WFT. As Sunak was set on paying everyone's energy bills (more popularity) it would have been expensive too.

Might as well tax those polluting NS oil & gas companies the uneducated masses have been brainwashed into believing are going to kill us all by 2050 with all that CO2 the planet would welcome a lot more of .

Labour's just doing what it always does. Inherit existing taxes, increase these, then add new ones

Who'd invest in the UK O&G sector (apart from us)?

Https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/technical-note-energy-profits-levy-energy-security-investment-mechanism/energy-profits-levy-energy-security-investment-mechanism-technical-note

Note: the release mechanism has been set up in such a way as to a miracle being needed for this dishonestly constructed (and applied) tax (EPL) to be lifted. Whilst there is some correlation between Brent and NPB, price levels differ. The main reason the "floor" will not be achieved before the latest date these dishonest clowns have now picked for it to do so (before no doubt introducing another tax in its place "to avoid price shocks" as the hateful halfwit Reeves recently stated) they will tell everyone is fair but will simply speed up the inevitable end of the North Sea as a viable basin to operate in, is that the 20 year period Hunt chose to establish a "normal" price for oil & gas included nearly 3 years of Covid (when prices were in the $20s, the 3 year period before that when the Saudis turned on the taps to hurt the US frackers who'd entered the market without OPEC's blessing - Brent fell to $27) and no inflation was considered in the whole 20 year period.

Dishonest to the core.

The whole company is presently valued by the market at £8m less than the cash value of its b/fwd tax losses.

All its other assets are apparently worth nothing (including the £12m+ it has in the bank, the proven and prospective oil in the licences it has interests in, and the intellectual capital that is present in the ability and experience of its key directors/managers).

These politicians haven't got a clue, although it won't be long before they see the effects of their destructive actions. Trouble is by then they'll have moved on and living comfortably in one or other of the properties they've bought (and had maintained) at our expense - ie out of taxpayers' money. What's left of it anyway, after their crass mismanagement of the economy of a nation that used to show the rest of the world the way, but now conjures a vision more like East Germany in the 1970s.

Margaret Thatcher came up with the expression: "Socialism is fine............until you run out of other people's money". Never a truer word was spoken. Another expression (from "Animal Farm") to describe what we're already know is true, thanks to a thick (or sick minority) of people in the UK voting Starmer and the other Commie Corbynistas into office on 4 July - a dark day in Britain's history: "All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others".

This takes some beating: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2013/2588/contents/made

He "served" as Director of Public Prosecutions from 2008 to 2013. His present worth is estimated at £7.7m, which I doubt includes the actuarial value of his pension arrangements. He must have been a good saver.

It's 5th Sept, it's raining cats and dogs and the temperature (in Devon) is 16°C. Must be existential climate change. That's it - I'm joining Just Stop Oil and intend writing to Greta to thank her for her incredible efforts in stopping anything that is either good for us, or enjoyable. Have you noticed that all these climate freaks, left wing politicians, savours of the planet types etc have something in common? They very rarely smile.

:-))

Just to add...........is Kraken oil not heavy?

I posted this on the JOG board earlier.

..........from Enquest's H1 2024 results announcement this morning. The political dishonesty started with Sunak, was promoted by Hunt and has now been put on steroids by Labour. I doubt Reeves has the understanding, vision or gravitas that's needed to prevent Britain's continuing slide towards international obscurity and increasingly poor living standards for its people, but the hope that sense will prevail must remain. "Anywhere but Britain" would appear to be Enquest's message. Spot on.

"We are disappointed with the ongoing application of the Energy Profits Levy despite operating in an environment where no windfall conditions exist. The current fiscal regime is causing irreversible damage to an indigenous and strategically important UK industry. The UK energy industry needs a progressive tax regime that recognises the maturity of the North Sea and re-establishes the UK as a globally competitive investment basin. The oil and gas sector is the key to a Just Energy Transition, protecting the skills, jobs and resources required to deliver the decarbonisation projects of the future and, with stability and the right fiscal stimulus, can deliver material UK economic growth through billions of pounds of investment-ready projects. EnQuest has to date invested over £4 billion in the UK and has the capacity and opportunities to do so again.

"The Group's growth strategy remains robust, with a focus on delivering a transformative UK acquisition; utilising our differentiated operating capability and significant tax asset to deliver material incremental value. Given the prevailing tax regime, we are targeting UK portfolios with limited capital reinvestment programmes. Internationally, we are working on a number of growth opportunities in South East Asia where the return on capital investment is compelling. The work we have done over the past seven years to strengthen our balance sheet gives us choices, and we will continue to make value-adding strategic decisions for our shareholders."

https://www.investegate.co.uk/announcement/rns/enquest--enq/half-year-results/8400500

Note: "The Group's growth strategy remains robust, with a focus on delivering a transformative UK acquisition; utilising our differentiated operating capability and significant tax asset to deliver material incremental value. Given the prevailing tax regime, we are targeting UK portfolios with limited capital reinvestment programmes"................wonder which UK operator they've run a ruler over?

dyor

..........from Enquest's H1 2024 results announcement this morning. The political dishonesty started with Sunak, was promoted by Hunt and has now been put on steroids by Labour. I doubt Reeves has the understanding, vision or gravitas that's needed to prevent Britain's continuing slide towards international obscurity and increasingly poor living standards for its people, but the hope that sense will prevail must remain. "Anywhere but Britain" would appear to be Enquest's message. Spot on.

"We are disappointed with the ongoing application of the Energy Profits Levy despite operating in an environment where no windfall conditions exist. The current fiscal regime is causing irreversible damage to an indigenous and strategically important UK industry. The UK energy industry needs a progressive tax regime that recognises the maturity of the North Sea and re-establishes the UK as a globally competitive investment basin. The oil and gas sector is the key to a Just Energy Transition, protecting the skills, jobs and resources required to deliver the decarbonisation projects of the future and, with stability and the right fiscal stimulus, can deliver material UK economic growth through billions of pounds of investment-ready projects. EnQuest has to date invested over £4 billion in the UK and has the capacity and opportunities to do so again.

"The Group's growth strategy remains robust, with a focus on delivering a transformative UK acquisition; utilising our differentiated operating capability and significant tax asset to deliver material incremental value. Given the prevailing tax regime, we are targeting UK portfolios with limited capital reinvestment programmes. Internationally, we are working on a number of growth opportunities in South East Asia where the return on capital investment is compelling. The work we have done over the past seven years to strengthen our balance sheet gives us choices, and we will continue to make value-adding strategic decisions for our shareholders."

https://www.investegate.co.uk/announcement/rns/enquest--enq/half-year-results/8400500

dyor

Https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29789085/

Mommur, I added the bit about diving as an attempt at amusement. I accept that what I wrote might not have been strictly (or even loosely) technically correct. No form of diving, to my knowledge, lasts long and I have no idea what comes out of the breathing tube or whatever it's called. I was making a point about submariners and the "air" they breathe for long periods while they're submerged.

The main type of diving (some) young male types in the island I grew up in (in the 50s and 60s) were interested in and developed great expertise in from the age of about 14 onwards (not me, I hasten to add) was usually undertaken after dark, perhaps after a relaxing glass or two of "ohbejoyful" enjoyed with a female "holidaymaker du jour". There was (according to what I heard) usually a sandy bay nearby in which (after last orders and drinking up time) the diving could take place.

That's all I can recall (it's called selective memory failure). I left the holiday isle 50 years ago (on 23 Aug 1974) to pursue a career in the UK, where I have been resident ever since. I have recovered to the extent that my behaviour today is regarded by a number of people I know as being "almost normal". It's been a long journey involving 3 cities.

A tale of recovery (against all the odds). The shame is I'll be lucky to survive long enough to make a complete recovery and declare on my death bed: "hooray - I've made it at last - I'm normal" before gently expiring and making a mess.

Not sure if JOG falls into the normal or abnormal phase of my existence. You decide.

I don't think a bid is out of the question, with time (declining cash resources) being of the essence to JOG, whereas its two JV partners can easily afford to park Buchan until sense prevails (which is seems likely to me it will - if what's happened in NZ is anything to go by and Labour gets kicked out in 2029 (or before) by a half-sensible opposition Party). Bear in mind up to £16m could be saved on FDP approval, JOG's b/fwd losses of c.£70m @ 40% = c.£30m cash value could be fully utilised and 25mboe of 33° API oil in Buchan, J2 and Verbier could be added to someone's "reserves in waiting", plus the Cortina, Wengen & Verbier Deep prospects (3C - 200mboe?).

JOG's present "value" of £22m (in total) looks too low to me, but what do I know (I've already admitted I'm not normal - perhaps that's why I'm a "climate denier")?

Talk among yourselves.......

dyor

........"born out of ignorance, that human life will cease when the "gas of life" (CO2) increases from 420ppm to 550ppm or whatever by whenever..........quick question: what is the composition of the atmosphere on nuclear subs?""...........

...................nuclear subs can spend months under the polar icecaps and such like. The atmosphere selected for the submariners to breathe comprises the usual gases and water vapour........with a CO2 concentration of 3,000 ppm. Yes, that's right............3,000 parts per million. About 8 times the level that will kill us if it reaches this sort of level in the atmosphere in 30 to 100 years.

Funny that. I guess the people in charge just don't like submariners. I doubt they like divers (no, not those kind) either.

I think we owe it to all submariners (and quite a few other types whose lives are being stolen by too much "toxic, but fundamental to and very good for all plant and mammal life on earth" CO2, to provide Al Gore's and Greta Thunberg's email addresses so that they can write and complain to them they're having their lives stolen by "climate murderers" (ok- "deniers" - like the Holocaust ones.

Whilst they're at it, they might mention the plight of millions of people whose livelihoods (and savings) have disappeared (into whose pockets it has yet to emerge fully) as a result of the dishonest agenda ceaselessly peddled by freaks like Miliband, Reeves, Starmer and dozens of other ignoremi, who have universally failed to understand throughout the most basic of facts about our planet before speeding GB along the path of economic self-destruction towards oblivion.

This whole "climate change will kill us - and it's all caused by fossil fuels" movement is born out of and sustained by ignorance, although it's becoming increasingly clear to those who look, that certain people and organisations do rather better out of countries like the UK deciding to throw itself off a cliff. In the case of the Labour Party - fronted by Miliband on this issue - it's about control and ideology. Miliband had no difficulty lying in Parliament yesterday about cost of the ruinous (to our contryside, to our seascapes and our wallets) construction of thousands of wind turbines in the NS, regardly of the huge ecological costs (marine and wildlife).

But they won't concede. Until the effects start becoming clear to the masses, who will be "entitled" to what they had - except that they were too thick to appreciate it - until they voted in the Party they thought would give them the most for nothing.

What a sad state of affairs. How has it come to this?

dyor

These people disgust me - and should do any normal, thoughtful, half intelligent individual

This muddies the waters. Certainty, my ar5e - the opposite maybe:

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/certainty-for-oil-and-gas-industry-in-light-of-landmark-ruling

IMO Labour continues to act disingenuously in not challenging the case being brought to the Supreme Court (for which we have Blair to thank - it did away with the ultimate Sovereignty of Parliament) by Greenpeace and whoever else has nothing to do with "saving the taxpayer money". Imo that's just a lie. Presumably the NSTA will be called by Equinor and Shell (if they don't just decide to walk away, which is probably what Miliband at least would like to happen) to explain why they approved the EIA, as part of the FDP. But they'll have been briefed in advance of the case what to say, after no doubt having encouraged the licensees all along granting approvals whenever needed. "We wanted it to go ahead - honest".

There will be no point in anyone in the industry engaging with this Govt on anything if Reeves reduces CAs on 30 Oct. Why expose the industry to further lies and deceit? Imo Labour is only interested in managing the extent of the flak it's bound to get for turning Aberdeen into a ghost town and ruining the lives of tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of skilled workers and their families - sacrificed on the altar of the woke and utterly stupid conviction, born out of ignorance, that human life will cease when the "gas of life" (CO2) increases from 420ppm to 550ppm or whatever by whenever. They believe temperatures will increase as a result of the increase in CO2, when all reliable historical data shows that CO2 increase follows temperature increase in c.800 year cycles. This is a minor inconvenience to the brainwashed masses. My views on the subject are well known. Quick question: what is the composition of the atmosphere on nuclear subs? I've read too many presentations/podcasts/videos/papers on the subject, the consistent difference between those preaching "the end is nigh" and those debunking the notion is always reliable data and proven science vs extrapolation/questionable modeling. Incredibly, climate change was written into English law in 2008 - how daft is that?

Will Reeves back off in her 30 Oct Budget that promises a reduction in the CAs available for offset against EPL profits, pending the outcome of the "clarity" consultation process helpfully going on until Spring 2025? It's a difficult one to call, but I would vote "no".

Where this would leave Buchan FDP approval and FID is difficult to say. We need to find out. Whatever happens, JOG is still worth a lot more than £20m. It has £12m+ in cash, the cash value of b/fwd losses is c.£30m and it has 25mboe of oil in a proven setting.

There's not much compromise in what OEUK has set out in front of Reeves. Nor in NEO's comments about the next biggest field to Cambo & Rosebank. NEO never says anything at all, so things must be serious. We can only hope sense prevails.

dyor

It's frightening that OEUK has to explain the basics to people who are making decisions that fundamentally affect the future of our country. Politicians on both side of the House continue to fail to understand not only the UK Oil & Gas industry, but how and why the price of oil & gas is determined (inc OPEC's role in matching supply with demand), the basic mechanics of business (adult economics) and the havoc excessive taxation wreaks on a nation. 0/10 for both parties, which have been driven by easy cash, popularity with voters and political ideology. The main difference between the parties is Sunakhunt's recognition of the need to keep investing in the North Sea because, unlike Starmer, it knew that "not taking away existing licences" (which they couldn't have done anyway without being sued for billions) existing fields wouldn't meet the UK's fossil energy needs until 2050, which it was clear Starmer thought was the case when I saw him interviewed. In his mind, oil & gas just keep coming out. Reservoirs automatically fill up all the time, see? Utter dimwit. Go on - send me to prison.

https://oeuk.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/OEUK-Impact-of-UKCS-Fiscal-Policy-on-UK-Economic-Growth-Autumn-2024-Analysis.pdf.pdf

OEUK has been a lot more reserved than I would have been, had I been representing the UKCS O&G industry. It has been bent over a desk and violated ever since May 2022, first by the "desperate for votes" leftie Conservatives, whose principles (if they ever had any) were set aside for money to buy votes. They don't deserve ever to be elected again. Even now there is no apparent desire to reclaim the centre right ground Reform has occupied since it became vacant.

They're spineless cowards. Jenrick is probably the best of a poor bunch. How Patel (who threw Mike Lynch under a bus to keep her US masters sweet) can put herself forward is bewildering. Badenoch is a"good idea - she'll look good". Forget the other pygmies.

This is OEUK getting down to basics: "Given the volatility of policymaking, investors have negligible confidence that the sunset clause in the current EPL will be honoured by any future government or applied given the election cycle.......... given the nature of the EPL’s creation and extension, the reassurance of a return to a 40% headline rate provides industry with little confidence. The EPL was not intended to be a long-term tax and was introduced after a period of sustained high prices. These prices are now trading at a pre-Ukraineinvasion level and have fallen back to historic averages".

In a sentence: "the UK O&G industry thinks you're a bunch of liars". Fwiw, I agree.

What OEUK has not done is demonstrate that the rate of tax charged on the "extraordinary" profits does not fall below 100% until (in the case of oil) BC reaches about $150 - which my spreadsheets show to be the case. They missed a trick.

Will any of this stop Reeves from removing CAs in the 30 Oct Budget?

tbc

• A windfall tax is a one-off tax levied by governments against certain industries when economic conditions allow those industries to experience above-average supernormal profits (extract from Gov.uk – DESNZ)

Note: it is commonly accepted that the dishonest way in which Sunak and Hunt (or their dishonest agents) designed the “release mechanism” ensuring the UKCS upstream companies cannot escape the destructive EPL, even when it's clear there are no windfall profits being made

• https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/energy-profits-levy-energy-security-investment-mechanism-legislation/energy-profits-levy-energy-security-investment-mechanism

• “Great British Energy will be a publicly owned, clean-energy company. It will own, manage and operate clean power projects, such as wind farms, up and down the country. It will be headquartered in Scotland and paid for by a windfall tax on oil and gas giants”.

• “Great British Energy will invest clean power projects all across the United Kingdom, such as wind farms, which are the cheapest forms of electricity generation to build and operate.

• how about this for rank amateurism combined with illiteracy: “This will help make our country energy independent, kicking tyrants like Putin to the curb, tackling climate change and saving families money”.................. “kick Putin to the curb”?? FFS – this is Gov.UK – from the PM’s Office: 25 July 2024

• https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/july-statement-2024-changes-to-the-energy-oil-and-gas-profits-levy/changes-to-the-energy-oil-and-gas-profits-levy

• Today (30 July 2024) the government is announcing that the rate of the Energy Profits Levy will increase to 38% from 1 November 2024, bringing the headline rate of tax on upstream oil and gas activities to 78%.

• The government will also remove unjustifiably generous investment allowances from the Energy Profits Levy, including by abolishing the levy’s main 29% investment allowance for qualifying expenditure incurred on or after 1 November 2024.

• The government will also reduce the extent to which capital allowance claims (including First Year Allowances) can be taken into account in calculating levy profits.

This latest one is straight out of the Ministry of Truth:

“With its number one mission of growth and wealth creation, ministers’ sleeves are rolled up ready to support investment and projects that can deliver jobs, growth, and energy security, and drives towards the UK’s clean energy future”.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/certainty-for-oil-and-gas-industry-in-light-of-landmark-ruling

……… You just couldn’t make it up.

I’ll put forward a few more focused thoughts later. It’s worth reading the linked info to try to form some views about intent. Where various Labour people stand is unclear. They are the most dishonest (and incompetent) bunch of politicians I have ever come across. I thought Sunak and Hunt we

..........not sure why the 3rd sentence got cut:

"Why on earth would a public body that considers such matters come to a logical conclusion on anything? lmao"