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WHAT WERE YOU DOING?

I was reading the Nolan Principles

WHAT WENT WRONG?

I was drinking a coffee at the time and very nearly choked with laughter when I read them and then thought about Starmer and his crew - and all the socialists in senior positions in the Civil Service (the Conservatives were no different, mind - I just hadn't read about Nolan before). You could have warned me. My wife had to wash the tee-shirt I was wearing

"In Dick's essay he likened me to a chimpanzee"................that's not entirely correct, MT. Once again you show an inability to process facts and respond intelligently. Just to help you understand a bit better, most people are born with functioning cerebrum. It's another word for a brain. I like "cerebrum" because one can see there are 5 different parts of a functioning one, which in most people work in harmony to enable them to form opinions and reach conclusions that rational. A "brain" (on its own) is a bit too general for me, but then again I've always been a bit of a perfectionist, so maybe I'm being too fussy.

A recent example in support of my "theory" involving wiring difficulties in some people's (5-part) cerebrum involved an individual who believed (apparently quite genuinely) that he could predict a company's future share price with great accuracy because of what he believed to be "gaps" in whatever exists in the market that leads to the formation of such gaps. It would not surprise me at all to learn that the gaps referred to were caused by manmade climate change which, as long as the change has led to higher temperatures, anyone following fact and logic would know has been extremely beneficial for humanity because humans are warm-blooded creatures - we did after all evolve in the equatorial African jungles. Man (and woman) only migrated beyond these - eventually to locations as far as the Arctic Circle - when they learned how to create heat (fire), construct shelter and wear protective clothing - the skin of fur-covered animals perhaps? I'm not sure there were designer labels in those days but I wouldn't rule it out, particularly where the female of the species and some slightly strange males were concerned. I'm certain, however, that none our male ancestors pretended to be female. Who knows what this could have led to? And as for females deciding they were b.isexual/q.ueer/p.ansexual nontheist quakers who might have led the H.omo Sapiens equivalent of the Green Party, I suspect it was very much a case of "who does what, with what and to whom"? 'Nuff said, eh?

Anyway, I asked a clever chap I know what he understood by: "this will gap down to 65 if closes below 90'... then gapping down to 67 after close below 90". He said: "ignoring the fact the sentence doesn't make grammatical sense, I'd be referring whoever wrote it to the Chartered Institute of Soothsayers - he's clearly got potential"

You've pitched up on this blog, where you know s/hs will be in anguish at the value they've lost as a direct result of the deceit/ dishonesty of shameless MPs to whom lying is a pre-requisite for personal advancement. The reason for your interest? So you can make a bit by increasing their anguish, perhaps causing them to panic sell, driving the SP down further. You get to pick up shares on the cheap before selling when/if the situation unwinds.

What a despicable way to spend life. I pity you

"seems like a david and goliath type stand off if volume of posts was to replace physical stature"...........

..........if it was a mental type of stand off, it would be more like einstein vs a chimpanzee :-)

i haven't ramped any share since i first started posting on blogs in 2007. the views and opinions i give are mine alone and i make this clear by ending each post with "imo/dyor/siuya(rse)" or similar. i am a long term investor and try only to promote a better understanding of the circumstances applying in cos i'm interest ed in and hopefully encourage intelligent discussion. value is my main interest. short term sp price is secondary, although i prefer the price of shares i've invested in to be higher than i paid to enter. i reduce my holdings in companies if imo value can't be supported by the fundamentals. successful risk assessment is critical. i didn't factor in sunak, hunt and now labour. jog is now binary but i'll see it out.

i like oil & gas (esp small caps) because if research is properly done and luck is average (jog hasn't had much so far, although this might change) the rewards can be substantial. how many shares in jog did you buy at 8.79p, mt? and 10p, 15p, 20p, 24p and so on? i've done ok on jog, although this is little consolation presently.

no-one (except you) can predict the future. external events have badly damaged sentiment in o&g. some have turned out to be political and others are the result of about 95% of the world's population being brainwashed into believing the human race will cease unless we instantly abandon the products jog and others deal in - when they have actually brought enormous prosperity to every nation that's been fortunate enough to have access to them. now, the aim (exactly whose aim has yet to be established) seems to be to deny third world countries (particularly those in africa) the same affordable energy that made the west rich. it isn't anymore - look east if you want to see who's still using fossil energy with *** abandon, as well as nuclear. is it stopping? it's pointless discussing it here with a two bit day trader who thinks he can talk a share price down with his mystic meg predictions so he can make a quick buck.

here's a question. there is only one poss answer. how much is a share worth? any share, any company. it goes right to the heart of investing.

i've watched many scientific and other presentations about climate change. no-one is denying the climate's changing - it's been changing forever. it's the effect on humanity that's up for debate. by 2100, nuclear will be the main source of energy anyway. it's clear to china, the us and others, but not uk gov. there's no money for investment - only to dish out to failures and immigrants and waste on energy infrastructure to align us with other 3rd world nations.

this is 4 years old. nothing's changed: the volume of the group speak has just increased: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rzlicdawhra

........all wholly relevant but ignored by Reeves et al, ancientmarine . I'd call it deliberate intent to mislead - 'dishonest' is another word for it. I suppose it's possible the comparison ("we'll increase the rate of tax to 78% because that's what they charge in Norway") is born out of ignorance, but the fact that under the EPL rules no (tax) allowances are given for interest or decommissioning costs and relief is only given at 40% on b/fwd tax losses makes the 78% comparison makes ignorance less likely than dishonesty. Let's call it dishonesty then.

Just as the imposition of the 35% so-called windfall tax introduced by Sunak and Hunt was dishonest, as it meant that a UKCS company's "normal" profits were also taxed at 75% - and to all intents and purposes for 7 years to boot, regardless of oil and gas prices, because the 20 year average floor prices (oil & gas) required for the EPL to fall away failed to take into account a) the exceptionally low oil & gas prices that were a feature of 2 or 3 years of Covid; b) before that the spat between OPEC and US frackers that caused BC & WTI to fall off a cliff for 2 years and c) inflation and $/£ exchange rates over the whole 20 year period. The conditions needed for the EPL can never be achieved despite oil and gas prices having been back to normal or below for more than a year.

Then there's the other difference between Norway and the UKCS oil & gas regime. Extraction costs in Norway are about half those in the UKCS - my understanding is that fields on the NCS are generally bigger than those on the UKCS, allowing for more effiient recovery. They are also generally less mature. In summary, there is a lot less profit to tax in UKCS companies - but our politicians are so intent on virtue signalling and cash grab that the fact their actions are crippling the UKNS comes a very distant second to anything and everything else.

Labour imv is entirely unfit for government - not a single front bencher having any experience at a senior level before entry into politics (of idealism and woke in the UK's present case). The Conservatives were no better. Does anyone else feel as if they've been disenfranchised? 5 seats for more than 4 million votes, when the Lib Dems get 72 seats for a lot fewer?

dyor

The single thing SQZ's directors need to do - above everything else by a country mile - is to dilute the destructive effects of UK Gov't actions that can only have one result, which is the permanent cessation of fossil fuel recovery from the UK North Sea. The only way to do it is to stop all future in the UKCS. Period. No exceptions. Forget Buchan. Write it off. The colour of Gov't doesn't matter - just get the hell out of the control of the disingenous, deceitful, desperate for money wherever it comes from, so that it can be dished out to those who continue to play a big role Britain's failure as a nation - and will continue to be until reality dawns (which might be when the IMF is forced to intervene because the facade can no longer be maintained). Can any country that champions and rewards failure ever hope to succeed in the longer term, one has to ask?

The money to keep the masses supporting (and eventually voting for the re-election of the most generous of the Parties at dishing out the money (that will have to be raised in wealth taxes levied on "those with the broadest shoulders") to those who always shout the loudest about the appalling benefits they have to live on - ie people like LTHs in companies like SQZ, upon which everyone will continue to rely to keep producing the cheap energy the masses demand - and Labour will ensure they get. Labour doesn't see why cos like SQZ should be allowed to make any profit - it doesn't fit the model. It's their obligation, see?The fact that any windfall gains were only fleeting doesn't come into it (about 8 months for oil and 18 months for gas) it will remain forgotten, despite prices long since back to normal because there were no shortages. Russia found willing buyers at slightly lower prices in China and India, the latter refining the cheap oil before supplying it to various EU contries that could claim they hadn't breached the sanctions. Nice one - all the right boxes ticked and the world continues.

Except that UKCS focused oil & gas cos have been saddled in advance with crippling tax rates for at least 7 years (2022 to 2029) as a result of this fiasco. Not that it ever enters anyone's head because it would involve "honesty and integrity" and UK politicians don't do those inconvenient principles - they do money, popularity, idealism and votes, not what's honest and fair.

As an aside, is it not also funny how, when setting the impossible to achieve "escape price" that would consign EPL to the scrap heap where it belongs, when choosing the average prices of both oil & gas for the previous 20 years to use as the benchmark price, no account was taken when setting the floor price, for i) the 2014-2016 oil price crash orchestrated by OPEC; ii) the 2 or 3 years of the Covid price crash when demand fell off a cliff; iii) inflation throughout the 20 period. The fears about oil & gas shortages never materialised.

Do a HBR. Buy foreign and buy big

dyor

NEWK

ENQ had net debt (inc provisions) of more than £2.5bn at 31 Dec 2023. It lost $31m in the 12 months then ended. It's on page 139. https://www.enquest.com/fileadmin/content/Annual_Reports/Annual_Report_2023/43590_EnQuest_AR23_WEB.pdf

Kraken, Bressay and Bentley are all "heavy". Where political correctness is concerned, ENQ appears to go above and beyond. Not a complelling target by my reckoning, but wdik?

I mentioned Al Gore and his role in kicking off all the "we're all gonna boil inside 25 years if we don't stop producing fossil fuels and take the renewables route - and it's a lot cheaper too" - nonsense. Errr.....no it isn't and you know it. It's reasonably clear the whole of the developed world will have gone nuclear inside 50 years. China (as usual) is leading the field: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61927#:~:text=In%20the%20past%2010%20years,are%20under%20construction%20in%20China.

Britain won't quaify as "developed" quite soon, after sacrificing what was left of its economy on the altar of "wokism extraordinaire" - virtue-signaling of unbridled proportions. As Sir K Stoma has stated: "Britain must set the example". Such vanity - as if China, India and the US gives a toss what GB thinks or does about anything. It doesn't matter what GB does anyway, as it only accounts for about 1% of global CO2 emissions. China, India, the US and others accountable for a vast % of global emissions will just keep on doing whatever is good for their economy, whereas GB's politicians will just keep on doing what isn't. Global CO2 emissions will increase as a result of GB going renewables only from now on, because our country was quite good at getting the oil & gas out with minimal carbon footprint (to coin a phrase). Now we'll just have to import a lot more because, strangely, some people in the UK won't put up with power cuts, or the denial to them of things they've come to expect "cheap" that they're too ignorant to realise rely on oil for their manufacture and supply (eg cheap flights to Costa del Shag'nvomit).

I'm not feeling very optimistic today - it was the Danish company buying 50mmboe of 11kboepd gas production for $3pb that did it. I'm sunk on all my holdings - just didn't see dishonesty on a such a grand scale coming from politicians. 7 years of crippling taxes at more than 75%, then more than 78% (after adding tax to all the disallowable expenditure) on supposed windfall gains that only lasted a few months in the case of oil and about 18 months for UK natural gas. The irony is the Goverment paid the bills of the real winners - the downstream industry. Centrica and all the retail energy companies. MPs stole most of that money from us (owners of UK upstream oilcos). Easy to justify thanks to people like Gore and too big a % of the UK being thick. And some people think the hysteria around MMGW doesn't matter to cos like SQZ? Give me strength.

I hope the relevant MPs' wives give them a ST

"Production today from the assets being acquired is almost 11,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, of which 99% is natural gas, which is expected this year to generate approximately €90 million free cash flow based on current strip prices. The acquisition will boost the Canadian player’s 2P (proven and probable) reserves by 53.6 million barrels of oil equivalent"........

..........begs the question why TF didn't SQZ do the deal instead of a Canadian player? $3 per barrel for producing assets with a full payback well inside 2 years (if a few of Shell/Exxon's overheads are immediately phased out). SQZ's executives must have had other things on their mind I guess.

$3pb pb for producing assets of this profile? Utter insantity caused by Governments meddling in a whole industry to lay their greedy, dishonest and incompetent hands on as much as they can on the back of the myth of the existential threat posed by fossil fuels (so-called "man-made global warming"). It will be little consolation to my successors when it is all exposed as made-up nonsense. Am I alone in suspecting there's a chance that not all of those wind turbines and solar panels planned by the Reds now in power to be attractively located on (millions of acres of) England's formerly green (and pleasant) land and off its shores - all at a cost that's so high as to make it instantly uneconomic, but for the subsidies - might not be fully up and running by 2030. All that will happen is that the clear energy shortages will be made up with traditional energy (ie gas and oil) imported form abroad at much higer cost. Inflation will take off, as the shortages take effect. No-one in Government or the Public Sector will shoulder any of the blame.

Al Gore was given the Nobel Peace Prize: "for his efforts to build up and disseminate greater knowledge about man-made climate change, and to lay the foundations for the measures that are needed to counteract such change." He should have been imprisoned for life, although I'd have gone a stage further.

JMO - dyor

JS: "The Western Isles is an expensive FPSO vessel and would make no economic sense for it to be sitting idle , just waiting for Buchan .".............

........the other thing that makes no sense (economic or otherwise) is recent posts about the WI FPSO vessel. What alternative uses are certain people suggesting it should be put to. Maybe an offshore venue for pop concerts - or maybe a floating conference centre?

Nov 2023

"The FPSO was said to be “suitable for reuse” if it could find work elsewhere.

A statement from Dana Petroleum and NEO indicated that it “intends to redeploy the FPSO at the Buchan field redevelopment.”

FEED work for the project began earlier this year.

NEO, as the field operator, plans for a “relatively modest” work programme to be undertaken in order to prepare the FPSO for redeployment on Buchan, according to joint project partner JOG.

Designed by Sevan SSP, the Western Isles FPSO was constructed by COSCO Shipyard in China with production brought online in 2017.

Featuring a 70m hull and storage capacity for up to 400,000 barrels of oil, it produced from the Harris and Barra fields in the around 100 miles east of Shetland in the northern North Sea.

Dana Petroleum added: “The transaction remains subject to the satisfaction of certain conditions including final investment decision and regulatory approval of the Buchan redevelopment.”

Chief executive of Jersey Oil & Gas, Andrew Benitz commented: “Finalising the terms for the joint venture partners to acquire the FPSO, which is less than eight years old and requires relatively modest adaptation for our planned GBA

[Greater Buchan Area] redevelopment, is a tremendous milestone for the project.

“Re-using existing high-quality infrastructure and modifying it to be electrification-ready is exactly in line with our stated low carbon strategy and the net zero related objectives of the industry.

“The vessel is the cornerstone to completing the engineering work required to facilitate FDP [Field Development Plan] approval for the Buchan redevelopment next year.”

The key statement to me last Nov was: “The transaction remains subject to the satisfaction of certain conditions including final investment decision and regulatory approval of the Buchan redevelopment.”..............

.........as with everything else about NEO/SQZ/JOG and the Buchan project, the whole thing is contingent on: i) satisfactory completion of FEED work; ii) NTSA approval of the FDP (which includes the EIA) and iii) FID by the JV partners

Maybe the location the FPSO vessel is being towed to is less costly pending i) clarification from Labour that they aren't going to close down the NS completely by removing all incentives for companies to invest (in this case reinvestment relief is probably the single most attractive aspect of the proposed development to NEO & SQZ.

I doubt modifications to the FPSO vessel will be made until FID. As ever, we just have to wait.

Yes - stop it, Mommur. And you too NEWK. I stopped when I was told to by Einstein's brother and I'm a less unpleasant person for it.

The linked movie (at the end) is the last one I intend to post on the subject of why our wealth has been decimated and we can no longer live our lives in the way we would ideally choose - and it will get worse. There are facts to consider in the early part, but it warms up (a bit like the planet) as it progresses. It's the best of the many presentations etc I've viewed on the subject. Part of Megla's puzzlement is explained in the movie. Fwiw, my take on Miliband is that he's a danger to anyone who values freedom and democracy. Our new political masters definitely know what's best for us all, but Miliband goes above and beyond.

It's astonishing that so many people in countries like the UK automatically accept information that's put to them as "the truth" if it's fashionable and "virtuous" (which is the case here). What's sweeping the West hasn't happened overnight, although the pace is quickening. The media has a vital role to play in ensuring the sheople only read and hear what they need to. In the UK the movement is led(as always ) by the BBC (British Brainwashing Corporation), now an abomination of an organisation incorporated by Royal Charter in 1922: "to act in the public interest, serving all audiences through the provision of impartial, high-quality and distinctive output and services which inform, educate and entertain; providing impartial news and information to help people understand and engage with the world around them". You couldn't make it up.

A bit odd then that it will never entertain anyone who takes an opposing view on subjects most normal people would think were at least worthy of debate. OK, I confess, I'm not normal. But (o/t) in an effort to become so in the new world of woke, I'm presently campaigning for the official recognition of - and demanding full respect for - a new gender of males (to use the term loosely) called: "Beirut below the belt-ers" - try Gleason 9 (4+5) Prostate Ca for 4 years and you'll get what I mean. So far, my best achievement has been securing a disability badge (3 years for a tenner) from the local authority, which wasn't interested in medical certification - I had to demonstrate my lack of mobility to a very strange looking creature (female I think) with rainbow-coloured hair patches. Anyway, I won her over by failing to be able to walk the 100m she followed me for at a distance of 5m.

I probably won't be around to see how it all pans out, but I fear for my children and theirs if they decide to remain in this god-forsaken socialist country we at one time could call home.

Here's the link. Make the effort - it's worth it. Youtube - search "climate change" and see all the genuine scientists who've been "cancelled"

https://rumble.com/v4kl0dn-climate-the-movie-the-cold-truth-martin-durkin.html

dyor

Thanks for your response, sasa.

Ref: "this Serica forum is best confined to SQZ"..........I fully agree. Trouble is, what the linked interviews are about is the single biggest reason Serica's share price has fallen by 2/3rds in 2 years.

The UK Govt's response to what I have spent a great deal of time researching (M-MGW) is beyond belief. I have significant (to me - and probably to most people) investments in 3 UKCS-focused O&G cos. I took the view I must give myself the best chance of avoiding catastrophe - hence the research. The problem stemmed from me failing to have taken into account the political risks, particularly the dishonest way in which what was only a short period of higher oil and gas prices resulted in all UKCS-focused O&G companies' profits being taxed at 75% (not just the windfall ones). Plus some fairly basic costs had to be added back to taxable profits (eg interest, decommissioning costs). Eff rate even higher. They're soon to go even higher. Plus b'fwd tax losses can only be relieved at 40%. What really gets me is that it wasn't UK upstream oilcos that made the WF profits.

Yet with O&G prices long since back to "normal", the unjust tax rates will apply until at least 2030.

The price floors set for escape to be possible have been so fiddled as to make it virtually impossible for anything less than the 75% (soon 78%) to be charged through to 2030. "Historical" oil and gas prices were calculated using the 20 years to 2022. But no adjustment was made for the c.3 years when prices fell off a cliff after OPEC opened up the taps to put US frackers in their place (BC was low for ages - fell as far as $25pb). Nor was there any adjustment for Covid when, again, BC fell to the low $20s. Nor was any adjustment made for inflation over the whole 20 year period. So don't ask me to comment on the honesty and integrity of politicians. I wrote to Hunt and Rees-Mogg (thinking the latter might be the person of integrity I believed him to be). I didn't get a response from either. Not that anyone will care, but I've voted Conservative all my adult life. Never again - and I mean it. No wonder the incompetent, cowardly, sc*mbags got wiped out. Had they not all been so busy stabbing each other in the back in their efforts to be king dog and thought a bit more about what British people wanted, they might have had a better result.

Sea levels are rising (says The Royal Society) as a result of man-made global warming (of course) at the rate of 3.6mm per annum. OMG - HELP!! That's 14 inches by 2124 - only a hundred years from now.

If the whole developed world hasn't gone nuclear by then (except for things like jets, which will be able to use crushed bananas as fuel) politicians will have been even more incompetent than the ones we have now.

Problem solved. Back to normal for now, then go nuclear and your great, great grandkids should be ok.

Ignore me - Biden talks more sense........

That's an intelligent approach, Notsofastyou - have you considered changing your pen name to "Notsobrightme"?

Let's summarise. You dismiss as drivel something you won't listen to because the title of the podcast is a play on the words "Looney" and "University"? So ignoring the views of proven academics who seem to me to address something that's lacking - which is a balanced and entirely scientific approach to a subject that is fundamentally affecting everything about the way we're allowed to live our lives, inc what we're allowed to buy and use that make our lives better - or maintain the living standards we have come to regard as "normal".

Of more relevance to those who are LTHs of shares in UK-focused oil & gas companies like SQZ, who don't buy into the engineered hysteria about the effects of global warming (fossil fuel induced in particular), this particular set of emperor's clothes has crashed the value of assets we carefully and patiently accumulated, after spending whatever time was necessary to understand the circumstances impacting the companies we have invested in and the risks they face. Who could have factored in the risk a UK Government would decide to sacrifice our nation's economic future so that it can claim "Britain is setting the example", when whatever the UK does to reduce CO2 emission won't make an iota of difference to anything because the UK is only responsible for 1% of global CO2 emissions and 3 countries alone that account for over 60% of total global output won't abandon what is the current most abundant, effective and affordable energy, in favour of far less efficient and much more expensive "renewable" energy forms that wreck the massive areas needed for them to

People aren't allowed to question conclusions reached by those with vested interests based on"scientific consensus" (whatever this means), without being labelled "climate change deniers" with follow-on attempts to belittle and humiliate.

Present global warming as an "existential threat" and this does away with the need to present cost/benefit analyses of increased CO2 levels (for instance). Give Gore the Nobel Prize for foresight instead.

You'll by now have dismissed as drivel everything I have put forward for discussion. If I was you (which I'm glad I'm not, because you must go through life in a haze) I'd stick to your specialism of looking at SPs and somehow deciding how much they will go up or down, based on your expert hunches.

Messrs Dunning and Kruger wrote a study in 1999 about people like you. You won't understand it, but the basic idea is that it takes competence to judge competence. I prefer: "some people are too dim to be able to understand how dim they are".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect

SQZ will do alright regardless of Buchan, (so-called) WFT and the efforts of Starmer, Miliband and others to kill it. My crystal ball told me.

GL

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