Member Info for dickupham

Market cap just over 2 years FCF. Dividend yield c.18%.

Is it such a bad thing that production volumes are below forecast, when the only reason the tax rate isn't consuming virtually SQZ's entire profit before tax is the availability of Tailwind's b'fwd tax losses (at 40%). The oil & gas aren't going anywhere. There's a case to be made for reducing the dividend by reducing production until the most dishonest and punitive of taxes it's possible to imagine (EPL) is withdrawn in 2030 or possibly earlier if UKCS-focused O&G companies continue to quit the UK at the present rate.

Maybe the consequences of the draconian fines imposed on EV manufacturers for non-compliance with idiotic rules imposed on them, as evidenced by Vauxhall's news they're closing their Luton facility, will finally knock some sense into the Labour cretin's heads. As Miliband's lunacy and ridiculous assumptions steadily become more obvious, the mood will change.

In the meantime, SQZ looks a solid bet based on the latest update. It's over-done.

dyor

"Good great"??

I meant it's worth a good (or great) deal more than £21m.

Put it down to age.

"Has this changed your ‘somethings in the air’ emotion Dick?"...........

........not really, Surety. My 'emotion' was largely based on the fact JOG's entire board has remained in situ (albeit on 50% of what they were being paid before). The individual board members all have different skills and experience, which caused me to wonder if there's a reason for their retention "en bloc" (eg access to the skills and experience needed to complete an acquisition outside the UK). There's otherwise little obvious need for JOG to keep anyone other than a skeleton team in place, given JOG only has one asset (the GBA licences) and NEO is operator.

JOG would have more value to NEO than to SQZ, for reasons I don't need to explain.

I am not making predictions about what will happen - just speculating about possibilities. The only thing we know (as far as I can tell) is that things will be clearer by the end of H2 2025. JOG has comfortably enough to see it through to the end of the current period of uncertainty. It will throughout the period own a fully-carried 20% of the GBAs licences, plus tax losses currently worth £28m (cash value) to a profitable entity, plus whatever it has in the bank and is owed. The sum total of these seems to me to be a good great more than the £21m the market is saying JOG is worth.

Is it not how one is supposed to make money in the stock market? Select companies the market is valuing incorrectly, buy shares in such companies, wait until value comes through, then sell at a profit? It was how I ended up with a sizable (to me) holding in SQZ bought at an average of 22p per share in 2016. I might have invested a few months earlier, when the shares were less than 4p giving the Co a market cap of £7m; but I didn't. C'est la vie. I sold 80% of my SQZ holding 2 or 3 years ago at prices between about 230p and 450p - fewer at 450p than at lower prices sadly, but I count it as a win regardless, particularly looking at where the price is today. To me SQZ is again a compelling "buy" at present, with a dividend yield today of around 17.5%. I began adding again recently. Only in small volumes, because I am working towards a compete exit from the markets when my present holdings play out.

dyor

The following was also stated in today's SQZ update:

"As previously announced by Neo, the operator of the Buchan Horst field (SQZ: 30%), activities on this project were slowed pending clarity regarding the long term fiscal regime and guidance for environmental statements ('ESs'). Together with the Autumn Budget, the government announced consultations on the post EPL tax regime after and on the ESs. The timetable for the former has not been announced and the latter is due to close in January 2025"

My NPV calcs using DCF projections shows the project is just about worthwhile with the tax rate back to 40% post 30 June 2030. My understanding is that clarity should be provided on tax rates moving forward ("to avoid surprises" - this should work both ways, but won't) in mid 2025.

dyor

Contd...........

But I for one failed to take into account the risk of dishonest politicians deciding to wreck an entire industry by taxing it to oblivion. This could never have reasonably been foreseen by anyone before making the decision to invest.

My personal view is that the oil in Buchan is too valuable and too “green” to leave in situ. Sense will eventually prevail. Until it does, the SP doesn’t really matter, because JOG has enough cash to get by in the meantime. I added more yesterday at 60.9p. The lowest price I bought at was 8.79p (Feb 2016). Should I apply to be an anal-yst?

dyor

Ali bro – thanks for educating us all about oil and how quickly it will become redundant. I guess we'll all have to learn to live without plastics, aviation fuel and about 5,998 other products reliant on oil for their existence because I doubt wind and solar will cut the mustard in this regard. Thanks also for your “theory of investing” lecture. If I read this correctly, investing is about finding a really good share tipster (who will probably call himself an “investment analyst” – maybe a friend will have recommended this anal yst to you). You then follow his tips wait for the shares (now in a special portfolio) to increase in value at a compound annual rate of about 40%. Ali – I can see you quickly becoming Britain’s equivalent of Elon Musk, particularly given your expertise in EVs. Many congratulations – I reckon you’ve got it sussed.

You talk of Canute. The latest Canute Conference (COP29) was interesting – if only because of the number of countries that declined to attend. These are probably countries that recognise that voluntary destruction of their economies isn't in the best interests of the bulk of their citizens. Could you tell us some more about the world you envisage (in which there's no place for JOG)? That other well-known economist, Rachel Reeves, might well benefit from a couple of hours spent with you. You could explain things properly to her.

The Australian chap who’s linked below seems to have his finger on the button when it comes to the brainwashing exercise that's led to a worldwide outbreak of utter stupidity.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KPJV4fPZ_oc

One of the other fringe lunatics who has expressed views on the subject is Prof William Happer. He's worth listening too as well. As Is Judith Curry, Steven Koonin, Patrick Moore and the ultimate lunatic (who was awarded the Nobel Prize in Physics - sorry – lunacy – who’s called John Clauser) - there are many others. All have had their reputations besmirched and been subjected to "cancellation" for their contrary scientific views on a subject that is apparently beyond debate.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KPJV4fPZ_oc

As you have made clear, your investment decisions are based on the views of others. That is your prerogative. I and many other LTHs choose to do our own research and invest in companies based on our own assumption of the fundamentals – which leads us to form opinions on the value of shares based on their expected ultimate investment yield. Any assessment of value relies on the assumptions made being realistic and risk assessment properly carried out. JOG has done nothing wrong, nor have any of its long-term investors. To have progressed from nowhere (JOG had to raise £800k to get started after reversing into Trap Oil in 2015) to owning a fully carried 20% in the 3rd biggest (and by far the greenest) field in the UKCS in 9 years - poised for success when the politicians struck - is truly remarkable.

TBC

........"taxis to airports and cruise terminals".............

.......taxis to France could be expensive, MPO818. Britain won't have any airports when Miliband gets his way........

:-)

Good morning Mommur.

It's probably the kiss of death, but I recently sold my holding in HBR (I didn't have enough shares to get excited about anything in what is clearly a skilfully-led company with great plans for the future). I put the money into SQZ - the dividend yield of 18%+ was too tempting to ignore. I understand the risk of it not being maintained, but the circumstances that would apply if it happened could only realistically result in a significant SP increase. That's how I see things anyway. It won't be the first time if I'm wrong.

A further concern I have/had about HBR is that the price is played by forces in the background. And many posters on the blog react mainly to everyday movements in oil and gas prices. I tend towards the longer term. I've had 3 or 4 bites at HBR since it reversed into Premier and haven't done that well.

I also intend to reinvest tomorrow's (and future) dividend/s

Oh ye of little faith.............................

:-)

Https://www.jerseyoilandgas.com/about-us/history-growth/

................"With the redevelopment plan in the process of being prepared for our core asset, the Buchan oil field, which lies at the heart of the Greater Buchan Area, we are poised to unlock many multiples of this value for our shareholders".

All that remains is for them to turn the key. They might need one or two things to happen first.

Have a look at the ruling made in The Hague in a case brought by Greenpeace and others against Shell ("RDS"). Seems to me to set something of a precedent, but wdik? The judges seem to be saying (in regard to scope 3 emissions) that if RDS doesn't produce the oil, someone else will instead.

https://climatecasechart.com/non-us-case/milieudefensie-et-al-v-royal-dutch-shell-plc/

"In relation to the Scope 3 emissions, the Appeals Court seems to be more open to the argument that limitations on the sales of certain products may lead to other companies substituting for the Scope 3 emissions curbed by Shell".

dyor

NoTimeTL - it was a cheap jibe. Investors are supposed to capitulate - we all have different levels of capitulation. Yours came earlier than some. I will go down with the ship if that's the way it plays out. I'd feel worse selling (say) half, then seeing the price increase by a factor of 10, after being in since the outset.

Not being critical of your views, but I don't see a change of heart by the Govt as being the only (or even main) issue in regard to a price level of up to (say) 350-400p. The question I ask myself is how the directors have been spending their time of late? The whole board has been retained (plus probably Smith, the ex-Ithaca commercial manager). For what purpose, when there isn't much work to be done on the Buchan licences now that NEO is operator. What have they been up to?

Enhancement of shareholder value has to be the name of the game. It isn't out of the question that JOG has been eyeing up M&A opportunities (either on its own or as part of a JV) outside the UK, perhaps using its 20% of the Buchan Licences as collateral of some kind. Or maybe they've been discussing with the current JV partners how much JOG would be worth to them in a straight sale. Many things are possible. It is always better to be active than passive

I have a feeling (I might be entirely wrong) something might be in the air. Hence the link in my post................

Ever the optimist..........

dyor

"What am I - man or mouse?"...............

........"Squeak, squeak"

In the words of the Sage:

"Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.”

"Price is what you pay: value is what you get".................

Suggestion: put your money in a building society.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T59hsln7nlc

Are there any angles from the pumps, Einbert?

Where's Guy Fawkes when you need him, eh? He'd just need to be a bit better organised this time around for a result we'd all benefit from in spades...............

Https://www.politico.eu/article/trump-turns-up-heat-on-uk-climate-leadership-bid/

“I’m not making any commitment for the U.K. at this COP at all on that front,” Starmer said, adding that it was now “high time” for the private sector “to start paying their fair share”..............

............one wonders who he regards as "the private sector" and what he regards as their "fair share", given UKCS-focused upstream operators can't make any worthwhile post tax profits on their UK ops.

We're starting to see exactly how dangerous these ill-informed clowns are. The next 6 months are critical for everyone invested in this industry in the NS. No-one can be trusted either to understand the real issues and their potential effects, let alone have an adult debate on the consequences of this undeniable zealotry.

Our best outcome might be for NEO and SQZ to conclude that Labour will be kicked out in 2029 and decide to wait until then to take matters forward. The industry can only hope a pragmatic approach is taken by whichever Party replaces these cluelss zealots (hopefully Reform - perhaps by then an amalgam of Reform with about 50 "non-woke" Conservatives who have the balls to walk across and join them).

Eyes focused now in Equinor and Shell and the Supreme Court. I doubt they expect to win but it should provide more clarity about what can and can't get EIA and thereafter FDP approval. I can see a case for the NSTA getting sued for leading people down paths costing billions.

I wonder what Britain will be held to owe "poorer nations" for making so much out fossil energy creating so much harmful CO2. Strikes me CO2 has been pretty good for the planet - unless you believe all the guff about "we've never had so many forest fires (caused by what exactly?), deaths from extreme weather events (reduction in numbers thereof) and extreme temperatures (not around these parts)".

Not everyone preaches only one message (so as to guarantee papers that are published and "research" grants awarded:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D_B10L9bV18

dyor

.........not sure if people saw this - HBR is UKNS's biggest producer.

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/562521/harbour-energy-international-assets-to-outweigh-rundown-of-uk-portfolio-north-sea-linda-cook-oil-gas/

.........."uncertainty remains over to what extent Harbour’s future lies in the UK. The company ‘s reported sale of its North Sea assets was described by the SNP as a “stark warning” to the Labour government.

The company is also reportedly reviving plans to transfer its stock listing from London to New York, amid continued rumours that supermajors BP and Shell are looking to do the same.....

....A Harbour spokesperson said: “We are a London listed company and as long as our geographical centre of gravity is in Europe it wouldn’t really make sense to move the listing.”

"With opportunities in Indonesia, Argentina and Mexico on the horizon, Harbour’s centre of gravity could soon see a shift".

Yet still these fundamentally dishonest politicians, driven by dogma and false virtue , when ignorance is their only obvious trait, continue to ignore the facts. Britain will hit the rocks unless these clowns come to their senses. The industry must not imv enter into discussions with Reeves & co about what will replace the EPL from 2030. To do so would be tacit acceptance of the dishonest imposition of 7 years of punitive and totally unjustifiable taxes said to be on the "extraordinary" profits being made by UK upstream operators, when every man and his dog knows this is utter rubbish. The upstream industry only made "extraordinary" profits (as a result of Ukrine-driven higher oil and gas prices) for about 9mths (oil) and 16mths (gas). When prices were heading back to normal, Hunt (retrospectively and dishonestly) concocted a formula that supposedly enabled "normal" prices to be calculated, but which anyone half-intelligent saw for what it was - a way to keep taxing upstream O&G companies at more than 75% for as long as he and whoever followed him chose to extend the period of charge. This has presently reached 30 June 2030, which will bankrupt some producers and drive others away. Unsurprisingly, many have already left. There are plenty of other examples of the deceit, dishonesty, ignorance and moral bankruptcy of people who are supposed to be leaders of our nation. In what? Dishonesty and incompetence?

It is difficult to imagine Buchan won't get developed - it's more a question of when it will happen and if JOG is still around when it does. Makes sense to me for either or both of NEO and SQZ to buy JOG, so increasing their joint interest in 35kboepd Buchan by 20%. Labour's green plans are impossible to achieve and could lead to Miliband's exit. Cash is always king and the absence of it to throw at Labour's target recipients will soon concentrate minds, particularly when it's clear no-one else (esp the US, China and India) is similarly committing energy suicide.

450p-500p a share would get my vote

dyor

Https://apacorp.com/4-million-boost-for-scottish-charities-from-apaches-offshore-teams/

............and all these people will lose their jobs - directly as a result of the lies and deceit of Consevative politicians (Sunak & Hunt) then Labour via arch-liars Reeves and Starmer and the insane Miliband. Small but highly valued parts of Aberdeen's existence and culture also die on the "altar of virtue". Labour doesn't mind us all dying on it too.

Thank you for your courtesy, CHF - you're welcome. I await an explanation of the situation from JOG

Getting back to FJ's informative post re Apache, it would not surprise me if, following an extended period of negative FCF as a result of paying tax of more than 78% on profits from late life fields no-one wants to buy, one or more UKCS operators were forced into liquidation, which would leave the NSTA (ie the Govt) with the full cash liability for decommissioning costs. Bring it on, I say. Hang on a minute - clever Rachel would just increase the tax rate - say to 110%.

Silly me. Laffer was silly too.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/laffercurve.asp

dyor

Daniel Slater (Zeus) stated the following in the research note issued after last week's Budget. He also repeated it in the audio note:

" JOG is also funded for its share of ongoing FEED costs, and cash milestone payments under the farm out have left the company with £13.0m cash as of the end of June 2024, with a further US$20.0m to come in on Buchan FID".

According to the RNSs reporting the farm-in of both NEO and Serica Energy, he $20m still to come in will become payable on approval of the FDP - not "on Buchan FID".

I sought clarification on this from Zeus and was told FDP approval and FID are more or less the same thing. Beats me, because I have always thought EIA & FDP approval are about regulatory compliance, whereas FID (which inevitably follows FDP approval) is about commercial issues. Evidently not - I am now told FDP approval isn't given until FID is made.

Let's make it up as we go along shall we? We could use both the Conservative and Labour Governments' approach to the situation as guidance.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/JOG/greater-buchan-area-farm-out-qjyfvvw00hcp3di.html

"$12.5 million cash payment on approval of the Buchan FDP by the NSTA"

The above refers to the NEO farm-in (50% + 12.5% carry). Serica bought a 30% interest with a 7.5 % carry. SQZ has to pay JOG $7.5m on the same terms as NEO.

I intend to investigate this further with the Company as it's an important issue. I have always thought FDP approval is granted if a financial case can be made and the environmental impact assessment meets regulations. If that is correct, FDP approval could be gained by the middle of next year, giving JOG (in total) £28m cash in the bank, cash value of tax losses of £28m, plus whatever someone would pay for its oil assets (assuming NEO and SQZ decided not to proceed. Cash and tax losses alone would be worth £56m - or 172p per share.

dyor

Even funnier.......

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/11/05/millions-more-switch-off-ed-miliband-net-zero-targets/

........"Millions more households could be asked to regularly switch off light and appliances under Ed Miliband’s plan for a clean power grid by 2030, an official review has found".

"In practice, this means convincing larger numbers of households and businesses to voluntarily cut their electricity consumption during low-wind periods or times when the grid is otherwise constrained – either through higher prices or by paying them incentives.

Some 2.6m households and businesses took part in schemes that paid rewards for cutting power use last winter, according to Neso.

To reach Mr Miliband’s target, the amount of flexibility must rise from 2.5 gigawatts today to at least 10.4 gigawatts – implying that millions more will need to sign up................

The Energy Secretary has been told that the Government’s pledge to rely on wind and solar farms for most of Britain’s power needs is technically achievable but will entail a “Herculean effort” on every front.

Advice published by the National Energy System Operator (Neso) said a quadrupling of so-called flexibility is needed in order to ensure the grid can operate without the use of fossil fuels".

"Failure in any single area – generation, flexibility, networks – will lead to failure overall,” the report says.

Of course everyone will agree to these minor inconveniences because it will all be so much cheaper and so much better for the planet...............as anyone in their right mind knows is utter bullsh*t

There's more.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/11/05/if-net-zero-means-letting-britain-go-dark-labour-are-finish/

"Getting up in the middle of the night to run the washing machine will help. Downsizing to a slightly smaller TV might make a small difference. And of course switching off your mobile for a few hours every day may have to be mandatory, not just to avoid all the craziness on social media, but to keep the grid running.

The National Energy System Operator has this week warned the Energy Secretary Ed Miliband that it will take a “Herculean effort” by the whole country to make sure we can keep the power system running while ending the use of fossil fuels by 2030. But hold on. That is crazy. And if Miliband does mandate power cuts, as looks increasingly likely, it will surely bring down the government – and rightly so.

When the government set the target of making the UK’s electricity grid completely free of fossil fuels by 2030 we were told repeatedly that renewable energy would be cheaper, cleaner, create hundreds of thousands of “well-paid green jobs”, end dependency of foreign powers, and turbo-charge investment and growth. We would set an example to the world on climate change, while getting richer at the same time.

The trouble is, it is not working out quite as planned".

One can but hope...........

dyor

Courtesy of catchingmice on the other board:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/nov/04/renewable-energy-grid-wait-green-renewal-stellantis-warehouse-solar

Thank you for your further insights, Alibro. Most helpful to us all.

I won't take you on on the economics, or indeed the facts, as I wouldn't know where to start.

I've got plenty of things wrong in my life, Alibro and will no doubt continue to do so until my number's up. But I'm always learning. Predicting the result of a match that's still in progress after you've gone off injured doesn't strike me as being a particularly productive use of one's time but wdik? Oil & gas is an inherently risky sector. People who get sick with worry after buying shares in risky companies/sectors they don't understand because they like the thought of what might be substantial rewards, have only themselves to blame when things don't go according to plan.

Anyway, Alibro, I'm putting the filter into use now so as not to waste my and other people's time. I'm not sure I trust you to dispense useful advice or sincere commiserations. I am in no way influenced by (on one occasion in the past) entering into debate with a poster on another blog who similarly dispensed "after the event" advice about investments he'd held he'd made a fortune on. He signed off his final post with: "jmo; Amin Yashed". I can tell you I have five sheds on my property. I went outside and searched every one from top to bottom, but he wasn't there. Very disappointing.