Member Info for dickupham

This is the latest update I can presently find. It dates back to 24 July 2024.

https://www.offshore-energy.biz/fpso-staying-in-scotlands-orkney-islands-for-revamp-ahead-of-redeployment-to-uk-firms-flagship-north-sea-oil-project/

There doesn't appear to be any panic - just acceptance by the GBA development JV (esp NEO, the operator) of the fact the UK Govt doesn't know its ar5e from its elbow when it comes to determining an energy strategy that will avoid Britain plunging into savage economic decline as a result of the unachievable aspirations of the clown Miliband and his band of eco warriors: "let's commit economic suicide, shall we? It will make us feel good that all times we had the safety of mankind as our driving force - not like those nasty Chinese and inconsiderate Indians and Americans. We certainly showed them how it should be done".

Sense will prevail - even Rachel from accounts acknowledged the need for continuing investment in the North Sea when, having stated in July there would be a reduction in CAs investing companies can claim on capex incurred on new development, she failed to carry this threat through in her 30 October Budget. She had clearly been told it was a step too far and would be counter-productive. Zeus covers this in this morning's update.

I've separately posted an extract from the linked article above.

Tickets prices on the bus are in popular demand and the price is increasing daily. Buckfastleigh is in a state of high exciting ahead of anticipated events. The fabled tonic wine has been selling at a premium since Christmas.............

imo

dyor

...........usual conflict between short term holders ("sell on the news") aka day-traders scrambling around in the basement trying to make a a few quid and LTHs waiting for the fundamentals to come through. The NPV10 value must be a long way ahead of SQZ's present market cap - the losses acquired from PMG (£400m) further assure future fcf.

I'm in for the yield anyway and was adding at up to 130p. The shares should pay for themselves (with dividends reinvested) inside 5 years.

.......on what basis, Einstein?

Seems on first reading to have resolved as well as could have been expected. Shares are still yielding 15% and strong fcf is now more certain so, in theory at least, the shares should continue to re-rate.

That's probably put the kibosh on proceedings

yours aye

Jonah

...........ref the windmills bit, Megla, it's strange how the enormous ecological harm that's done by digging out millions of tonnes of whatever's found at the bottom of the North Sea (and wherever else these monstrosities are erected - every pylon has to be sunk in deep-set concrete) is completely ignored. The gunge that's dug out is left to disperse "naturally", in the process destroying vast amounts of plankton, which is the start of the marine food chain. The effects permeate through the chain, right up to the whale, destroying whole species in the process. And don't get me started on the countless innocent seabirds birds killed when they fly into the blades. That works on the onshore monstrosities as well. Yes - just ignore the landscape and get ready to admire the hundreds of thousands of rusting pylons from about 15 years onwards. Who cares about England's green and pleasant land when you can gaze into the distance over fields of black solar panels and wind turbines twice the height of Nelson's Column?

You won't find much, if any, reference to any of this on the likes of Google, which supresses any negative talk connected with so-called anthropological climate change. Google boasts "Our third decade of climate action: join us" on every page. Just as you'll be hard pushed to access data put forward by genuine scientists, who have spoken out against the global-warming: "we're all gonna die" unless we do what every other sanely managed country in the developed (and undeveloped world) is NOT doing, which is to take pointless and stupid steps to wreck Britain's economy, in the process making us all a lot poorer and and a lot colder, all on the altar created by virtue-signalling evil marxist fanatics.

Take 20 mins to listen to this - it's well worth doing:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aTfwqvNuk44&ab_channel=AllianceforResponsibleCitizenship

Starmer will ignore Trump. Ultimately it will cost him his job.

imo

dyor

Something factual (and eminently sensible) to consider for those with the inclination...........

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aTfwqvNuk44&ab_channel=AllianceforResponsibleCitizenship

Thanks onthe6 - hope you're well too. I continue to survive and try not to think about it too much. I avoid medics wherever possible, which seems to be paying dividends!

Happy Christmas to you and all other patient Joggers. I share Einbert's optimism and expect a sensible outcome to discussions on the two main present uncertainties, these being (1) guidance from the Supreme Court on their interpretation of the effects of scope 3 emissions and (2) for how many more years after 2030 should the "temporary" EPL (or something akin to it) remain in force (and at what punitive rates of tax) according to Rachel from accounts. Does she still think it's fair the UK's oil & gas industry should be milked of all its profits after 2030, so that she and her morally bankrupt and incompetent comrades can pi55 away countless billions on public sector layabouts and people who won't work - all in pursuit of her and Labour's socialist idealism and votes. She's after growth alright - growth of the State. Just need the private sector to pay for it.

These clowns must by now realise Milband's lies and nonsense will deny them tens of billions they need. And that's probably just to keep the IMF at bay.

Tax losses worth £30m cash; cash at bank of £12m; 25m barrels of API 33° slc fully carried through to production, 30mmboe further prospects (Cortina, Wengen and Verbier Deep) with straightforward tie-in potential; £16m due from NEO and SQZ on FDP approval. Present market value of JOG £15m. The downside is a long way over-cooked imv.

The dishonesty, dogma and downright incompetence of successive Govts have brought us to this. Fact is Britain needs the oil and the NEO/SQZ/JOG JV offer the best way of delivering it. The penny dropped with Rachel from accounts when she failed to follow through on her promise to reduce "over-generous" tax relief in the form of FYAs in the Budget at the end of Oct. They remained at 100%. An adult in the Treasury must have had a quiet word with her.

A limited number of seats remain on the bus. Ticket prices are set to increase in the new year - just sayin........

DYOR

......"have a good Christmas all and hoping 2025 will be a good deal more productive overall than this outgoing one".......

.......echo that Sasa. Hopefully sense will prevail from H1 2025 onwards and SQZ's SP gets a lot closer to true value. I've been adding in recent months - like you, I expect the dividend to be maintained, particularly with the addition of PMG's substantial losses to the pot. Where else is yield of 17.5% to be found? Reinvest it and the shares are paid for inside 5 years. That's the theory anyway!!

GLAL

All very depressing. The combination of economic incompetence and political idealism (based on an emperor's clothes approach to the subject) makes progress for UKCS-focused operators extremely difficult. The Conservatives were as bad as Labour has become, because they made it impossible for the EPL (originally said to be a "temporary" tax) to be lifted, by introducing a "release mechanism" the utterly dishonest terms of which make it impossible for these operators to avoid paying the full punitive rate of tax through to 2030. And now Reeves tells us further punishment will follow from 2030 onwards. One can only hope Labour gets booted out, then maybe sense will once again prevail (realistically probably only under "Reform").

There are probably others like me who are kicking themselves for having had a disproportionate amount invested in small/mid-cap UKCS-focused oil and gas operators. Like many others I suspect, I took all reasonable steps to understand and minimise risk, using some simple yardsticks, including engaging personally with key directors to get a better fix on their capability and integrity, ensuring they had enough skin in the game to keep them well-focused, understanding enough about the companies to see that the upside was worthwhile.

The one risk I didn't factor in was UK Govts -both Conservative and Labour - deciding to dishonestly help themselves to money hard won through the enterprise and efforts of people who are giants in every respect when measured against the slime- balls who are still intent on filling Government coffers as they destroy an industry Britain should value and be proud of, not treated as if it was a disease.

I hope the Christmas turkeys the low-life politicians responsible for this mess tuck into greedily this time next week will end up giving give them all salmonella.

dyor

Contd:

"Nevertheless, because of the Finch ruling both Shell’s Jackdaw project and Equinor’s Rosebank project will have to be re-approved, and the government will have to re-issue guidance on how EIA documents are prepared.

The industry awaits that guidance which is expected in the Spring. However, the industry is also awaiting guidance on the successor fiscal regime from 2030 onwards. From FDP approval to first oil is typically at least three years, the earliest we might see a new project FDP approved is late 2025 or 2026. What that means is that by far the bulk of the revenue from any new project of substance will be taxed under the successor regime. So, operators’ hands are tied, they need regulatory clarity, and they need fiscal clarity.

From Orcadian’s perspective, the Finch ruling is not a cause for concern. There is no harm in quantifying the impact of Scope 3 emissions, as their effect is expected to be negligible. As to emissions in the production process we are confident that the right approach is to minimise those and to eliminate the bulk of the transportation emissions by producing oil and gas in our own backyard.

However, we will have to wait and see how government intends to tax the industry in the longer term, and we hope for a balance between ensuring a fair return for investors and maximising government revenues. It is probably true to say that the current fiscal regime is demonstrating exactly how the Laffer curve works in practice, we are on the wrong side of the Laffer curve, and in fact government revenues will rise with a more attractive fiscal regime. We are confident that sense will prevail, and the industry will have a bright future in the UK. But we will all have to wait for the outcome of these consultations before any company commits to a new development project of scale and we are optimistic that Ping will move forward with its North Sea development portfolio once the mists have cleared in Spring.

However, despite all the gloom we see great opportunity in the UK. The pendulum always swings too far and this time taxes have gone too high, and the hurdles development projects have to clear have become too many. Things will change and there is hope that the companies that stick by the UK will eventually prosper".

https://orcadian.energy/results-for-the-year-ended-30-june-2024/

ORCA fell 21% this morning to 10.2p, giving it a market cap of around £8m. We are not alone! Truth will out.

dyor

Insightful commentary from ORCA's Chairman & CEO this morning (results announcement). Extends to 2 posts:

"UK Oil and Gas Sector

The UKCS oil and gas sector has had a Field Development Plan (“FDP”) approved since the Victory gas field in January 2024 and the Rosebank oil field in September 2023. The tally of a solitary field development plan approval in 2024 seems unlikely to be surpassed by the end of 2024. The year 2021, blighted by COVID, had the same score, but we have to go back to the dawn of the North Sea in 1975, when the Forties development was approved, to find another occurrence of such a low number of FDP approvals.

The reason is clear – the government has enacted punitive taxes which limit returns and the regulatory framework has been subjected to an incessant stream of lawfare which culminated in the Finch ruling requiring every Environmental Impact Assessment (“EIA”) to take into account Scope 3 emissions.

From Orcadian’s perspective, the Finch ruling does not raise concerns for us. Quantifying the impact of Scope 3 emissions is a reasonable step, as their effect is expected to be negligible. As an example, the Rosebank field will produce about 300 MMbbl of oil, that when combusted will produce about 134 million tonnes of carbon dioxide, which will increase the carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere by just under 0.02 parts per million, assuming nature absorbs nothing – a very unlikely assumption given about half of the carbon dioxide emitted from fossil fuels since the industrial revolution has been so absorbed. Using the IPCC central estimate for the impact on global temperatures of a doubling of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration – 3ºC – that increase in carbon dioxide concentration could increase global temperature by less than two ten thousandths of a degree, far below the level that any creature could perceive.

This is why action on climate change needs global agreement on actions to reduce demand for fossil fuel energy. Constraining supply can only impact demand by increasing the price of energy; increasing the price of energy will undermine support for any climate action. So, politicians and engineers alike need to focus on delivering low-carbon energy for the lowest cost possible. That is why our Earlham project is so important. It will deliver low to no carbon energy at an affordable cost and on a dispatchable basis. We hope to learn from that project so that we can implement repeat projects at lower costs".

TBC

Do us all a favour and apply the filter, would you JS? All you do is give the moron oxygen. Price is the result of supply and demand - that's all. When more people are selling than buying the price goes down, regardless of volumes involved. MMs always make a living. When favourable news arrives, there will be an unholy scrambled to jump on board - with many missing out because people like me (and other LTHs) won't let our shares go for peanuts. A market cap for JOG of £16m is just silly. It has nearly that in cash alone, ignoring losses with a cash value of nearly £30m and the little matter of a fully carried 20mmboe of fully carried oil in Buchan that's worth £ low hundreds of millions when it comes to the surface, starting later this decade. FDP approval alone will be worth $20m to JOG, likely Q2 2025.

Patience is the key word. Everyone knows renewables as envisaged by Miliband and the other liars (who to add to the farce don't understand the first thing about the industry or real business economics) will be found out - sooner rather than later.

dyor

FJ - 80% tax would only be fair if the cost of the coffee beans was disallowed for tax purposes. Obviously finance costs would have to be added back. And no brought forward tax losses to be available to offset against profits either (not that there would be many).

Labour certainly has the pulse on attracting business to the UK and keeping our economy flying.

Rachel from accounts continues to show her total incompetence in all matters economic and fiscal. The one thing markets can't handle is uncertainty, yet all she has done since Labour was disastrously voted into Gov't in July is cause it in spades. No UKCS oil or gas operator can plan beyond about next week, given everything that's up in the air following the illogical Supreme Court rulings on EIAs (scope 3 emissions), the dishonest application of punitive windfall tax rates by HMRC on the entire profits any UKCS upstream operator manages to make and a seeming determination by these cretins in Gov't to continue to tax the industry to oblivion, as the scandalously extended (to 8 years) pretence continues to be made that profits being made by UKCS oil & gas cos are "extraordinary". They are - they're "extraordinarily" mediocre.

I cannot for the life of me understand why the industry, as a body, has not sued the pants off the UK Gov't (both Conservative and Labour) on the simple premise of "equity". The taxes imposed are palpably unfair and go way further than their declared purpose. They amount to theft.

Regardless, according to my DCF projections forward to 2034, the Buchan project works, in that it produces a NPV10 value of around $600m on total revenues of around $6bn, assuming first oil in 2028 and a tax rate of 40% from 2031 onwards. Other assumptions include: BC price $75 throughout; 100% FYAs continue outside the EPL (ie 100% allowance - 78% x capex spend); 35kbpd production for 330 days pa; $25pb G&A. These numbers are for the whole project. JOG's returns would be proportionally higher , given it has no capex.

I assume people have seen today's news re SQZ/PMG? It's illogical to think SQZ won't have run a slide-rule over JOG, but I doubt (given the terms of the announced deal) that anything hinted at would have been of interest to JOG. SQZ paid PMG $1pb for resources a lot less certain than those in the GBA and acquired a whole pile of tax losses for next to nothing. One can only assume PMG couldn't see a way to utilise these, which is no surprise as it didn't have the funds to develop licences that SQZ can now just tuck away until sense prevails in the UK. In the meantime, the b/fwd losses can be offset against the profits (before tax) SQZ is making at present BC/NBP prices on its NS production.

More patience is needed here. I doubt we'll hear much until there's more clarity on the scope 3 nonsense and tax rates post 2030 (by which time Labour will hopefully be history). In the meantime, one can but hope for power cuts in abundance

dyor

Https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GxUm3cOA7Ow&ab_channel=TomNelson

Agree with Banburyboy - Craven Walker, Flegg and the doddering CFO should truly be ashamed of themselves for putting their interests ahead of shareholders in rejecting a merger with Kistos that would have yielded SQZ holders 425p a share in July 2022. More than 27% of shareholders then told CW, Flegg et al the Tailwind deal was way over the top and placed SQZ in a vulnerable position. Where are they now I wonder? Did anyone ever see the terms on which they scuttled away inside a year, options converted and very probably sold and the money banked?

Leaves a very nasty taste when the assets they overpaid so royally for are now failing to cut the mustard.

SQZ is a sitting duck if Mercuria should decide now is the right time to "round off the circle". On the positive side, regarding the production problems with the Triton hub, one might say it is a matter of delay in production volumes and that commensurately more mmboe of oil will now surface after tax rates return to more normal levels (post 2030).

In the meantime, management needs to provide reassurance on maintenance of dividends - assuming this is what it will be. There might be opportunities for those with the cash and the balls, to add at levels that couldn't have even been imagined less than 2 years ago

dyor

"Cannot understand the rationale as the company has no licenses".........

..........possibly ORCA wanted Halo's tax losses? Last Halo accounts filed were for 2019:

See Note 5 on P20 in the linked accounts:

https://s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/document-api-images-live.ch.gov.uk/docs/4NAfgNJhPw9Vr-mf9Iv0nWOyPebXoogFgcKb5OaWRKI/application-pdf?X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=ASIAWRGBDBV3B2PLVFWP%2F20241203%2Feu-west-2%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20241203T171412Z&X-Amz-Expires=60&X-Amz-Security-Token=IQoJb3JpZ2luX2VjEDEaCWV1LXdlc3QtMiJIMEYCIQDEXpSIQtwcFJ%2FrOqLFEd4ssoLyjn2I9T8CuU9vRk2JYAIhAOgSX0X5wUqgwo2YY5lhQUvZ0Ack7ubgiV79S0U7KemAKsMFCNr%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2FwEQBRoMNDQ5MjI5MDMyODIyIgyuhZVE5QZEfuD5DYUqlwUSLAfoO45iDz8Qr2vIWPh4HK3oEDYZiBbL%2FQnIB3NIdpo9GVxYMUeb8jScbMN%2Fgphfvmu5S9h8jC1p5xx8GLQqqW%2FsNoQMblk%2Ft8qfinteLsYNy97OlvQOEjeA3HrQW5QriZUeLGjeKYE024P9ELxG9EU4WUFBLt5r4cSarELlwpDluNfVsaYIRId4RU7e9y7HrGkXYwqYtCQ%2FY6JCASrBwU1QaS4UbXO5Cc2H7RM3cu7N9RiD4%2BsMbA1xE%2BN11BZ%2Fzonv8mzMY17XE87WohQslMAcnQEjhyBwKLbCRNfSINHaQ4jwht1E8%2FXx82Uobz6Kt7uA%2BKiAQ7PMAnK3UYmJqAmyVMSV59ieal4M8sBzruG1HIeiJo%2FCzyIB4%2BmPdY8dNWQqtnsGydiUkWFxDDK3Nsm6IMi4RjHfHwRbOI4r3F14Y4h4UzzrI5Fc%2FzAdD7ISUAo6OzY5KrVC4vXBId4om93b2JqJcjFAAYVVMN%2FNTemiyie7Qve0G%2BSUzfT0kSnBXtdwH1VuMV5atm6JsRaKri1wcHexXslPokA2OlGopWV3NLpaX9BBBejzC5uYrGrSM7JVoV9K29VSGDwbTv6vuL8oES9swDbKcd%2BDjs3Pc5Vr6Y5XLoOZVPz%2FaLknQzPhLc8H4N0D2Zk3JxIhonpGkOm%2BcRX%2BsarSZuZ63rY5%2FSblkY1uY%2BANWdrz1XPmtZOxbyQR80rHmaqhIFK5v5Vl65pFaljnA5TpKdbAZ6izYg73AfNMaOP6tZORTsXrzqs%2F5iDQ6AFUiZFpDZFqwQmwTE1UKkehHdREeizD8L0K6czYR3zcJpQHlHYItgeoVNE0XcoaFyLViIh3jG8ZHF8g%2FASP6xDRm4EYe6zejYiEDrvV4eDp5Gcwzu28ugY6sAGIsaHMlAjzFNj1tLzaoxkPauN6UUBlRysqvGNBZ0pDfyRO7sK3Lm6x9fUjwoVpGtTZpT5M%2BZmoW6JhexYfogK4PR7Mm898%2FoBydPeli2odhN5hbqOy%2FAmvCQj2QS99r22Es4pQa2qLIgLEPte%2FEgQ%2FC%2BJzVerwQn5BxqrhZCgFEv37A9t90UcosDH3kbQ2pJgc5X7bO6GWMLPtl4zoPhAR2QwgGSwhuuxw9y2qrptXDQ%3D%3D&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&response-content-disposition=inline%3Bfilename%3D%22companies_house_document.pdf%22&X-Amz-Signature=b18a5111ef5d514d8a80dd31ba52232fa1a24a3bb7eab323d74fe88015615a70

"In another few lifetimes there will be no "British" in Great Britain".......

........or "Great"........

.........and I doubt it will take few lifetimes either. More like a few months with this lot...........

A short presentation setting out some facts some might find interesting.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2lseti5zvY0&ab_channel=FactsMatterwithRomanBalmakov

......" Post tax loss utilisation it becomes a pointless company handing over around 80% of its profits to HMRC, whilst shouldering all the risk"..............

............like every other UKCS-focused O&G companies perhaps?

Reality will hit the politicians as UK folk increasingly feel the effects of Miliband's (and Labour's) dishonest and hugely damaging crusade. There'll be clarity within the next 6 months on what will replace the EPL. Whatever it is has to allow UKCS upstream operators to make profits or the NS will become a graveyard. Even Labour must realise that to become 80% dependent on overseas countries, not all signed up to the "we love GB" club - which Britain will be by 2035 at the present rate of NS decline - is not a situation to aim for.

Whilst there are aspects of SQZ's status and performance one might criticise, these seem to me to stem from the neurosis of former management following Kistos's unwelcome approach 3 years ago, which threatened their comfortable positions. I won't go into how much was (over)paid for Tailwind, or the potential consequences of leaving shareholders exposed to a Swiss hedge fund. Nothing has so far suggested it intends to act negatively (from a shareholder's perspective). So far so good in this regard, but in any event any bid by M would have to be at a lot more than the shares are currently trading. What's not to like about an 18% dividend yield anyway.

Looking beyond 30 months in the current climate seems to me to be a fruitless exercise. So many different things might happen. There is upside as well as the downside various posters solely refer to. The current senior management team is still settling in. I don't hold the NKOTB responsible for the production shortfall arising from the unexpected outages. Hopefully the problem is now fixed and production will settle at the rates now forecast.

I have been adding lately based on the dividend being maintained, sentiment in the sector improving as reality dawns on the masses, politicians acting a bit more sensibly and management performing competently. Note that I don't refer to potential upside. This is because my crystal ball is broken. I have had to resort to the old-fashioned "show me the money" approach to investing and have seen an 18% dividend for 2 years at least.

In 3 or 4 years time, people will be wondering why they didn't buy more when the yield was 18% and there was so little downside................

jmofwiw

dyor

The most powerful indictment yet of Miliband for his utter stupidity. He'll still be dishonestly claiming renewables are cheaper and more efficient and that Britain must lead by example, as the men in white coats cart him away, hopefully never to be seen again anywhere he can cause harm............