Member Info for Dibs61

NimNar - good luck with your purchase.

I see a few others have dipped their toes in the water after another wobble earlier.

A point about cash. Currently I estimate they have around £3m cash left in the kitty. I would think that would be sufficient to cover any additional initial costs involved in setting up the developing ERF scenario. Particularly as they have an implementation partner to provide bodies. Expansion of their own workforce would’ve been costly but that’s not going to happen. At least not on a large scale, if at all.

Fortune favours the brave I_B! At this price its back down to barely EV £3m valuation. Just one single ICB contract could blow that out of the water.

You pays your money you takes your choice….

Oh dear someone is pressing their panic button this morning. The pessimistic narrative is def back in charge again! Isn’t it amazing that just five short days ago PI’s were prepared to pay up to 65p for this but won’t touch it with a barge pole at TWENTY pence less now! When NOTHING has changed😂

I do find investor mentality and psychology fascinating. We either seem to behave like sheep or lemmings depending on price movements!

The fact remains if you believe last weeks announcement this is an incredible buying opportunity.

Before it powers on quickly to $3,000

It’s just one trading day. That’s the way to look at it. Low volume against Wednesday when we saw huge volume and all the buying. But I hold my hands up. I thought we could see a quid before the end of the week. How wrong can you be?

I think that after the initial burst of positivity we are seeing a return to the pessimistic narrative. As I said the other day there have been false dawns previously where, for one reason or another, this has not delivered. Sentiment is everything in a market like this. We’ve seen it so many times before.. There is understandably a lot of scepticism. I can understand it.

In reality nothing has changed since Wednesday. I will be a bit surprised if it drops much further. What a buying opportunity though IF they can deliver. Someone made a fair point That just because you are eligible for something doesn’t mean you will receive it. We have all been on the receiving end of Toms nods and winks and boundless optimism.

I think the two things that give me my main source of hope and optimism are a.) They have already done roadshows with ICB’s using this model and have seen interest - ‘warmed up’ was his expression as I recall.

b.) the fact they have now teamed up with an very credible implementation partner, Moorhouse. Moorhouse seem very keen and I do not believe they would’ve signed up for this (as an established NHS supplier of services) if they weren’t confident they could see firm business coming down the pipeline.

One final point. There was absolutely NO mention of any pilots. So we can assume the evidence built up by Bleepa in all settings has been accepted. It is just a case of who wants to go ahead, sorting out contract details and then getting started.

With winter looming and waiting lists continuing to rise there will surely have to be a sense of urgency.

And this is also my purchase - NOT a sell:

18-Oct-24 09:00:57 5.60 36,981 2,071 O

Can’t say I’m not putting my money where my mouth is!

But I have researched this extensively and am convinced that at this valuation it is ridiculously undervalued compared to its growth prospects both short and long term under a new proven CEO who has already achieved commercial success in this same space with Keronite taking it into profit and selling it to a large coatings company. Once this company is driving profits it will hands down be an attractive proposition to complement a larger operation.

Trading update IMMINENT.

Ref the 26 March RNS re Launch of Ready Coated Component Range

Steve Paul, then then interim CEO was ‘extremely excited’ about this product launch back in March. I decided to do some research on the specific product they launched and this is what I uncovered:

The thermal spray copper nozzles industry is a niche yet essential segment within the broader thermal spray coatings market. Thermal spray processes involve the use of high-temperature nozzles made from copper or copper alloys to apply coatings to various materials, improving their durability, corrosion resistance, and thermal properties. These nozzles are critical for processes such as plasma spraying and flame spraying, used in industries like aerospace, automotive, electronics, and energy.

Market Size and Growth Factors:

1. Global Thermal Spray Market: The overall thermal spray market was valued at around $10 billion in 2023, and it is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6-7% over the next few years. While copper nozzles are a small fraction of this market, they represent a crucial component in the industry .

2. Demand Drivers: The increasing use of thermal spray processes in high-performance industries such as aerospace and automotive is driving the demand for copper nozzles. The aerospace sector, in particular, relies heavily on thermal spray coatings for jet engine parts and turbine components, which require precise nozzle performance.

3. Regional Focus: North America and Europe are key regions in the thermal spray market, with the US and the UK playing significant roles in terms of production and consumption. The growing manufacturing sectors in these regions continue to fuel demand for high-quality thermal spray components, including copper nozzles.

4. Technological Advancements: Advances in thermal spray technologies, such as more efficient plasma spray nozzles and innovations in material science, are also contributing to the growth of the copper nozzles market. Improved durability, precision, and cost-efficiency are leading trends in nozzle design.

Though exact figures specific to thermal spray copper nozzles are hard to find, they form a vital component of the larger thermal spray equipment market, which is expected to expand as manufacturing sectors requiring high-performance coatings continue to grow.

Conclusion: Hardide have entered a substantial growth market with a product that is ‘crucial’ to associated industries. This opens up a new revenue stream and I expect positive news in terms of growth and prospects. All the indicators looked positive back in March.

This is shown as red but is my BUY:

18-Oct-24 08:23:47 5.64 33,886 1,911 O

Probably today is the last opportunity to add or get in before what I expect to be a very positive trading update next Monday or Tuesday latest.

Smashes through it. Currently $2708.

I have copied and pasted the answer to a question I posed to ChatGPT. My question was ‘ What is the current state of NHS waiting lists ’

Answer:

As of October 2024, the NHS waiting list in England has reached approximately 7.75 million people, with projections suggesting it could surpass 8 million before stabilizing by the end of the year. Despite efforts to reduce the backlog caused by the pandemic, including the NHS’s elective care recovery plan, progress has been hindered by a variety of factors. Industrial action by healthcare workers, including strikes by junior doctors and consultants, has contributed to the increase, although it accounts for only a small portion of the rise. Moreover, seasonal pressures like flu and COVID-19, as well as long-standing issues such as underinvestment and staff shortages, have further exacerbated the situation.

NHS activity levels have increased significantly since the pandemic, with record numbers of treatments and diagnostic tests conducted in recent months. However, the number of new referrals continues to exceed completed treatments, keeping the overall waiting list on the rise. The government had set targets to reduce waiting times, but these have proven difficult to meet

So we can extrapolate from this answer that it is virtually inconceivable that the Government can scrap the ERF. Indeed, if anything they may have to increase the available £3.2bn annual pot (based on 2023 figures)

Or They will have to find another funding mechanism but the ERF is now Established and appreciated within the NHS. The PBR method is not perfect but does achieve measurable outcomes.

I am confident therefore that we will see the ERF or similar, Continue next year and beyond.

You can see there is a lot of doubt and suspicion here. So many false dawns before. Like I said last night a lot of people cannot bring themselves to believe this is a breakthrough. Sentiment is built not only through hope and greed, but trust as well.

I’m keeping some powder dry to add further. Haven’t sold any myself. It’s clear a good few who bought yesterday have already bailed.

I agree that, of course, the ERF pot is open to all operational areas of the NHS not just the area FDBK work in. That is a given. But it is a large pot £3.2bn.

In terms of getting the message out there. Trust me the message got out yesterday. I have never seen volume like it here. I also like the point about CEO’s trying too hard with all the interviews. I’m hoping TO and Co. are simply too busy now to bother with lots of media phaff.

Quite relaxed about a drop back. See it as an opportunity. Clear out weak hands. Build from there. What particularly gives me more confidence is they have a very keen very professional management consultant partner onboard who know and understand the NHS and have a network of clients and contacts within the NHS themselves. They have the know how and resources to help FDBK pull this off.

News shouldn’t be too long incoming. A lot going on now in fact on different fronts. Watch the private sector as well.

Lastly, in terms of cash, they have roughly £3m still in the kitty which should be more than enough short term to meet extra demands on them with this new development. They have no need to recruit or train (other than training the trainer ie.Moorhouse)

So take your positions and let’s see how this unfolds. This is not something months or years down the road. This is now.

I do agree, there is absolutely no reason why this should now take long. Agree, draft, sign off, bang. One imagines each one would have a similar basic structure, maybe scoping differing a bit , plus deliverables, pathways, payment terms on results etc. The fact they are partnering with a top MC firm will help hugely.

And with contract valuations circa £2m they will all be eminently RNS’able.

Oh btw I checked and Moorhouse have a 300+ workforce so plenty of consultants on the ground.

Now my thoughts on valuation. Even after todays 50%+ rise the MC is still a tiny £7.47m and the EV (a more accurate valuation imo) is just £4.47m (based on £3m cash remaining as of today).

In my last post I suggested a hypothetical scenario that FDBK initially land a small number of ICB Contracts. Let’s say 6. I think that’s reasonable. And suppose they received two million per annum per contract. So that’s £12 million pa plus this is indeed recurring revenue. Recurring revenue would receive a higher valuation premium by the market.. the most recent financial results produced £1million pa. So this would be a 1200% increase.

We don’t yet know what the margins will be as that will also affect the valuation.

But as The market will surely value this as a growth stock it’s not unreasonable to assume on 12 million revenue which will definitely produce a reasonable profit. The market CAP could be at least 50 million.

This would give a SP of £3.75. Today it is 56p. That’s not far off a seven bagger from here.

And I do not believe this is outlandish. It’s based on just landing 6 out of 42 ICB’s in England alone. Doesn’t even include Scotland or Wales.

You can do the maths based on 6 out of 42. Just 7 x £3.75 lol. Crazy.

Anyone who thinks they missed the boat today the train has barely left the station.

I do recommend for anyone who has not yet either read or fully understood the RNS read it and read it again! I have read it 3 times now and I completely understand it.

The first time I read it I was curious and interested. The cynicism and scepticism still slightly outweighed the optimism. It feels like we’ve all been here before etc etc. But I read it again and it started to sink in., the implications.

This time it could well be different. And notice no pilots no drawn out testing of the technology. This is happening NOW. In real time. Hard to believe really if you’ve been here as long as I have and I know many have been here much longer than me. Which is why I am keen to get the view of the likes of Private Ryan, Elartu, seaview, vascular, IB, and any other long termers I’ve forgotten to mention.

FWIW, and forgive the hyperbole, but this could really be what we have been waiting for all these years. Pilots completed ✅ Evidence of Benefits produced✅ Case for Bleepa proven✅The all important necessary funding in place✅ Implementation Partner secured and ready✅

So is it really all systems go now? I think THAT is the psychological barrier we as investors, and potential investors, have to cross. But it’s all there in the RNS.

OK, so a ‘potential’ and obvious pit fall. Funding is only guaranteed on the ERF until next March 2025. A few points on that. Firstly, the plan was originally executed in early 2022 after Covid to reduce waiting lists. It was scheduled to run for 3 years to end thus in 2025. However waiting lists have not been brought down to all the target levels. So, it is likely that it will simply be extended next year OR they will come up with another revenue/results mechanism to take its place. What is the alternative? Waiting lists HAVE to be brought down. It is a political imperative.

My other thought was let us imagine that FDBK initially land a small number of ICB contracts. They get to work. The Trusts quickly see the benefits and positive outcomes. Word will get out to other ICB’s and Trusts. Do you think they will want to miss out? It’s not an impossibility to foresee literally every ICB in England using this sooner or later. Back to the funding though. Imagine you were a trust using bleeper Through a contract on ERF funding And that ran out next March and was not reviewed by a new ERF funding pot. DON’T YOU THINK THAT TRUST WOULD BE PUTTING IMMENSE PRESSURE ON THE COMMISSIONERS TO ALLOCATE FUNDS? The Trust would have seen the benefits and achieved the positive outcomes from reductions in their waiting lists. Do you think they would be willing to let that go? or do you think they would find the funding by hook or by crook? Either through additional funding or their allocated budget.

I’m giving the pessimistic case there. Personally, I think a new pot of funding will have to be allocated again next year and probably the year after. And the year aft

They have cut costs and taking that into account the monthly cash burn is between £200/225k. Possibly slightly less.

So I approximate the current cash position as circa £3m. That gives them a good cash runway for another 9/12 months.

EV now £4.4m for a potential £84m revenue opportunity. Not in a year or two years but starting now. Immediate.

MarketAnalyst- no one is taking you seriously😉predictable games starting from those who missed out this morning 😁

Not worried. Just want to seize the opportunity. Waiting to pounce. Patience.

If we have a decent dip I’m using that to add more as things stand. I can understand taking profits but I think you’re selling yourself short personally.

In all the years i’ve been following this stock I’ve never seen such volume. Incredible.

Over 56% of the 13.3m shares are in sticky hands ie.institutions, HNW’s and management.

That’s not much stock left to play with!