Member Info for Dibs61

Gold price down 0.27%

PAF down 1.93%

This should be seen as an opportunity to add as the market seems to be forgetting, or overlooking, the fact Gold has gone up over 700 bucks in the past year.

CEO putting some substantial skin into the game. Aligning nicely with shareholders. This is what we like to see.

oh i have a very good take on world politics but i do not ***** myself to a certain ideology for a few pence on a sp. i understand trump and harris perfectly well.

there is a whole big world beyond the us. maybe you are the one that doesn’t understand that.

Bearded Dragon utter nonsense. Europe is a big enough market on its own! And ITM are front and centre in Europe.

The gun has been fired! M&A in the sector has started. We see it with PAF today and boy does that look like a cracking deal. Less than £50m for 50k extra ounces Pa decent grade. Full production Q1 2026. Wow.

I think deals like this are going to start lifting the sector up and we will see more and more M&A action. This is another symptom of the next stage of the bull market. All imho.

Great post rosetintedspecs. Totally concur.

My thoughts - if you are a major like Harmony Gold now chucking off cash at an unparalleled rate you don’t want or need JV’s with micro explorers. You want 100% of the assets. You don’t want the hassle of extra costs on greenfield exploration if you can just snap them up with back pocket cash! Especially when it’s next door! It makes no sense to either Harmony and certainly not Lexington to hold onto something you are not going to develop. From a Lexington perspective monetise it. From a Harmony perspective Buy it up and place it somewhere appropriate in your development pipeline. Job done.

I’ll be very surprised if Harmony themselves is not one of those majors who are ‘interested’.

But of course if we could start an auction that would be even better.

As you say this is a perfect opportunity to accumulate while the price is very subdued. Near its lows and absolutely no interest! Wonderful for us ‘in the know’.

I would say this is about as low risk as you could possibly imagine in the gold exploration sector. It has assets in the ground - that aren’t going anywhere. It’s valuation is, as you have pointed out, massively discounted to the average price ‘in the ground’

As if all that wasn’t enough they have many thousands of prospective acreage with an enviable database of drilling data which, in itself, must hold substantial value.

The US needs a Harris presidency like a hole in the head. The destruction they have wrought on the American public in the last four years is a disgrace. Worst administration in US history.

Tom has been bending over to the NHS for years giving them freebies and the QVH contract was a farce nearly 50% under the tender value. Soft touch and they have his measure.

I knew you would come on Jimmy. JCL. I have years of experience on this stock and even I managed to get caught with my pants down.

I posted first thing yesterday I had sold my stock. Totally transparent. When the circumstances change - and believe me they have - you either accept it or change tack. By 7:30 yesterday morning I knew all I needed to know.

On the AIM market Jimmy you have to be realistic and nimble where you can. It can and is often a casino. I held my hands up yesterday and admitted I’d got it wrong. I didn’t see anyone else do that. Their actions speak far louder than their words. Their director buys are laughable in comparison to their earnings. Tell me how much Oakley earns Jimmy? Tell me why they need a FT CFO? For a company earning corner shop revenue and maybe one or two PO’s and invoices to process a month.

As for Unicorn I’m finding some amusing irony in their name. They are stuck. They cannot sell their existing stake - clearly. What do they do? Watch it sink and lose their entire stake? Or hold their nose and take some more to keep the lights on and HOPE it works out. That’s all it is. Tom Oakley clearly has NO visibility on future revenues and I forecast that no ICB contracts will land now. Yesterday’s RNS confirmed it without saying it.

I read RNS’s with great scrutiny. Did you notice for example that TO had demoted the ICB DEAG ‘opportunity’ to no.TWO in his list of goodies behind the primary care collaboration. Did you?

It was a step change in their commercial prospects three weeks ago and now it’s no.2 on their list. Look, if you and IB and the rest get lucky good luck to you and I will be pleased for LTH’s here.

Feel free to save this post and remind me if I’m wrong.

Where is it this year? The past few years Twinkle eyed Tom has presented his thoughts and, let’s be fair, the odd nod and a wink too.

Where is he this year? Can even Tom not bring himself to offer another cheeky grin and a little twinkle in his eye to loyal shareholders who have just suffered another 50% plus lopped off their holdings? It appears not. A deafening silence. Crickets.

But don’t worry folks those contracts are landing sooooon!

NT?! What are you talking about. you must have a pretty crappy broker I’ve been able to (dummy) buy all morning in quantity.

And the Ask is dropping slowly. Which tells you they have sells to offload on the other side of the book.

Jimmy read the RNS. EBITDA profitability now forecast for 2027. That is over TWO years away. Explain how you marry that up with multiple near term £2m contracts? I’m sure I know what your cute answer will be …go ahead. 😂🤦‍♂️

Jimmy you need to ask yourself why they needed £5m now when all these ‘near term’ contracts are so tantalisingly close. Well I will tell you. Because they were running on fumes. Because they know these contracts are not coming and they are burning so much cash they need money to pay Tom and co wages. You will believe what you wish to believe but you have not been here anywhere near as long as most of us. We have seen it all before. I guarantee you will not be quite as bullish once the SP sinks under the placing price - like the vast majority of AIM placings do. I have explained in detail my reasoning behind what has happened here. You waiting for contracts here now is pie in the sky - all you’ll hear now is crickets.

Ian of course the amount is relevant because the more they ask for the greater the dilution.

This is a toxic mix of a large cash sum £5m combined with a scandalous discount of 55%.

Shareholders have been absolutely shafted. From an FCA perspective they have probably managed to cover their grubby little asses with their wording ‘potential’ ‘may’ ‘maybe’ ‘could’ etc etc

But this is up there with the most stinky episodes in AIM history.

Trust Oakley again at your peril.

Jimmy pull your head out of the sand. £5m @ 20p is HUGE dilution with a current MC of just over £3m. That’s going to more than double the shares in issue. They haven’t yet announced how many millions of confetti will be issued but it’s going to dilute the hell out of shareholders.

Quote:

‘Certain Directors intend to participate in the Subscription ("Director Participation"). It is intended that the Director Participation will comprise approximately £30,500 in aggregate through the issue of 152,500 New Ordinary Shares at the Issue Price. Further details will be announced as appropriate in due course. The Subscription is conditional on the Placing.’

Why do they refer to the ‘issue’ of a separate 152,500 shares? Are they actually BUYING these shares or being issued with them? 🤷‍♂️to me it is unclear.

Vascular - perhaps this will go someway to answer your question… Cashburn. I don’t think there was much left in the bank.

Check out the finances and these are quoted directly from the trading update in May and today’s results:

The Company's cash balance as at 30 April 2024 was £4.3m.

Cash as at 31 May 2024 was £3.88m

So we can see they burnt £420k in May alone! Repeated over 12 months that’s £5m.

Jimmy - unfortunately that has now become a very weak argument. Because Moorhouse have nothing to lose. FDBK don’t win any contracts? OK Moorhouse don’t have to deploy any resources. No loss to Moorhouse their people get deployed somewhere else where they make money.

I think this partnering statement was very crafty on Oakleys part. Again, I admit in hindsight.

Ian12 exactly my point.

Of all the things announced today the thing that was most eye popping for me was EBIDA positive in 2027? What? With all these £2m ‘near term’ contracts. Doesn’t add up does it.

I held my hands up faramog.

But imho a LOT has changed. Today’s development tells us everything we need to know. That Oakley and co have secured their salaries for another two years or so.

And ref my previous post read between the lines and consider the politics here. ERF has manifestly failed. It had three years to work and it didn’t. Waiting lists have gone up. From a political perspective why on earth would a new government continue a failed policy initiative?

The definition of insanity is continuing to do the same thing (which doesn’t work) and expecting a different result. I wish I’d figure this out last week as opposed to over the weekend and I might have saved myself some money.