Member Info for Dibs61

It just gets better and better…… All beginning to make sense now the desperation.

https://www.companiesintheuk.co.uk/accounts-analysis/helikon-investments/25685578

Dec 2022 Revenue more than HALVED. Total Liabilities more than DOUBLED.

These are the most recent accounts available for this outfit but not a good trend. Not a pretty picture. Pretty sure they haven’t got millions to throw around on buying back £7 MILLION worth of shares. Note they actually have HALVED their biggest short position by early last year. Haven’t budged since. Was this by design or did they just get VERY lucky in a poor sector sentiment situation? Did they, have they, got the cash to buy the shares back? My guess is they didn’t and perhaps they still don’t. One thing is for sure their latest available financial accounts make ITM look like true winners lol.

Speaking of Helikon, let’s turn the spotlight on THEIR finances shall we?

https://www.companiesintheuk.co.uk/ltd/helikon-investments

The 2022 figures I see in this link surprised me. They are tiny! Small fry in the investing world. Stickleback lol.

So this short position is VERY important to them.

Dec 2022

Cash in bank £4.19m lol

Shareholders funds £7.33m

Listen even if those figures have improved, and with the help of this short position the PAPER figure will probably be higher.

Buy they have £7m worth of shares to buy back here, and going by those tiny numbers above you wonder where they will get the liquidity from!?

No wonder Statler and Waldorf are on here - ON CALL LOL - 24/7!

Yes although Helikon did pull a blinder on this particular stock but maybe they haven’t done so well elsewhere. That would not be surprising. No hedge fund manager is THAT good. Hmmm need to have the liquidity to buy back all those millions of shares.

No use sitting there like a rabbit in the headlights.

Better pray for no more positive news if you're Statler and Waldorf. The Helikon gofers. Or as good as!😂🤷‍♂️🤡

Just be careful boys a lot more downside than upside at this level. Wouldn’t want to have all that profit eaten into. What an opportunity would be missed then. Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

Nearly EIGHTEEN million shares to buy back. Now imagine if you tried to do that in a rising market where sentiment is turning?🤔

Ouch.

😂😂😂👍🏻

4 x 100k+ buys printed in past 30 mins. Interesting.

Volume rising on todays gain.

Oh and I forgot to mention that Oakleys LinkedIn post re a model for a future business model to reduce waiting lists was openly challenged by a couple of senior NHS doctors. I didn’t see anybody come on to support it.

Don’t get me wrong, if they actually begin to deliver tangible outcomes ie.million + contracts I will jump back in. But not before. This is burning cash at a rate of approximately £500k now.

So the c,ock is ticking

From my pov history shows us that it is impossible to second guess what will unravel and with the pain of previous experience extreme caution should be shown. If some juicy contracts DO begin to emerge - great - I no longer care about missing out on a few pence gain. At this level a few million + contracts would probably make this multi bag. So I will keep my powder firmly dry.

There have been many promising scenarios here in the past than nobody can dispute which have produced nothing. This is just another scenario. And I don’t believe this time will be any different. Oakleys LinkedIn post at the weekend sounded like it was born more out of frustration than anticipation.

Buy on outcomes not blind optimism. That has to be the strategy here now because if 2025 does not deliver this will become another micro penny share and then 18p will look exceptional.

Seaangler - classic narcissistic behaviour. Self righteous yet very fragile egos - example ‘why are you saying I post so much when Jeff posts more’ 😂

I have often wondered what their true purpose here as there doesn’t appear to be any! Oh other than the ‘public duty service’ they are kindly bequeathing.😁👍🏻

But I have realised it’s quite simple. Their sole purpose is supply. Attention. Negative or positive it doesn’t matter it feeds them, literally. Classic online trolling. Jeff is ‘Ricks’ main supply. He has latched onto him because he will always get the attention he craves from him.

We, on the other hand, are here for a very different reason. A perfectly logical,reason.

We are invested.

What is remarkable is that he has clearly spent a lot of time and effort digging out another posters history and ……… NOBODY CARES. I took one glance at it, saw what it was, and didn’t even bother reading it. Because it’s juvenile BS.

Nobody cares Rick. Nobody cares.

Cue accusation that I am another ‘Jeff’ account. Another year another big 🥱😂

To all the long suffering shareholders here. I hope you enjoy better fortune in the coming year.

And who knows I may join you if you do!

Please stop Rick you’re too funny. And more than a little weird. I will leave you to your little games now. Have fun. But don’t forget to book that appointment with a therapist.

Happy New Year! 😂👍🏻

Rick - that is one seriously bats*it crazy post but thanks it gave me a good laugh this morning. Your desperation is growing greater by the day. Yesterday for example you posted no less than 12 times in the first 2/3 hours of trading. Seriously? This is deeply disturbing. Try taking a little time off this clearly is not good for your mental health.

Yes Jimmy it does but that is a Tender Notice not a Contract Award. Two entirely separate things and we have seen how awards can be substantially less than the original notice.

Delaying until new year is neither a good or a bad sign. It probably means they are all on holidays at Feedback Towers!

PrivateRyan - ok so that ‘original’ contract was £495k for 12 months. So perhaps this is a new contract which supersedes it for an extended period? And, if so, perhaps my supposition was incorrect and, as Jimmy says, it is £495k pa. But in the latest contract award it clearly does not say £2m over four years. Nor does it say £495k per annum!

Confused? Yes definitely!

Forgot to mention does a contract of £125k pa even cover Feedbacks costs for providing the platform, maintenance and support of Bleepa? What’s the net Margin going to be in cash terms/percentage? I think we can reasonably say modest.

I guess you will say yes but it could be the first of many. Perhaps but the main QVH trust contract was also miserly and was supposed to be the ‘blueprint’ but has led to nothing.

It’s clear these people at QVH have Tom Oakley over a barrel.

This company desperately needs a top executive who will insist upon gaining value for its shareholders and not rolling over on their Belly for their former NHS colleagues. This company is being run like a freaking charity where the only winners are Oakley and his cohorts.

Look Bill, yes it’s a contract award and well done for finding it. But £500k award for FOUR years!

Come on I don’t know if you thought maybe one year? That’s revenue of just £125k per year. Barely going to make any difference. And it’s an existing customer too not a new one. And it’s CDC’s not the shiny new £2m ICB’s.

So yes an RNS likely on the way. Will possibly be a modest spike (but don’t bet on it) until the market catches on that it’s small beer actually.

Now, an ICB contract or two would almost def move the dial but I am very dubious about this for reasons already stated.

Rick, I am totally baffled by your ‘calculation’. £5m Cashburn pm would equate to an annual loss of £60m. They have specifically stated £32-36m loss pa. It’s not so difficult to grasp.

“ITM’s most recent guidance is £32-£36 million loss for the current year which equates to an average monthly Cashburn of £2.6-£3m.”

And btw extremely light volume today making it very very easy to manipulate the price ;) as I just know someone is going to be on here any minute now getting terribly excited about the drop today.

This argument about a specific company - one company - holding a short position works both ways. How about a company with a far more significant LONG position in ITM.

Linde PLC is a global multinational company and is the world’s largest industrial gas company. Linde has a 16.2% stake in ITM Power. Personally I believe that speaks far louder than a mere 2.9% stake held by a small hedge fund.

Now credit where credits due Helikon have done exceptionally well on this short position fair play to them. But imho the risk/reward ratio at this current price with very little value at all placed on the company and the company still having a multi year cash runway - and still cutting costs - the risk is more weighted to the upside than any further substantial downside.

So, going back to Linde, ITM has the backing, and a partnership with, a global multinational leader in industrial gases, obviously including hydrogen.

Linde or Helikon, which should long term investors pay more attention to? Helikon have made their money on a heavy correction in the green energy arena. It’s done. Just crumbs left now.

The tables could, and likely will, turn on one significant piece of good news. Linde, on the other hand are long term partners and in it for the long term.

For me personally I, like Luca, an am heavily invested here. I have two tranches of shares in ITM in different accounts, both fairly equal amounts. Average price in the first is 36p and the second it’s 40p. So I’m marginally down but feeling pretty comfortable about th8ngs at this level.

Finally a correction to one of the serial negative posters comments. ITM is NOT absolutely NOT burning £6m per month. Either the person responsible for this error cannot do basic arithmetic or they are deliberately misleading investors. ITM’s most recent guidance is £32-£36 million loss for the current year which equates to an average monthly Cashburn of £2.6-£3m.

At the current rate of Cashburn it would take the company over FIVE years to use up their cash. That takes us all the way through to the end of 2029.