Member Info for DiamondGeazer

Hi Canetoad, thanks for the interesting feedback. I've committed myself for this year and will then assess the future, but by then will hopefully have a much better picture. But I am also aware that what you say about not investing in pre-production mining projects like Bluejay may well turn out to have been the much better course of action, and what Cigam and Drillspark say is so true for the Bluejay SP. I am very aware of the risk that without further news over the next two months, it will just drift further down (not helped by the poor IR). I have been invested for just over a year so far, and the time it took to do the first Dundas so-called FS... and now to redo it completely threw me because I expected the funding to have been done by the end of last year and the first concrete to be poured this summer... What persuaded me to stay for the longer term, rather than cutting and running, is solely waiting for the Enonkoski assays and Kubold drilling results, not so much Dundas... that is now more the fall-back position for me which will hopefully ensure the SP has some upside whatever else happens. My problem with trying to trade the share, is I am not very good at trading! GLA.

Thanks, Loggypunts. I said I would revert having checked with the company so just for info, I just tried calling on the number on the press release and it was answered by security. I asked to speak to either Toby B or Celeste von T, or anyone who could a take a message for them. The security lady kindly tried for over 5 mins to find someone to answer the phone and couldn't. So be it, it's a small company, but I was unable to confirm when the call is and will assume you are right about the 11th, and hopefully will get an email confirming this. Those who just read the press release and look to sign up on Monday for the call the next day, may sadly miss the call. ATB GLA!

Agreed, and if you look at the volumes, they seem reasonably small. I got in here at around 11p so am down a bit but am happy to hold for the LT. There seem to be four bits of news we will get this year that I am interested in.
1. The assay results from Enonkoski; I note that Bluejay haven't exactly been talking about these much, which could be that they haven't received them, or they aren't very exciting... if I had to completely guess I would guess that they may be middle ground - okay but not exciting or big enough for Rio to pursue, but we shall see. If the results are very good, Rio would surely just buy the whole company!
2. The start of the Kubold / Bluejay drilling campaign - should whip up some short-term interest; this drilling campaign could be huge.
3. The results of the Kubold / Bluejay drilling campaign... if the backlog in the assay labs continues, maybe that will be late November but I would be surprised if they start finding something very exciting in the cores if they didn't start chattering about it, and finally,
4. The (hopefully improved) FS and hopefully funding of Dundas at the very end of the year.
My downside is if Bluejay just turns out to be Dundas starting production in, lets say, 2024, then in two years the share may be around 15p-25p, not great over two years but even if it still ends up, it may still go down first until we hear it is happening/we build the mine. My upside is that the drill results from Enonkoski are better than expected and/or the Kubold/Bluejay drilling find the motherlode of Ni... in two years...£3+! That's why I'm reasonably happy, though their comms need a lot of improvement. Am I missing anything... would be interested in other views?! GLA and DYOR!

Many thanks, I haven't received an email yet but unless someone else says they have already done so, I will call the company this afternoon and revert, just to check.

Hi Xenor, you mention that the investor conference has been brought forward. I've just registered and the Zoom link to register indeed says the call is now happening on the 11th April @ 2pm our time, but the press release with the link on it still says it is happening on 12th April @ 2pm. I assume someone has accidentally typed in the wrong date, and since the press release, at least, will have been checked by senior management, I'm going with that. Anyone with an existing direct link to the company able to ask?

Thanks DJ. I agree that the gold streaming deal wasn't great, except for Elemental, but aren't I right in saying that we still get 20% of the market value of each ounce we deliver so at least its not a total freebie?

Agreed Analytical, and 12th April growing in importance, but Xenor makes a very good point; this is not the time to revert to publishing qtrly production numbers; to rebuild confidence, we would all benefit from monthly reporting of (hopefully consistently rising) Cu production for the next 3 months, or even with good gold assay results...etc, the new uncertainty over hitting targets, merited or not, may well hang over the share until at least early July, when the story should still good, albeit somewhat delayed.

SeisNav, I agree with everything you say, and that is why I have ARC as the second biggest holding in my pension fund... but the market obviously doesn't or the share price would be higher. Wouldn't you agree with that?

Put who on filter? I have no interest in supressing the SP, and I love hearing talk of it going to 20p, but am desperately frustrated that after nearly two years in the stock the share price is below where I bought it, when almost everything else has gone up, Cu is at record levels...etc. I think you are seeing anything you don't completely agree with as a conspiracy, when to my knowledge, none exists. Maybe ask yourself a simple question. Why is the share price so low? I think the BoD hasn't delivered much and until they do a deal, investors don't trust them. Certainly mining analysts (and I know a few) I've asked (without giving my opinion) aren't overly impressed. I would be very surprised if investors are put off buying a share because of comments from the people you call trolls.... I think if you think that is the reason, you are very naïve. I obviously think that most investors are more intelligent than you do. You have a different opinion - fine that's your right... but have you ever thought that maybe everyone else isn't always wrong.

Apologies..., but what does that mean?

and what might it do with a low ball deal of lets say USD5m and 50% for USD20m drilling?

Many thanks both Fulmar and Kullybahia. I could not be more pleased if the share price went to 20p. It seems clear then that with the current share price, the market doesn't think that a deal is going to happen. The upside limit for me is that at 20p, the market cap will be over USD200m, and when I compare that to a company like Bluejay - mkt cap USD100m, with multiple properties which will have an ilmenite mine in 2 years and has J/V drilling programmes with both Rio (awaiting assays), and Kubold (Gates, Bezos...etc - drilling programme starting this year), I think that may be a stretch... but I suppose that depends on the deal Arc gets. so let me ask it a different way. From what NvS has implied about what a major has to do to get a JV, everything points to us getting a lump sum of cash, which very few earn-ins with majors get. That a difference. And looking again at Bluejay, if I average out their JVs, they are giving away 50%+ of each property for USD15m to USD20m drilling commitment (over a number of years). so if I could look in the crystal ball (and its a complete guess) and say we will get USD5m to USD10m cash into Arc, and give away 75% in return for a huge and fast drilling commitment of lets say, USD50m to USD75m, what do you both think the SP will do. Taking all the plusses about location...etc, Is that, in your view good enough to hit 20p? I know its only guesswork and who knows what will happen, but I would enjoy hearing your opinion!!!

Hi Fulmar; great article thanks! What I find intriguing is, that if we get a great deal (let's assume a big USD drilling commitment and some millions of cash for ARC) what do you think will happen with the SP, because so many may have signed up to doing a deal with AAL (or another) and selling on the news, and may want to exit, but AAL (or the others) aren't doing this for a laugh - they must believe in this or they wouldn't be doing it...

Great post! whether it takes us one week or one year to reach 40p... or £1, it will happen when the market wants it to happen!

Why is it that when someone raises what they believe is a legitimate concern... and the share price performance over the last year would seem to suggest it would be reasonable for many investors to have those concerns, your only fall back position is to be insulting. I'm not Ella or OOL or whoever you fantasise about. I don't agree with what most of them say, and many people may not agree with my opinion, but they are just that... opinions, and different opinions are what makes market. I may not be right in my concerns... but shock horror! you might not be right either, they are just our opinions. I think the BoD have been terrible in their comms, and I'm not sure why you go overboard and say we should read what you wrote and then be quiet... when that seems to be a reasonably widely held view. I can only assume you work for the company.
Do I think NvS is up to it? I knew him quite well some time ago and I still have occasional contact so I speak from experience. Is he cunning... Yes. Is he pretty ruthless?... Yes. Do I think the comms are bad.... Yes. But is he the right for this job? Yes absolutely the right man for the job - we need what he brings to the table when negotiating with the big guns; he's uniquely qualified on what Arc needs. But it doesn't mean I am not worried because of what I see about the way the BoD communicates. I am constantly worried and your aggressive posts don't allay that concern.

Hi Seisnav. Thank you very much for the very detailed analysis of where we stand and I think/hope you are right. Let me reiterate that - your view is hugely appreciated. My point is this... why am I hearing an excellent synopsis of where we are only from you on a BB... but nothing like this ever from the BoD...,? Where is a simple company presentation saying these things? Where is an update on the aeromag survey, the results of which were meant to be available three weeks ago, even if its just to tell us investors that they have been completed and are being shared with interested parties... at least then we would know they have been received? That's my issue. Do I believe they will do a FAB deal. Yes, because there does not seem to be any plan B so there has to be a deal of some sort... and if I didn't believe it I wouldn't still be here. But I believe that based on current and passed experience, if something goes wrong, the BoD will not keep us informed.

Sorry Meercat... I have 3.5 million shares which is a big holding for me.

Completely agreed Meercats. we all hope the BoD is doing something to move us forward, but its the communication that is worst. It always seems that shareholders are the last to know anything; and I completely understand that in mining, especially investing in Aim stocks, there are risks - that goes with the territory. But its everything from the disappearance of the FS due by June last year, with no explanation until very recently, to MM has no case and we there is nothing to settle... followed by a settlement; to Casa not paying up but we are only told after the event. The BoD may have perfectly good reasons for all of this, but it's too like the old days where investors were there to be told only when it is suited the BoD, rather than being treated as fellow owners, which we are, and being kept informed as anyone who's got their own money at stake wants to be - the result from my side is that however good any deal is, I have a lack of trust. A good deal with a major will be great, but it doesn't change the communications problem.

Quite right Analytical... I missed that chart! Thanks, but it also brings to mind a different question, which is, how often do people have time to read the detail in any 43-101 because they are so long!

Hi Analytical, interestingly have just found a 43-101 feasibility study for the Kutcho Copper Project in British Columbia which plans for 4,500tpd Ore sorter (2 x XRT Tomra - one fine, one coarse) with 560t being rejected - the ore sorter reject material to be used for underground backfill. If you include the capacity for a further 2,000tpd plant, I am assuming that 4,000 tpd won't be too far off what we are looking for. They include the capex for the two XRT sorters (sorters and reject storage bin) in the number for the crushing circuit, but I assume you have to have the the crushing capability, so we would need that too. Anyway capex C$17.3m. page 376, https://minedocs.com/22/Kutcho-FS-11082021.pdf. Hope that is useful.