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I'm sure it was just a slip, but move the decimal one place to the right and 1.6p becomes 16p, which is much more preferable.
SeisNav, thank you for the detail, that's extraordinarily interesting...and positive.
Hi Analytical, its my understanding that RMM have substantial tax losses carried forward from precious years, so any cashflow tax-related benefit from any new tax credits will only apply some distance into the future. Is that your understanding as well, which is not to say this isn't yet more positive news - it is. Obviously not having to pay tax on profits is always a good thing.
Hi all, this has been one of the more constructive BBs and some of the discussion pretty high class (and you will all know that there are some pretty dreadful ones), so very disappointing that a long-term holder like MB who has posted a lot of factual info in the past isn't able to express concerns without being aggressively accused of having other motives. I doubt the SP moves on what is said here anyway. He may be wrong... I was certainly wrong about the SP being 60p by the end of April, but when this BB is used for discussion about RMM its great. Please don't completely devalue this BB by turning it into one giant conspiracy plot. ATB. DYOR.
Hi ElProfessor, just a thought on your comment. In my experience, a Risk Register, which almost every company has, needs to be signed off by the Board. Given the urgent need to focus on so many other things recently, I would not be surprised if they hadn't yet approved one... and while such a register is obviously a very good thing, hopefully TB has a very good idea of the major current risks, but can't just publicly state them since they are his own. For me, I would have like to have seen costs, but reading some of the very logical comments below, it makes complete sense for the new CFO to get comfortable with those numbers first (hopefully no shocks!), especially since the production profile going forward is so different to before. I only saw the end of the call, and for me, TB doesn't come across as a natural salesman, which often means he's says it like he sees it, which I much prefer to some of the snake oil salesmen on AiM! Just my opinion. Onwards and upwards. ATB.
Thanks for the advice... but probably too late to sell for me at these levels. Zero trust in management. Had hoped the failure to do anything with Dundas last year was a one-off. Obviously not. Maybe they forgot to book any drill rigs and found there were none available... whatever the reason... "once" can be an aberration, "twice" is a trend. Utterly useless BoD and to those of you who warned about them, thanks; I should have listened more carefully, but I didn't believe anyone could be this incompetent.
Hi Canetoad, thanks for the interesting feedback. I've committed myself for this year and will then assess the future, but by then will hopefully have a much better picture. But I am also aware that what you say about not investing in pre-production mining projects like Bluejay may well turn out to have been the much better course of action, and what Cigam and Drillspark say is so true for the Bluejay SP. I am very aware of the risk that without further news over the next two months, it will just drift further down (not helped by the poor IR). I have been invested for just over a year so far, and the time it took to do the first Dundas so-called FS... and now to redo it completely threw me because I expected the funding to have been done by the end of last year and the first concrete to be poured this summer... What persuaded me to stay for the longer term, rather than cutting and running, is solely waiting for the Enonkoski assays and Kubold drilling results, not so much Dundas... that is now more the fall-back position for me which will hopefully ensure the SP has some upside whatever else happens. My problem with trying to trade the share, is I am not very good at trading! GLA.
Thanks, Loggypunts. I said I would revert having checked with the company so just for info, I just tried calling on the number on the press release and it was answered by security. I asked to speak to either Toby B or Celeste von T, or anyone who could a take a message for them. The security lady kindly tried for over 5 mins to find someone to answer the phone and couldn't. So be it, it's a small company, but I was unable to confirm when the call is and will assume you are right about the 11th, and hopefully will get an email confirming this. Those who just read the press release and look to sign up on Monday for the call the next day, may sadly miss the call. ATB GLA!
Agreed, and if you look at the volumes, they seem reasonably small. I got in here at around 11p so am down a bit but am happy to hold for the LT. There seem to be four bits of news we will get this year that I am interested in.
1. The assay results from Enonkoski; I note that Bluejay haven't exactly been talking about these much, which could be that they haven't received them, or they aren't very exciting... if I had to completely guess I would guess that they may be middle ground - okay but not exciting or big enough for Rio to pursue, but we shall see. If the results are very good, Rio would surely just buy the whole company!
2. The start of the Kubold / Bluejay drilling campaign - should whip up some short-term interest; this drilling campaign could be huge.
3. The results of the Kubold / Bluejay drilling campaign... if the backlog in the assay labs continues, maybe that will be late November but I would be surprised if they start finding something very exciting in the cores if they didn't start chattering about it, and finally,
4. The (hopefully improved) FS and hopefully funding of Dundas at the very end of the year.
My downside is if Bluejay just turns out to be Dundas starting production in, lets say, 2024, then in two years the share may be around 15p-25p, not great over two years but even if it still ends up, it may still go down first until we hear it is happening/we build the mine. My upside is that the drill results from Enonkoski are better than expected and/or the Kubold/Bluejay drilling find the motherlode of Ni... in two years...£3+! That's why I'm reasonably happy, though their comms need a lot of improvement. Am I missing anything... would be interested in other views?! GLA and DYOR!
Many thanks, I haven't received an email yet but unless someone else says they have already done so, I will call the company this afternoon and revert, just to check.
Hi Xenor, you mention that the investor conference has been brought forward. I've just registered and the Zoom link to register indeed says the call is now happening on the 11th April @ 2pm our time, but the press release with the link on it still says it is happening on 12th April @ 2pm. I assume someone has accidentally typed in the wrong date, and since the press release, at least, will have been checked by senior management, I'm going with that. Anyone with an existing direct link to the company able to ask?
Thanks DJ. I agree that the gold streaming deal wasn't great, except for Elemental, but aren't I right in saying that we still get 20% of the market value of each ounce we deliver so at least its not a total freebie?
Agreed Analytical, and 12th April growing in importance, but Xenor makes a very good point; this is not the time to revert to publishing qtrly production numbers; to rebuild confidence, we would all benefit from monthly reporting of (hopefully consistently rising) Cu production for the next 3 months, or even with good gold assay results...etc, the new uncertainty over hitting targets, merited or not, may well hang over the share until at least early July, when the story should still good, albeit somewhat delayed.
SeisNav, I agree with everything you say, and that is why I have ARC as the second biggest holding in my pension fund... but the market obviously doesn't or the share price would be higher. Wouldn't you agree with that?
Put who on filter? I have no interest in supressing the SP, and I love hearing talk of it going to 20p, but am desperately frustrated that after nearly two years in the stock the share price is below where I bought it, when almost everything else has gone up, Cu is at record levels...etc. I think you are seeing anything you don't completely agree with as a conspiracy, when to my knowledge, none exists. Maybe ask yourself a simple question. Why is the share price so low? I think the BoD hasn't delivered much and until they do a deal, investors don't trust them. Certainly mining analysts (and I know a few) I've asked (without giving my opinion) aren't overly impressed. I would be very surprised if investors are put off buying a share because of comments from the people you call trolls.... I think if you think that is the reason, you are very naïve. I obviously think that most investors are more intelligent than you do. You have a different opinion - fine that's your right... but have you ever thought that maybe everyone else isn't always wrong.
Apologies..., but what does that mean?
and what might it do with a low ball deal of lets say USD5m and 50% for USD20m drilling?
Many thanks both Fulmar and Kullybahia. I could not be more pleased if the share price went to 20p. It seems clear then that with the current share price, the market doesn't think that a deal is going to happen. The upside limit for me is that at 20p, the market cap will be over USD200m, and when I compare that to a company like Bluejay - mkt cap USD100m, with multiple properties which will have an ilmenite mine in 2 years and has J/V drilling programmes with both Rio (awaiting assays), and Kubold (Gates, Bezos...etc - drilling programme starting this year), I think that may be a stretch... but I suppose that depends on the deal Arc gets. so let me ask it a different way. From what NvS has implied about what a major has to do to get a JV, everything points to us getting a lump sum of cash, which very few earn-ins with majors get. That a difference. And looking again at Bluejay, if I average out their JVs, they are giving away 50%+ of each property for USD15m to USD20m drilling commitment (over a number of years). so if I could look in the crystal ball (and its a complete guess) and say we will get USD5m to USD10m cash into Arc, and give away 75% in return for a huge and fast drilling commitment of lets say, USD50m to USD75m, what do you both think the SP will do. Taking all the plusses about location...etc, Is that, in your view good enough to hit 20p? I know its only guesswork and who knows what will happen, but I would enjoy hearing your opinion!!!
Hi Fulmar; great article thanks! What I find intriguing is, that if we get a great deal (let's assume a big USD drilling commitment and some millions of cash for ARC) what do you think will happen with the SP, because so many may have signed up to doing a deal with AAL (or another) and selling on the news, and may want to exit, but AAL (or the others) aren't doing this for a laugh - they must believe in this or they wouldn't be doing it...
Great post! whether it takes us one week or one year to reach 40p... or £1, it will happen when the market wants it to happen!