Member Info for DiamondGeazer

Thanks Aggr0 and Gbavt. very helpful

Slightly different topic, but would appreciate some insight;, can anyone with expertise share their thoughts on the following timing; once you get a drill rig onsite, how long is it likely to take to drill each 500m hole, and how long after that would one expect an assay result? Are we likely talking weeks or months? Many thanks. Good luck all LTHs!

Just to say thank you to all those who are posting information and links about the Indaba. Extremely helpful.

I have definitely been proved wrong in my guestimate that we would have an announcement yesterday to tie into the opening of the Indaba, so currently eating some humble pie! But that was not why I hold Arc. The story I still believe in hasn't changed; that without our own drilling programme, and from everything the Company has said publicly, we are on the verge of a JV deal with a major and I think it will be very very attractive... just a question of waiting! GLA and DYOR.

I'm glad at least you broke even. Hope your next investment works better, but complete respect for your openness. ATB.

Just to mention that if my calculations are correct, its now 11:22am in Newfoundland. Rightly or wrongly that leads me to guess that the news not yet released is ether very good or the opposite! Hope its the former, because while we all understand that teething problems happen, what we absolutely don't want is a badly communicated one. Come on Ramblers! GLA. DYOR.

Happy birthday tomorrow Fulmar! And btw, I don't know who told you we are stubborn? Taureans aren't stubborn... its just that our way is better than everybody else's!

I thought I was already so overweight Arc in my pension that it would be madness to buy a single share more... but I've had to buy a tiny bit more, because I couldn't resist it... and its my birthday present to myself! Come on Arc! GLA.

Thanks MB and apologies; I didn't click who TS was, but now I do. Makes complete sense!

Fulmar, I assume this (SP -5%) is what you mean by the MMs playing silly buggers?

Hopefully this should be the start of a big week for us, although the market doesn't seem convinced anything is going to happen. The only negative for me was that article in the FT suggesting Zambia needs to provide more certainty on tax rates to attract the big miners, but I can't stop reminding myself what NvS said in that February investor call, twinned with (what seems to be) the fact that we don't seem to have our own drilling programme when if we didn't have a deal, we absolutely should have one. We are now ten weeks after NvS said we had a very attractive deal on the table, and my money is still on a FAB JV to be announced soonest, and I hope I'm right! This is not investment advice, and GLA!

Very surprised we don't already have the production update on the same date this month (5th) as the last monthly production report. Investors like predictability, and one can only assume there is a reason we are not party to for the delay. If they are waiting for the Cape Town conference, that would be naïve; 1. they should release price sensitive info timeously, (and they will definitely have that information) and not sit on it to try to be clever, and 2, the investors they are meeting in Cape Town will most likely be too busy to see a Monday announcement. If they are waiting so they can release a mine plan with it, great in theory, but they still could have done the production report first and then published the mine plan. I still believe hugely in RMM long-term, but these small things are also very important in building trust with investors - if we don't get the report this pm, then I will be seriously concerned, if we do, then okay.

Thats a very fair point!

Thanks Fulmar, I believe that despite the quality of reporting not always being what it used to be, the London Financial Times still carries a lot of weight with governments... and I note the article is written not be a journalist, but by Peter Leon, a very well known and very respected South African lawyer, and probably one of the top mining lawyers in the world...

Very good post Fulmar, already being proved true. I'll say one thing for the MMs... to do what they do, they must have balls of steel!

And of course Plface you must do what you see as the best value investing. But just for interest, to summarise why some of us are very positive; we that NvS won't accept a JV deal which doesn't also reward Arc shareholders; we know that in February there was what NvS classed as a very good deal already on the table; we know from NvS that had we not had the legal problems, that deal would have almost certainly have been already closed; we know that if there was no deal, we should already have planned, and probably be implementing our own drill campaign (which it doesn't seem we are); we know we are sitting on a fantastic address; we know Zambia wants new mining investment; we know the new CEO of AAL who recently was in charge of Cu is speaking at the Indaba next week after the President of Zambia... all the stars seem to be aligned. I came into this share a long time ago to trade out on a deal. Now I think its different; if NvS has done the deal many of us think he has (and given he has turned them down in the past, its highly likely), given the copper market; best guess AAL (or whoever the major is) start drilling very fast, this is more and more looking like a longer term hold to get the really big returns. Could I be wrong? Of course, especially on the date (the Indaba), but on a risk reward basis, I think the balance is very much in our favour. But we're not going to get a threebagger by lunchtime, so good luck on your other investment.

Agreed SeisNav, and if our speculation that this is all linked to a potential surprise launch at the Indaba holds any water, then you can see why we wouldn't have got a mention today... would spoil the surprise. Whether or not we are right, I have been quite surprised by the weight of selling (a relative term admittedly) that seems to be happening most mornings; with everything NvS said on the investor call, and we haven't planned our own drilling campaign, I don't know why anyone would want to risk missing the upside unless they know something we don't know... and while there has always been an outside risk things don't complete, I can't think what else that's negative could come out in the next few weeks, so I'm not too worried!

Thanks for doing the hard yards on that... great to hear. I've just listened to some of it, don't you think he comes across as very believable and impressive?

Apropos1, if its any help I have pencilled in profits of USD20m this year based on revenue of USD65m, FCF USD8-12m, but I don't think we should be valued on this year's PE or FCF, and also these are back-of-the-envelope numbers because I am all at sea when it comes to costs - I simply don't know what to put in given the variables. StrummerJones and FreetheCaterham7 made the important points; the market needs to see profitability. The question is how do we get visibility on that? If we get any cost guidance next week, that will be hugely helpful, but I suspect we won't. Without it, at best we may only be given info on profitability for the first time in the commentary around the H1 figures, which presumably is end August. For what its worth, I would be unpleasantly surprised if we ever see the SP here again after April production numbers next week (assuming they are where Cornishknocker sees them as) backed by new interest from investors at the Indaba and PDAC, then hopefully SP pushes up a bit more with May, June and Q2 total figures. But H1 figures won't really mean much because of Q1, so the H1 results (in August) will be about what's the cash on the balance sheet to show that we have actually generated some; guidance on costs (and a new mine plane?). Personally, what I am desperate for the new mine plan (I know we are doing a 43-101 but that won't be out for a long time). Net net, while I would love the SP to rocket up now, I would okay to be only 40p+ by the end of June, because I think we need 2 x full Qtrs of strong production and rising grades to get the motor under it. My guess is the big rerate comes in Q4, when we have proof of concept and are all talking about 2023 numbers. Next year (and assuming the ore sorter comes online) I have pencilled in USD50m profit and USD40m of FCF. While my hopes are far too optimistic, I wouldn't be completely unhappy with (all things being equal) a share price of 60-100p by the end of this year and 140-200p by the end of 2023. Of course I may be wrong on every single assumption and this is not to taken as investment advice - DYOR... But I am very positive LT, though I suspect we may have to deal with other teething problems short-term, which is part and parcel of ramping up production. ATB.

Thanks.

Hi CornishKnocker, thanks, that's extremely helpful; I believe they should be profitable at those production numbers, but I can't work out if they will also be cashflow positive. I don't have a handle on up-to-date costs and would be very interested to hear your expert thoughts. No problem if not.

Assuming you mean the Cape Tow Indaba, it kicks off at 8.45am local time (LT)Monday 9th May (that's 7:45 UK time). President H.E. Hakainde Hichilema speaking "A New Dawn for Zambia’s Mining Sector" at 9:20am LT and AAL CEO Duncan Wanblad talking on "The Power of Mining: An Industry at the Heart of Enabling a New and Inclusive Economy" at 10:30am LT.