The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
G_G_G, I completely agree, and given the 9th (when they released the last two monthly set of numbers) is Saturday, we may have to wait until late Friday or even next Monday. Maybe I am missing something, but it seems to take RMM a long-time to tally up the tonnes produced in one month... not least given that in April they released the figures for March on the 5th April. That creates a problem slightly (even if not intentionally) of the company's own making. Now if they release the production figures earlier, and they are good, you could be forgiven for thinking that when they have good things to say they rush them out... and vice versa.. not ideal. Unless I misread the director purchases, this is going to be a bumper month (I'm now thinking under 650t is very bad, plus 700t is very good), and it needs to be good to get investors to believe that the 7,000t guidance will be met... as the average monthly production required creeps ever higher. I'm a LTH but still don't see a rerate until we have production +700t for 2/3 months AND visibility on total costs going forward - everything we currently know about costs is either hearsay, taken from general management commentary or based on historic numbers; the company now has a higher No of employees and much higher fuel costs. Certainty in this market is very important.
Hi all, if AA use the full 90 days we have a maximum 37 days left until the signing. I would like to think they would complete the DD quicker, but who knows with a company of their size. Hopefully we also then get details of the drill programme, but I suspect we will have to wait until the signing of the JV agreements for those, which as we know also allows for a further "up to an additional 90 days"... if they use that time in full, the first drilling will actually happen in early November, but would love to be proved wrong. Who'd have thought 12 months ago that we would be in this position today and the SP would only be 3.3p!
Joycopter, I wasn't able to open the version you posted which seemed to be a podcast, but I think this is the written version - apologies if they are exactly the same.
Mineral rush: How Chile's mega mines are critical to our electric future | Climate News | Sky News
https://news.sky.com/story/mineral-rush-how-chiles-mega-mines-are-critical-to-our-electric-future-12643616
Thought you might all be interested in this re the amount of Cu needed to meet Green targets, but also the impact mining is already having. https://news.sky.com/story/mineral-rush-how-chiles-mega-mines-are-critical-to-our-electric-future-12643616
Hi the manxmarty, I am in Arc, Rambler Metals & Mining and Bluejay Mining. Rambler has has more promises missed and disappointments than you can shake a stick at, but is now a producing Cu mine with a mkt cap of only £35m - its share price is now 21p, down from £1.50 two years ago... (and around £32 in 2014 so a 99.35% fall since 2014!) and whilst there has been an enormous amount of dilution, hopefully it will hit its production target of 7000 tones Cu this year - which would make it a major turnaround story by a good management team... assuming no further disappointments. Bluejay has what should have already been a producing Ilmenite mine in Greenland and some fantastic exploration properties in Greenland and Finland, including J/V's with Rio and Kobold (Bill Gates...etc)... but amongst the worst management/BoD I have come across, from both a delivery and communication point of view... and given this is Aim, that's setting a very low bar.... but the geography is about as prospective as you can find.
Hope you are right... that would be extremely positive. and btw my comments are about timing, not the quality of the deal which remains excellent.
Quite right, you didn't make the comment about being in a rush, it was Ant1986, and I got the wording wrong.. Ant1986 said "Nick said "we're in a hurry".. not a rush. apologies for the small slip up.
Hi Teaye70, I looked for other examples where Anglo American had done a joint venture with a junior and how early they were able to sign the deal within the stated time period. I found a deal they did with Lumina Gold in 2018 (which was spun out to become Luminex Resources), a deal which is remarkably similar to ours.
26th March 2018: Lumina Gold signed a Letter of Intent with AAL to negotiate and complete a binding JV Agreement (project in Ecuador) …”over the following five months….subject to customary conditions for a transaction of this nature, including Anglo American being satisfied with its due diligence of the Properties within three months of the date of the LOI”.
Mid-year: Lumina Gold span out the projects into Luminex Resources.
24th September 2018: Luminex Resources announced the Signing of a Binding Earn-in Agreement with Anglo American…. (i.e. exactly five months later almost to the day).
So based on that (and I would happily be proved wrong) I don’t think we should be surprised if this doesn’t get signed until the full 90 days is up. If so, I think the comment “we’re in a rush” may not accurately describe the reality of doing business with a major.
... maybe its just with the benefit of hindsight, but next time copper hits USD10,500/t (making the assumption that it does), maybe we should be hedging at least 1/3rd of production going forward?
Thanks Ortus, I didn't realise you could drill in the wet season.
Longer term we will get our rewards, so when the DD is completed shouldn't make much difference... the only negative is that the longer it takes to be signed, the less drilling time we have this season, but so be it. But out of interest, TheManx and Fulmar and others, are you expecting the DD to be signed ahead of the end of the 90 day period, or AAL, because they are a big company and aren't in a rush, will only signed as it at the end of the period?
I not exactly a fan of this management team, and my guess as to what happened at Dundas was the management, whose expertise is solely as geologists, didn't know what they were doing when it came to putting together a PFS for the project, and probably messed it up.... and the new guy took one look at it, tore it u and started again... hence the appalling delay.
But credit where credit is due, a good RNS about another project to add to Dundas and Kubold, even if the drilling isn't until next year. What has happened to the Enonkoski JV with Rio is anyone's guess... pretty extraordinary we haven't heard anything more about it, but that seems to be par for the course. The problem is any RNS except developing/funding Dundas, or Kubold finding something interesting is pretty irrelevant because they have completely lost the trust of investors through past errors.
Just thought it worth mentioning that while copper is down about 15% from its early March high, historically a strong dollar equates to weak commodities prices and vice versa, that GBP is down by almost 9% against the USD over the same period. Now of course our margins get impacted by the weak Cu price, but as with our SP, investors will rate us against GBP profits which benefit when translated from a strong USD , so there is at least some upside to offset against this CU price weakness. ATB Ramblers!
Hi Xenor and Caseyjones, I largely agree with you, but repeat what I believe is key... that until we know actual cost figures, and therefore if we are genuinely both profitable and cashflow positive, we won't get a re-rate. I suspect management doesn't want to give us any info on costs until the production profile proves both these points... so we may have to wait some time for that. I'm here for the long haul, but the overall market is so different to how it looked a year ago, I am not surprised we haven't yet seen any SP performance. Come on all you Ramblers!
SeisNav, extraordinarily helpful. thanks for sharing.
Hi Seisnav, would you please mind putting the last sentence first when you next write a comment like that! You are one of the informed stalwarts on this BB, and I opened the chats and read yours first... to see you had sold out... I almost had a heart attack until that last sentence!
Hi BSG, I think Fulmar makes an excellent point... if we are still waiting in the seventh year to find anything, I think we will all be more than disappointed! AAL will target the most exciting, prospective areas soonest, and I think we all believe that they really know what they are doing... Look, if its not there, its not there but if it is they'll surely find it much sooner... though I hope they are still drilling in year 7 because they should be looking for tier 1 deposit No 2!
I hardly ever look at this BB because of the level of vitriol, so if someone has posted this already, many apologies, but did anyone see or comment on the launch of the first Ammonia fuelled tractor by Amogy Inc, a US company, a few days ago...I think AFC Energy need to get their skates on... https://stockhead.com.au/energy/asx-renewable-energy-stocks-brooklyn-start-up-tests-world-first-ammonia-powered-john-deere-tractor/
Great presentation, just one small but important point; the reason I (and others I believe ) keep banging on about knowing the operating costs is the first word in a line on the summary page of this June presentation "Building towards cash positive operations including sustainable capital". Of course everything is going in the right direction and very pleased about that, but given our cash position, I am keen to know at what level of production we do actually turn FCF positive. ATB and hold in there fellow Ramblers!
I agree with pretty much everyone. and the very good news is that in the short-term, releasing that commentary yesterday, we re already 1/3rd of the way through June's production so they must know everything is running smoothly when they put the RNS out. For a proper re-rate, I think we need;
- at least consecutive 3 months of at or near 700 tonnes at a grade nearer 2%
- confirmation of operating cost numbers to show how profitable we are
- specific details on cost, installation and timing of ore sorter
- publication of NI 43-101
Likely in that order. and I definitely agree with Bedhead... no sudden surge in SP and then a dump please... just a steadily rising SP over the next few months!