Member Info for DiamondGeazer

Quite right, you didn't make the comment about being in a rush, it was Ant1986, and I got the wording wrong.. Ant1986 said "Nick said "we're in a hurry".. not a rush. apologies for the small slip up.

Hi Teaye70, I looked for other examples where Anglo American had done a joint venture with a junior and how early they were able to sign the deal within the stated time period. I found a deal they did with Lumina Gold in 2018 (which was spun out to become Luminex Resources), a deal which is remarkably similar to ours.

26th March 2018: Lumina Gold signed a Letter of Intent with AAL to negotiate and complete a binding JV Agreement (project in Ecuador) …”over the following five months….subject to customary conditions for a transaction of this nature, including Anglo American being satisfied with its due diligence of the Properties within three months of the date of the LOI”.

Mid-year: Lumina Gold span out the projects into Luminex Resources.

24th September 2018: Luminex Resources announced the Signing of a Binding Earn-in Agreement with Anglo American…. (i.e. exactly five months later almost to the day).

So based on that (and I would happily be proved wrong) I don’t think we should be surprised if this doesn’t get signed until the full 90 days is up. If so, I think the comment “we’re in a rush” may not accurately describe the reality of doing business with a major.

... maybe its just with the benefit of hindsight, but next time copper hits USD10,500/t (making the assumption that it does), maybe we should be hedging at least 1/3rd of production going forward?

Thanks Ortus, I didn't realise you could drill in the wet season.

Longer term we will get our rewards, so when the DD is completed shouldn't make much difference... the only negative is that the longer it takes to be signed, the less drilling time we have this season, but so be it. But out of interest, TheManx and Fulmar and others, are you expecting the DD to be signed ahead of the end of the 90 day period, or AAL, because they are a big company and aren't in a rush, will only signed as it at the end of the period?

I not exactly a fan of this management team, and my guess as to what happened at Dundas was the management, whose expertise is solely as geologists, didn't know what they were doing when it came to putting together a PFS for the project, and probably messed it up.... and the new guy took one look at it, tore it u and started again... hence the appalling delay.

But credit where credit is due, a good RNS about another project to add to Dundas and Kubold, even if the drilling isn't until next year. What has happened to the Enonkoski JV with Rio is anyone's guess... pretty extraordinary we haven't heard anything more about it, but that seems to be par for the course. The problem is any RNS except developing/funding Dundas, or Kubold finding something interesting is pretty irrelevant because they have completely lost the trust of investors through past errors.

Just thought it worth mentioning that while copper is down about 15% from its early March high, historically a strong dollar equates to weak commodities prices and vice versa, that GBP is down by almost 9% against the USD over the same period. Now of course our margins get impacted by the weak Cu price, but as with our SP, investors will rate us against GBP profits which benefit when translated from a strong USD , so there is at least some upside to offset against this CU price weakness. ATB Ramblers!

Hi Xenor and Caseyjones, I largely agree with you, but repeat what I believe is key... that until we know actual cost figures, and therefore if we are genuinely both profitable and cashflow positive, we won't get a re-rate. I suspect management doesn't want to give us any info on costs until the production profile proves both these points... so we may have to wait some time for that. I'm here for the long haul, but the overall market is so different to how it looked a year ago, I am not surprised we haven't yet seen any SP performance. Come on all you Ramblers!

SeisNav, extraordinarily helpful. thanks for sharing.

Hi Seisnav, would you please mind putting the last sentence first when you next write a comment like that! You are one of the informed stalwarts on this BB, and I opened the chats and read yours first... to see you had sold out... I almost had a heart attack until that last sentence!

Hi BSG, I think Fulmar makes an excellent point... if we are still waiting in the seventh year to find anything, I think we will all be more than disappointed! AAL will target the most exciting, prospective areas soonest, and I think we all believe that they really know what they are doing... Look, if its not there, its not there but if it is they'll surely find it much sooner... though I hope they are still drilling in year 7 because they should be looking for tier 1 deposit No 2!

I hardly ever look at this BB because of the level of vitriol, so if someone has posted this already, many apologies, but did anyone see or comment on the launch of the first Ammonia fuelled tractor by Amogy Inc, a US company, a few days ago...I think AFC Energy need to get their skates on... https://stockhead.com.au/energy/asx-renewable-energy-stocks-brooklyn-start-up-tests-world-first-ammonia-powered-john-deere-tractor/

Great presentation, just one small but important point; the reason I (and others I believe ) keep banging on about knowing the operating costs is the first word in a line on the summary page of this June presentation "Building towards cash positive operations including sustainable capital". Of course everything is going in the right direction and very pleased about that, but given our cash position, I am keen to know at what level of production we do actually turn FCF positive. ATB and hold in there fellow Ramblers!

I agree with pretty much everyone. and the very good news is that in the short-term, releasing that commentary yesterday, we re already 1/3rd of the way through June's production so they must know everything is running smoothly when they put the RNS out. For a proper re-rate, I think we need;
- at least consecutive 3 months of at or near 700 tonnes at a grade nearer 2%
- confirmation of operating cost numbers to show how profitable we are
- specific details on cost, installation and timing of ore sorter
- publication of NI 43-101
Likely in that order. and I definitely agree with Bedhead... no sudden surge in SP and then a dump please... just a steadily rising SP over the next few months!

Hi Seisnav. I've been in for almost 2 years and am going to sit and wait because the asset is so good... and once the drilling starts, I think its just a matter of time before things go ballistic. But purely out of interest and based on your experience, what are you thinking/hoping for, for when drilling commences?

Hi Peggycilla911 and Caddy1, interesting posts. I would add that I think many investors (including me) thought from the way management suggested in the run up to the deal about how the "major" was keen to get on with the drilling, that having been in talks for so long time, there wouldn't be much DD left, and within a month drilling would have started... and now I think there may be a growing realisation that the DD may still take weeks if not another month or so, which means drilling may still be weeks, if not a couple of months away. Maybe its the challenge of the promotional nature of Aim mining stocks; its certainly true of this one.
So I'm now hoping the deal will be signed end June, but I woudn't be surprised if it isn't signed until late July/early August; its just the nature of the beast. Until we hear the deal is signed and more info about the timing of the drilling, I don't see the SP moving up much in this market.... Doesn't detract from the fact its an excellent deal, though here's a question I don't have the answer to... do you think the SP would be higher or lower than today, if rather than having a deal waiting to be signed with drilling probably starting Aug earliest (but with lumps of cash coming into Arc over the next few years), we have taken the deal last March with no cash coming into Arc but were now waiting for the assay results from lots of drilling H2 last year?! I suspect the former, but just for fun, would be interested to hear anyone's views.

Apologies, I didn't mean the Chairman... I don't think he's connected... Completely understand HSBC's position; the fund manager must be very worried about his position having invested in this. and oh yes, and is anyone suggesting that Sand Grove don't know more than all of us - to increase their position without better knowledge(since lets be honest, we've been told virtually nothing)??? Lets hope they kick some ass!

Hi all, maybe I'm missing it but the announcement seem to show Sand Grove exercising almost 6% of financial instruments to take their position to 15% from 9% equity and 6% financial instruments previously, but HSBC selling down from 5%+ to somewhere below 3%. Where is the straight swap? This looks to me like the Chairman who kmows what's going on, taking advantage of a weak share price to get a bigger stake. And let's be honest, this company has about as poor Comms as you will find on AIM, and that is saying something, but in their defence, that's also a reflection of their operational delivery... sorry... what operational delivery? Great asset... appalling management.

Hi themanxmarty. Personally I can't see how they could say anything about drilling ahead of the signing... but hopefully they will have (did someone say 10?) drill rigs already moving onsite ready to commence drilling in a matter of a couple of days after the signing.... since I assume they must have already contracted the drill rigs to specifically work there and they've had plenty of time and information (and been onsite I believe) to decide on where to drill. So I'm expecting an announcement that they've signed the JV and drilling to commence immediately... and some detail about that drilling, but think there may be a gap of one or two months after that before we have any indication of whether they've got some interesting core. Obviously I'd be very pleased to be proved wrong and get some results earlier.

Hi F29. For me, there will have been quite a few investors selling who originally bought in for a deal... any deal with Anglo during the exclusivity period last year... I know I did at the time, and others who bought at the end of last year when the SP was below 3p. I changed my mind when I realised how much the Anglo geologists believed in the potential of this resource; that they were that committed they would meet NvS's terms and the fact is that people who are now buying shares are much more likely to be like us... believing that there is at least one huge copper/cobalt deposit Anglo are going to drill into and then we will all get out just rewards! I'm expecting news any day that the DD is completed and drilling is starting, because the drilling season is upon us and we mustn't waste a day!