Hi Seisnav. I've been in for almost 2 years and am going to sit and wait because the asset is so good... and once the drilling starts, I think its just a matter of time before things go ballistic. But purely out of interest and based on your experience, what are you thinking/hoping for, for when drilling commences?
Hi Peggycilla911 and Caddy1, interesting posts. I would add that I think many investors (including me) thought from the way management suggested in the run up to the deal about how the "major" was keen to get on with the drilling, that having been in talks for so long time, there wouldn't be much DD left, and within a month drilling would have started... and now I think there may be a growing realisation that the DD may still take weeks if not another month or so, which means drilling may still be weeks, if not a couple of months away. Maybe its the challenge of the promotional nature of Aim mining stocks; its certainly true of this one.
So I'm now hoping the deal will be signed end June, but I woudn't be surprised if it isn't signed until late July/early August; its just the nature of the beast. Until we hear the deal is signed and more info about the timing of the drilling, I don't see the SP moving up much in this market.... Doesn't detract from the fact its an excellent deal, though here's a question I don't have the answer to... do you think the SP would be higher or lower than today, if rather than having a deal waiting to be signed with drilling probably starting Aug earliest (but with lumps of cash coming into Arc over the next few years), we have taken the deal last March with no cash coming into Arc but were now waiting for the assay results from lots of drilling H2 last year?! I suspect the former, but just for fun, would be interested to hear anyone's views.
Apologies, I didn't mean the Chairman... I don't think he's connected... Completely understand HSBC's position; the fund manager must be very worried about his position having invested in this. and oh yes, and is anyone suggesting that Sand Grove don't know more than all of us - to increase their position without better knowledge(since lets be honest, we've been told virtually nothing)??? Lets hope they kick some ass!
Hi all, maybe I'm missing it but the announcement seem to show Sand Grove exercising almost 6% of financial instruments to take their position to 15% from 9% equity and 6% financial instruments previously, but HSBC selling down from 5%+ to somewhere below 3%. Where is the straight swap? This looks to me like the Chairman who kmows what's going on, taking advantage of a weak share price to get a bigger stake. And let's be honest, this company has about as poor Comms as you will find on AIM, and that is saying something, but in their defence, that's also a reflection of their operational delivery... sorry... what operational delivery? Great asset... appalling management.
Hi themanxmarty. Personally I can't see how they could say anything about drilling ahead of the signing... but hopefully they will have (did someone say 10?) drill rigs already moving onsite ready to commence drilling in a matter of a couple of days after the signing.... since I assume they must have already contracted the drill rigs to specifically work there and they've had plenty of time and information (and been onsite I believe) to decide on where to drill. So I'm expecting an announcement that they've signed the JV and drilling to commence immediately... and some detail about that drilling, but think there may be a gap of one or two months after that before we have any indication of whether they've got some interesting core. Obviously I'd be very pleased to be proved wrong and get some results earlier.
Hi F29. For me, there will have been quite a few investors selling who originally bought in for a deal... any deal with Anglo during the exclusivity period last year... I know I did at the time, and others who bought at the end of last year when the SP was below 3p. I changed my mind when I realised how much the Anglo geologists believed in the potential of this resource; that they were that committed they would meet NvS's terms and the fact is that people who are now buying shares are much more likely to be like us... believing that there is at least one huge copper/cobalt deposit Anglo are going to drill into and then we will all get out just rewards! I'm expecting news any day that the DD is completed and drilling is starting, because the drilling season is upon us and we mustn't waste a day!
Thanks Aggr0 and Gbavt. very helpful
Slightly different topic, but would appreciate some insight;, can anyone with expertise share their thoughts on the following timing; once you get a drill rig onsite, how long is it likely to take to drill each 500m hole, and how long after that would one expect an assay result? Are we likely talking weeks or months? Many thanks. Good luck all LTHs!
Just to say thank you to all those who are posting information and links about the Indaba. Extremely helpful.
I have definitely been proved wrong in my guestimate that we would have an announcement yesterday to tie into the opening of the Indaba, so currently eating some humble pie! But that was not why I hold Arc. The story I still believe in hasn't changed; that without our own drilling programme, and from everything the Company has said publicly, we are on the verge of a JV deal with a major and I think it will be very very attractive... just a question of waiting! GLA and DYOR.
I'm glad at least you broke even. Hope your next investment works better, but complete respect for your openness. ATB.
Just to mention that if my calculations are correct, its now 11:22am in Newfoundland. Rightly or wrongly that leads me to guess that the news not yet released is ether very good or the opposite! Hope its the former, because while we all understand that teething problems happen, what we absolutely don't want is a badly communicated one. Come on Ramblers! GLA. DYOR.
Happy birthday tomorrow Fulmar! And btw, I don't know who told you we are stubborn? Taureans aren't stubborn... its just that our way is better than everybody else's!
I thought I was already so overweight Arc in my pension that it would be madness to buy a single share more... but I've had to buy a tiny bit more, because I couldn't resist it... and its my birthday present to myself! Come on Arc! GLA.
Thanks MB and apologies; I didn't click who TS was, but now I do. Makes complete sense!
Fulmar, I assume this (SP -5%) is what you mean by the MMs playing silly buggers?
Hopefully this should be the start of a big week for us, although the market doesn't seem convinced anything is going to happen. The only negative for me was that article in the FT suggesting Zambia needs to provide more certainty on tax rates to attract the big miners, but I can't stop reminding myself what NvS said in that February investor call, twinned with (what seems to be) the fact that we don't seem to have our own drilling programme when if we didn't have a deal, we absolutely should have one. We are now ten weeks after NvS said we had a very attractive deal on the table, and my money is still on a FAB JV to be announced soonest, and I hope I'm right! This is not investment advice, and GLA!
Very surprised we don't already have the production update on the same date this month (5th) as the last monthly production report. Investors like predictability, and one can only assume there is a reason we are not party to for the delay. If they are waiting for the Cape Town conference, that would be naïve; 1. they should release price sensitive info timeously, (and they will definitely have that information) and not sit on it to try to be clever, and 2, the investors they are meeting in Cape Town will most likely be too busy to see a Monday announcement. If they are waiting so they can release a mine plan with it, great in theory, but they still could have done the production report first and then published the mine plan. I still believe hugely in RMM long-term, but these small things are also very important in building trust with investors - if we don't get the report this pm, then I will be seriously concerned, if we do, then okay.
Thats a very fair point!
Thanks Fulmar, I believe that despite the quality of reporting not always being what it used to be, the London Financial Times still carries a lot of weight with governments... and I note the article is written not be a journalist, but by Peter Leon, a very well known and very respected South African lawyer, and probably one of the top mining lawyers in the world...
Very good post Fulmar, already being proved true. I'll say one thing for the MMs... to do what they do, they must have balls of steel!
And of course Plface you must do what you see as the best value investing. But just for interest, to summarise why some of us are very positive; we that NvS won't accept a JV deal which doesn't also reward Arc shareholders; we know that in February there was what NvS classed as a very good deal already on the table; we know from NvS that had we not had the legal problems, that deal would have almost certainly have been already closed; we know that if there was no deal, we should already have planned, and probably be implementing our own drill campaign (which it doesn't seem we are); we know we are sitting on a fantastic address; we know Zambia wants new mining investment; we know the new CEO of AAL who recently was in charge of Cu is speaking at the Indaba next week after the President of Zambia... all the stars seem to be aligned. I came into this share a long time ago to trade out on a deal. Now I think its different; if NvS has done the deal many of us think he has (and given he has turned them down in the past, its highly likely), given the copper market; best guess AAL (or whoever the major is) start drilling very fast, this is more and more looking like a longer term hold to get the really big returns. Could I be wrong? Of course, especially on the date (the Indaba), but on a risk reward basis, I think the balance is very much in our favour. But we're not going to get a threebagger by lunchtime, so good luck on your other investment.