Member Info for DiamondGeazer

MikeBWell, worth reading this article. Many feel this way long-term, even if we have some bumps early on the journey. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-14/copper-rout-masks-future-supply-crunch-that-imperils-green-goals?utm_content=markets&utm_source=twitter&cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-markets&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_medium=social

Agreed MikeBWell, March Cu was the all time high, and the long-term trend seems up for many reasons often mentioned on this BB, but it doesn't mean it won't fall in the ST in a recessionary environment.

Re RMM's SP: In Sept 2020, RMM's SP was +£1, back in 2017, it was over £2... but of course, not least with the endless dilutions...etc it is a totally different company now. Maybe when we look at our own losses we should put them in context and think of those who invested in mid 2008 when the SP was over £50. That would have been a real shocker.

I don't know the time scale, but I will be more than happy with the £2+ I believe we will hit sometime in the next 3 years. DYOR and good luck all Ramblers!

Wow? who'd have believed in Dec last year when we hit almost 41p that just over 6 months later, as we at last hit record production, our SP would be down 60%! Pretty horrendous to watch.

So many short-term negatives:
Real worries of recession
Bear market means all markets are down - and smaller companies get hit harder.
Cu down 35% since its March highs, and could slip lower in the ST.
We are a relatively high cost producer, with margins being squeezed.
We've only provided proof of 1 month of high volume production and (who's fault is irrelevant) have a track record of missing targets.
And now we won't get production info for 3 months so anyone who was looking to trade RMM short-term, or is in on margin, is now likely to be trying to get out of Dallas on a very fast horse.

For many of the reasons above I would be very surprised if we currently had much institutional interest, irrelevant of whether our story is good. In the usual "retreat to quality" most funds will now look to only invest in big companies in this type of market, and with no costs available until the H1 results, I don't think monthly numbers, even though they would be helpful to PIs, would make any difference to institutions.

So we have some huge headwinds.

But I'm going to have to just hunker down and ride out the storm. All my previous targets have been blown out of the water, but I can't ignore the long-term upside for Copper; that despite numerous SNUFUs, and while I don't yet trust their Comms, TB seems to run a very good Ops team and is now delivering; I am very much looking forward to both costings in the H1 results, and the economic model in the 43-101; excited about the Ore Sorter which hopefully is only 6 months away max... and I think the idea of a TSX listing could also be a game changer.

If the SP goes lower, and if CU falls further, it undoubtedly will... well in markets like these, sometimes sh*t happens, and while having built my position around 26.5p, I'm suffering quite a bit, but I'm simply refusing to leave. Some time in the next 3 years when Cu hits USD15,000t, all these problems, will be irrelevant.

Dalesman, there's an obvious logicality to a Canadian based Cu miner being TSX listing so well done for having forecast that, but I assume that they would then have a dual listing and still remain on AiM.

If you are an investor, there's a lot to be said for the detailed quarterly reporting you get on the TSX versus half yearly AiM reporting, but I would warn that if you are the company that has to do it, putting together the quarterly MD&A (and I've had to contribute to) is a complete nightmare!

But I think I am right in saying that most new listings would usually come with a capital event to create the necessary liquidity, so maybe TB's thinking that this is where he raises the capital to double mine production and relocate the plant? No doubt he is being courted by a queue of Canadian investment bankers acting with no self interest !

Hi Xenor, Prof, GGG, Analytical, FTSE, DJ, MB and all (most anyway) other regular LTHs on this BB, I just wanted to float a thought past you about the LT outlook for RMM, not least because this seems to be one of the much better BBs.

However long it may take (but maybe on the condition that the production for June 2020 is over 600t!), can we agree that when (not if) the RMM share price hits 60p, we all meet up (there must be a pub somewhere in or near London called the Rambler) and celebrate... but more importantly, we might even try and time it for when TB is over here on an IR roadshow and get him along to chat (between us we must hold a more than reasonable percentage of RMM). Anyway, just a thought on a too hot Friday afternoon!

Hi Gitfinger, actually I don't think you are right.

I'm not here to defend Aim (not least because I don't have a clue who eh/she is), or anyone else for that matter, but I make the general observation (not about you, but about a number of regular posters) about this BB that the level of criticism and in many cases Vitriol posted here, when someone they don't like says something they don't like makes this a really unattractive BB... so I thought that given it would only take a minute, I would fact check your numbers.

On 29th Dec 2020, the share price (even if it was only for a minute) hit a high of 93.45p. A few days ago, on the 6th July 2022, it hit a low (once again, even if it was only for a minute or so) of 18.2p. So over that period, if you back-calculate and assume Aim had 1.35m shares, the value of his holdings has fallen from £1.26m to £245,700. I don't know his holding, but its very simple Maths....

Most of us are heavily underwater in AFC, and investors have the right to feel very aggrieved. I still believe the problem was the Company created a newer better product and every client understandably said they wanted that, not what was currently on offer... putting us back at least a year as AFC then developed the new fuel cell, clients started testing it and we started taking it towards full commercial production. In their Comms the Company has been absolutely terrible. But some of the condescending and aggressive attacks by some on this BB are worse. GLA all genuine LTHs.

ElProf and GGG, I completely agree, though since I believe they are mining in high grade areas, I think they need to break 650t to excite the market. I am hopeful for an RNS later today, and for the reasons you give below, I remain hopeful the production number will be very good.

I accept that whether they publish today or Monday may be immaterial to the fundamentals, but I continue to question why it takes any company, let alone one with only one mine, more than 5 days to publish production figures for the previous month, since they should have them internally within the first 24 hours after the month end. Some of their comms, or maybe more accurately, their ability to inform the owners of the business timeously when there is news, remains a concern for me.

FTSEinvestor and Analytica, I agree with you both... on Cu and production, but maybe not on SP. By year end we should be mining at a 8,000t pa run-rate... but given that in addition we will have the 43-101 and a proper economic model based on increased reserves, and with the ore sorter being, or about to be installed...etc, suddenly we could be looking at +10,000t minimum for 2023, so I am hopeful of more like 60p-80p+. If that sounds ridiculous, I suppose it of course depends on the overall equity market sentiment, and remembering that working against us is that following a down market, investors sell the winners (like RMM will be) because they can, and as the market recovers, the big stocks rise first and the smaller ones last. But I still believe, even in this (equity) market - and assuming no SNUFU's, that by the end of 2024, we should be nearer £2, even with the necessary dilution we've been through. We are so undervalued, our time will come - we just need to deliver!

I now I've quoted him before, but to requote Warren Buffet;
“The stock market is designed to transfer money from the impatient to the patient.”
“Price is what you pay. Value is what you get”.

Hi Fulmar, Seis is welcome to filter me, I'm not sure why he takes that view???

I expected drilling would start soon after the RNS... and I was wrong, and I still hoped it wouldn't take the full 90 days for DD, but I may well be wrong and AA do, as with some other deals... doesn't change the fundamentals of the story, just the timing. I am completely overweight and carrying a loss (I invested initially in late 2020 and just before the Indaba this year - expecting the SP to rocket if there was a deal) but I am here because AA think its so good we will find at least one big deposit... Being accused of being a troll (and therefore being in the same class as Ella) isn't exactly pleasing when we have had some great discussions here... but when its simply because I quote the RNS, is one of the unattractive things about this BB.

SeisNav, That's very good to see!

Only 35 days max left before signing and then 1 month (hopefully) to 3 months (hopefully not) of setting up the J/Vs and then even the drill rigs should be shaking with excitement... just as long as AA are intending to start drilling the moment all the legal boxes are ticked off! GLA!

I try to avoid looking at the Bluejay BB other than weekly at most because its so depressing, so last night I checked the Bluejay website to make sure I was up to speed on events. No news so I reread the research report that the Company itself commissioned in January this year, and thought I would highlight a couple of points…

“In June 2021, the Dundas Exploitation and Closure Plan was approved by the Government of Greenland. This was the final Government-level approval required before construction could commence”… (that was 13 months ago)

And...

• Commence pre-construction activities at Dundas - summer 2022.
• Complete project financing - 2022.
• Project construction - 2023 and 2024.
• First commercial production - 2024.

So let me grab a couple of those points “pre-construction activities at Dundas in the Summer of 2022, and first commercial production in 2024“. WHERE is the news on the pre-construction activities? Well since its now July 2022 and they don’t have any financing, maybe that’s no surprise.

…And the pre-construction activity is very important, because according to the Company's commissioned report, the actual "construction period is expected to be around 18 months (two summer seasons)” so even if they did the pre-construction activities this summer, production is unlikely to be anywhere before the end of the summer (and end f the shipping season) in 2024...earliest. When I then reread the Ian Hannam research note from May last year, in their financial model they were forecasting 144,500dmt to be “shipped” in FY2024… which is increasingly looking like complete “pie in the sky”; more likely first substantial sales in Summer 2025 earliest.

I rechecked in the January report to see what production they are forecasting for 2024... and all they say is... " expected annual production is 440,000 ton of ilmenite in concentrate". but no indication as to what the company will ship (or even produce) in the early years. I have seen hundreds of mining analysts reports and I don’t think I’ve ever seen one that gives an NPV but declines to provide production figures by year... maybe that's because the old numbers are irrelevant and the company don't want the owners of the Company to know everything is continually slipping.

Its also worth noting that they use opex and capex costs as per the Sept 2021 IR presentation and a valuation using (I quote) "The company’s PreFeasibility Study results published in 2019"..., so I'm trying to work out what value was added in that report.... I am more worried that they thought that paying for that report was the best way to communicate with the owners of the company.

And their communication remains… it’s so bad it’s almost criminal. I am staying with my current 55% loss because I believe in the potential of the other assets in the ground, and luckily even this management can’t ruin those, but as to the management… so out of their depth.

To all those discussing selling, just thought I would share my view.

Six months ago we had a bull market in AiM mining stocks, Cu price rising, economic outlook quite good, but RMM having problems raising finance, catching Covid... hitting any targets at all...etc. Now we have a major sell-off in Aim mining stocks, CU price down 25%+, worries about a deepening recession, but Rambler on track to deliver the turnaround.

I'm going to go on taking the SP pain because even though CU may well fall further, and markets may fall more, I still believe we will see the Cu price at USD15,000+ per tonne at some point... I am just no longer as confident as to exactly when it will happen (I used to think end 2023). I still believe we will soon hit 7,000+ tonnes run-rate with the ore sorter only 6 months or less away, and at some point we will get that rerate, but this market is completely different with many headwinds against us, though personally if I had any spare cash, I would buy more; I became a shareholder for two reasons; the company and the outlook for Cu.

What we also need is the overall markets to stabilise, but I don't see that until the Fed has reached peak interest rates, which for me is another 50-75bp, and of course the smallest stocks react last.

Mining comes with risks, and management are hopefully going to deliver, and I've often mentioned before my concern about not knowing RMM cost numbers (and if I was an ii, I wouldn't touch a company that didn't give them), but overall, the main thing that still worries me is the tendency of our management (and most Aim companies) not to tell you when there is a problem. i.e. until I see the numbers in the next RNS with last month's production, I remain concerned something has happened I know they wouldn't tell us about at the time. That for me means I am always looking back, not forward.

If last month they have had another issue and only tell us then, I may not sell immediately, but I will no longer look to be a LT holder. My belief is Directors purchases was a message that there are no problems. God forbid I misread that one! Good luck all Ramblers!

Thansk G_G_G. The only number I think have a slight difference with you is on development which I think will be nearer $10m, but so be it! On another BB, someone just posted an excellent clip of Robert Friedland, CEO and founder of Ivanhoe Mining talking about mining in Saudi Arabia, and future copper demand. Now I know he is one of the world's greatest salespeople, but as you know he's also incredibly successful; and while the presentation was given just pre the Russian invasion of Ukraine when the world looked different place, the long-term numbers for future copper demand are simply stunning, so I have posted below. Well worth watching the first half.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XHd-F39QDOc&t=2767s

Hi Fulmar, Thanks for sharing. Robert Friedland is one of the best sales people you could ever listen to, but he's also incredibly successful as you probably know. The numbers in the video on future copper supply were simply stunning. Great watch!

G_G_G, I completely agree, and given the 9th (when they released the last two monthly set of numbers) is Saturday, we may have to wait until late Friday or even next Monday. Maybe I am missing something, but it seems to take RMM a long-time to tally up the tonnes produced in one month... not least given that in April they released the figures for March on the 5th April. That creates a problem slightly (even if not intentionally) of the company's own making. Now if they release the production figures earlier, and they are good, you could be forgiven for thinking that when they have good things to say they rush them out... and vice versa.. not ideal. Unless I misread the director purchases, this is going to be a bumper month (I'm now thinking under 650t is very bad, plus 700t is very good), and it needs to be good to get investors to believe that the 7,000t guidance will be met... as the average monthly production required creeps ever higher. I'm a LTH but still don't see a rerate until we have production +700t for 2/3 months AND visibility on total costs going forward - everything we currently know about costs is either hearsay, taken from general management commentary or based on historic numbers; the company now has a higher No of employees and much higher fuel costs. Certainty in this market is very important.

Hi all, if AA use the full 90 days we have a maximum 37 days left until the signing. I would like to think they would complete the DD quicker, but who knows with a company of their size. Hopefully we also then get details of the drill programme, but I suspect we will have to wait until the signing of the JV agreements for those, which as we know also allows for a further "up to an additional 90 days"... if they use that time in full, the first drilling will actually happen in early November, but would love to be proved wrong. Who'd have thought 12 months ago that we would be in this position today and the SP would only be 3.3p!

Joycopter, I wasn't able to open the version you posted which seemed to be a podcast, but I think this is the written version - apologies if they are exactly the same.
Mineral rush: How Chile's mega mines are critical to our electric future | Climate News | Sky News
https://news.sky.com/story/mineral-rush-how-chiles-mega-mines-are-critical-to-our-electric-future-12643616

Thought you might all be interested in this re the amount of Cu needed to meet Green targets, but also the impact mining is already having. https://news.sky.com/story/mineral-rush-how-chiles-mega-mines-are-critical-to-our-electric-future-12643616

Hi the manxmarty, I am in Arc, Rambler Metals & Mining and Bluejay Mining. Rambler has has more promises missed and disappointments than you can shake a stick at, but is now a producing Cu mine with a mkt cap of only £35m - its share price is now 21p, down from £1.50 two years ago... (and around £32 in 2014 so a 99.35% fall since 2014!) and whilst there has been an enormous amount of dilution, hopefully it will hit its production target of 7000 tones Cu this year - which would make it a major turnaround story by a good management team... assuming no further disappointments. Bluejay has what should have already been a producing Ilmenite mine in Greenland and some fantastic exploration properties in Greenland and Finland, including J/V's with Rio and Kobold (Bill Gates...etc)... but amongst the worst management/BoD I have come across, from both a delivery and communication point of view... and given this is Aim, that's setting a very low bar.... but the geography is about as prospective as you can find.

Hope you are right... that would be extremely positive. and btw my comments are about timing, not the quality of the deal which remains excellent.