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I have received confirmation from Burford that the results are not being released today, and that they will give advance notice of them being released.

From Trinity's note today "Cooper has a direct presence in the seven largest European markets, operating via distributors in the remaining countries. We believe the launches will cover these major geographies, including the UK, during 2023...Cooper is known to have high expectations for Eroxon’s commercial potential and its roll-out across Europe is keenly anticipated. The slippage of the expected FDA approval into Q223 is not unexpected, such novel products are often subject to requests for clarification. The more important aspect is that management reports these discussions as active and constructive. As we have noted previously, the market opportunity as the first clinically proven erectile dysfunction (ED) treatment available OTC (over-the-counter) and with a differentiated and rapid onset of action (ahead of typical oral PDE5 treatments) could be significant. Even modest success would be transformational for Futura Medical. Our valuation is £264m, equivalent to 94p per share."

From Liberum's note today "This small delay comes after some minor non-clinical questions were raised, and confirmatory data requested by the FDA. The company expects to fully respond and submit requested data to the FDA by the end of the month. We have spoken to management and remain highly confident of US approval. In fact, given that the only issues flagged by the FDA were minor, we are even more confident....We remain buyers with a target price of 121p....We are now in the final stages of the review, and the FDA has come back with additional questions on MED3000 and has asked for some minor non-clinical confirmatory data (which should take a matter of weeks to respond). Futura aims to respond by the end of this month, but it does mean that a decision on FDA regulatory approval is now expected in Q2 2023 (vs. by end of Q1 2023 previously). We have spoken to management and remain confident of FDA approval. The
additional questions do not seem related to the clinical data but to nonclinical data that can be generated both quickly and inexpensively. Given the company believes it is ready to submit responses by the end of March, the issues look easily surmountable. The issues flagged were, in our view, minor, and our confidence in approval remains intact, if not strengthened. This confidence is founded in the fact that the European regulatory agency has already approved MED3000, the excellent efficacy and safety data published to date, and that Futura has had six meetings now with the FDA, the latest in late February, so we feel that if there were any major issues that would have been flagged by now. "

Yes you are right, for the first few days of marketing there was a 10% discount which has now disappeared, of course we don't know why but it seems a fair guess that it is because there was good demand.

It would be nice though to see some new reviews. One wonders at what stage people get prompted by the system to write reviews. It could be only say 7-10 days after the order is despatched, which could explain the lack of new reviews.

Nejc, where did you get that figure that Morocco is 1500 tons a day - I was under the impression that it was less?

For me the main news is that we don't need to worry that the major delay meant there was some other problem with the project eg OCP not being interested anymore, we can just put it down to a massive delay at customs.

But to be fair it can't be a leak of good news, as Noel's technical analysis based on the charts proves that there won't be good news....

Actually I have noticed quite a few times in the past that the day before an announcement from QFI there has been share price movement clearly driven by people in the know.

Found it now - it was last September, so not new. That means today's price action is more likely because of a leak, or so we can hope.

When was the MSC Conference and do you have a link please? Thanks

Price up 3.6% in New York, to $9 or equivalent of 740p

Has anyone read the paper? Is there anything new there - good or bad?

The price action is extraordinary now. They have said they have been entering discussions with US companies to agree marketing, although this is only expected to be agreed after FDA approval. One wonders if there is some buying from insiders related to those US companies. Barder did say though on the webcast that the discussions are at an early stage, so it doesn't seem likely to be buying based on knowledge of an imminent good deal being signed. But maybe one of those companies is looking at a takeover offer of Futura? I mean it has to be something serious happening behind the scenes, it's not just PIs suddenly deciding to buy more, the volumes are much too big. Although it could be an investment institution doing some stake-building, however I would have thought that in that case the intensity of the buying does seem somewhat unusually high. After all, surely they could spread it out more gradually as FDA approval is still going to take a bit of time. Which makes me think.... though of course it could be wishful thinking.

Surety, yes it looks like the market sees it like you, with the price going up; the farmout was being delayed because there was no clarity on what the final government policy will be, thus making it hard to make propert calculations and decide how much it is worth for partners to invest and on what terms, now they know (more or less) where they are and they know they aren't likely to get much clearer information on what could happen, so it's decision time for everyone.

Does anyone know exactly when this meeting is of oil executives with the chancellor etc?

It looks like a whole thread was deleted from last night with lots of comments about the presentation - why? I note that many had complained that the company name was supposedly never mentioned in the whole thing, and I pointed out that Monk was introduced at the beginning as the "chief scientific office of Synairgen". Is that why it all got deleted?

Looks like the overhang may have cleared

Well spotted Vince, that could be behind the share price movement, and it looks set up for more gains judging by L2.

I was thinking that maybe the share price weakness is because people are assuming that the new 75% total tax will in reality continue after 2028. This would reduce the value by about half. But against that the broker valuations (660p, 720p, 856p) make various assumptions about whether JOG would be left with a 20% or 30% interest after the farmout, and what the average long term oil price will be, which seems to be why they come up with different values - but in any case even if you half these figures you get more than the share price, and of course it is not certain that the WFT will carry on, or even if it does, it might not carry on as high as it is now. So the price definitely seems too low. Also, finncap (who give the lowest value of 660p) assume a 30% interest and an oil price of $70. I would think that at $70 the WFT is highly likely to be cancelled thus leaving the value at 660p. If it were halved then the value would be about 470p.

HF, yes, very possibly.