Member Info for dgdg1

Greener, do you have any clear basis to assume that the govt is actually going to bring in an EPL floor - I mean there has been much talk about it but nothing has come of it yet and it seems to have gone quiet - so is there something specific making you confident about this?

Maybe a better analogy would be "a perfect demonstration of breaking a contract"

Actually, I understood the "masterclass" comment not as praise for Sysco and/or implied critcism as Burford, rather it was meant ironically, like saying someone committed a "perfectly executed crime".

I am wondering, let's say the farmout really happens on terms based on which analysts have valued JOG at £8 say - does that mean the price would go very quickly to £8, or would it only get there when production actually starts and if so I wonder what price it should get to in the short term?

Frazerjohn, right, nothing has been added to the fiscal burden, but the point is that it's hard to agree terms when neither party knows what the final tax policy will be - as since we know there could be a loosening of policy then potentially farminees might offer better terms, but they can't do that until they know the final tax position, and similarly JOG doesn't know what terms are reasonable for it to accept, and it knows that it could be worth waiting for a better tax situation in which it could get a better deal - so it's not in shareholders' interests for them to conclude on whatever might be on offer now. It makes a lot of sense and is really not at all the fault of the company that the govt is dithering on finalising its tax policies.

Battery, to be honest I don't know much about other companies that are focused exclusively on the North Sea, I'm not a sector expert but I would imagine each company would have its own individual circumstances - which other companies are you comparing with?

Yes, I think the fall in share price is not because we are near the supposed "deadline" of 31st March as promised by JOG - if so it should happen on Monday - why today more than yesterday? The fall is because no floor was announced for the WFT in the govt announcements. But today was billed as a "Green Day" (before it was renamed - according to the FT, because jokes were made about the name) and only happened because a court mandated the govt to clarify its green policies. So there is actually no logical reason for them to have announced changes to the EPL today. Indeed, they didn't refer at all to oil taxation, or certainly not in detail. Clearly they didn't see it as appropriate to announce all their energy security policies today including oil policies, as this not related to achieving net zero - otherwise they would have raved about how the investment allowance encourages investment in the North Sea. They just didn't talk about it at all as it wasn't relevant for today.

Indeed at https://www.agcc.co.uk/news-article/uk-government-airbrushes-out-north-sea-oil-and-gas-industry it says:
"But one industry insider suggests news relating to oil and gas has been deliberately pushed back to a later date. There is thought to have been fears their inclusion would give Shadow Secretary of State for Climate Change and Net Zero Ed Miliband a stick to beat ministers with. It is believed that the oil and gas measures are still happening, with an announcement possible next week."

Similarly, Ithaca announced toady "We remain committed to investing in the UK North Sea, however the impact of the revised Energy Profit Levy ("EPL") announced in November 2022, in particular the removal of the sunset clause, is constraining our ability, and that of our JV partners, to invest. With a reduction in borrowing capacity across the sector as a direct result of EPL, the ability of the oil and gas industry to unlock the benefits of investment programmes across the UKCS to provide critical domestic energy security and meet its Net Zero ambitions is under threat. We continue to constructively engage with the UK government in relation to the future fiscal policy in pursuit of the stability required to make these critical investment decisions." - note "We continue to constructively engage with the UK government" - so clearly change may well still be on the agenda.

So I do think all this negativity is out of place. What may be true is that the delay in finalising the policy may cause a further delay in finalsing the farmout, as farminees want to have finality on the tax position, and JOG may well announce as much. So it's just a case of more delay through no fault of the company, nothing to do with incompetence, so all such negativity is just silly.

Actually I suspect that the whole subscription is not because of an immediate need for funds (the company didn't say there was a need for funds) - but because Wickes sees value and wants to buy a large stake. He can't buy that much in the market at anything close to the quoted price, so they arranged this subscription for him. But of course they can't do it just for him as everyone would say it's unfair and possible illegal, especially if eventually it becomes clearer the comany is worth a lot more or there is a takeover etc. - so they make it open to the public but the price is put high enough above the market price that makes it unattractive to anyone without inside knowledge - then no-one can complain as they were also offered the chance to buy. Job done.

Genuinely, if you want to deramp I would suggest you do it under a new ID - you're just looking ridiculous now. By the way, when you talk about being down £150,000, which is based on your claim of having about 1m shares - the day to day movements are of very little relevance to someone with a holding that large as there is no way you could sell that amount at the market price, you are basically depending on a takeover or major news to make it possible to sell that stake, and gambling that will happen rather than a failure in which case you basically lose most of it. (But you know this anyway)

JamesSimon posted at 10.58 today "Bargain entry point for those who haven’t invested ." How quickly he has changed his tune!

JS, after you owned up to reramping for your own benefit on 17th March you did promise not to do it again - oh well..... clearly you've decided you want some more shares.

https://www.agcc.co.uk/news-article/uk-government-airbrushes-out-north-sea-oil-and-gas-industry
"But one industry insider suggests news relating to oil and gas has been deliberately pushed back to a later date.
There is thought to have been fears their inclusion would give Shadow Secretary of State for Climate Change and Net Zero Ed Miliband a stick to beat ministers with.
It is believed that the oil and gas measures are still happening, with an announcement possible next week."

Supporting this view is that in the govt publication there are references to the ongoing importance of oil and gas in the interim, and yet I cannot find any reference at all to the windfall tax and investment allowance. I mean, if the govt had decided to leave everything as is they surely would have at least trumpeted how their present policy with the investment allowance is so good as it encourages investment. The total absence of any mention gives strong weight to the argument that another announcement is due re oil and gas.

https://www.cityam.com/north-sea-oil-and-gas-industry-is-struggling-despite-bp-and-shell-record-profits/
"Hunt is now widely expected to bring in a price floor for the Energy Profits Levy, meaning the tax would only be active when oil prices were above ‘normal’ levels."

"I'm here to stop people like you trying to hoodwink others about the potential" !!!!! So selfless and caring!! What a joke! Briggs, if you want to deramp at least try thinking up a different story that's more believable. And I would suggest a new ID too for a fresh start. Otherwise no-one will take you seriously.

But Noel has proved from the charts that the price is going to 1p, so no good new is possible, and that's the end of that (haven't heard from him recently, funnily enough).

OK, so hopefully we will from now only now see your intelligent side (no returning to deramping as if you try it we can link back to your admission post!) and maybe you can give us some genuine extra insights into JOG.

Greener, thanks for that link, shame none of us spotted it earlier, it came out last Wednesday. It definitely implies some sort of improvement in the investment setting for companies. The relevant bit is ""In addition to the measures in the spring budget, the government will set out further action later this month to ensure energy security in the UK and meet our net zero commitments," the government said in a budget document."

Combining that with the reports before the budget that the government seemed sympathetic to some sort of price floor for the EPL but were not going to announce it at the budget but rather at a later "fiscal event", it looks like hopefully there will be some good news, and obviously it makes sense for those in the bidding to wait for the details, so no doubt some more delay. Actually with the oil price at around $70 there isn't really any grounds at all now for a "windfall tax" - I'm surprised the share price isn't reflecting these developments. I assume it's just retail holders losing patience and not noticing these important bits of news.

JS nice to see that I have got you to come clean. I'll admit to all that I am clearly very naive because it took me ages until I realised what you were up to. I mean I didn't sell because of your negativity but I think I am too straight myself to have quickly realised your scheme. I just thought you were strange and unbalanced in your changing positions. And that's even though I know all about rampers and derampers, but you just seemed unbalanced more than anything. Until finally I woke up. But now we are here I do wonder how many shares you really hold. The most interesting question is how much do share prices really get influenced by rampers and derampers - does anyone know of any research on this?

""The Moroccan group could potentially require 2–5kbpd of fuel, depending on how many of the group’s sites deploy MSR/bioMSAR. The requirement could be substantially higher if Quadrise’s fuel is used extensively across the group’s sites."

Thanks haggis for that quote. What I fail to understand is that these two sentences seem to directly contradict each other.

Also, while you are right that the November 2022 note made these statements, Edison's note in November 2021 doesn't have the "substsantially higher" part at all - it just says "Assuming that the trials complete successfully, management intends to conclude a commercial supply agreement covering one or more of the client’s sites in Morocco around during in Q2 CY22, potentially leading to commercial deliveries equivalent to 2–5kbpd from H2 CY22 onwards."

Can anyone explain please? Thanks

In case anyone was wondering how JamesSimon seems to have such dramatic mood swings as to his feelings about JOG, and how he can be so negative while claiming to hold such a lot - the answer, IMO, is that he is a trader, or paid by a trader, or someone trying to build a position, to influence the market. It helps build up his credentials that he is a big holder by saying positive things, that way when he wants to be negative to push the price down he is believed more, as people think that even the true believers are now becoming negative. It's an old and well-known trick for manipulating people. It explains a lot about him, and indeed including why he posts so much.