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The Utah revenue is meant to come from selling a licence to Greenfield and/or anyone else (eg Petroteq) for the right to use the technology at an agreed site (potentially the new site), which could be done even before the site is built.
Liambooth, I think what we all would really like to understand is - 1) if you are a shareholder as you keep claiming, and yet you have all these well-thought-out reasons for thinking the company probably won't be successful, why don't you sell? And 2) given that you are not selling, why do you keep posting negative arguments, aren't you worried that you might affect the share price which would be against your interests?
Simple and clear questions, do you have simple and clear answers?
I know, it's not fair. They're now insisting I do 30 positive posts instead of 20 for each night in the 5 star hotel. We're now having tense negotiations and I've threatened to start deramping instead, but we may compromise on 25.
What an absurd comment from booth. Obviously what he writes is absolute nonsense (my only connection with FUM is that I am a shareholder who doesn't like his nonstop bashing and sometimes can be bothered to write a response), but if that is all he has to say then it certainly says something about him.
If I were to follow his lead of how he reacted to some posts he didn't like a few months ago I would be threatening to sue him for libel aginst me. But that of course would be a pretty stupid thing to do.
I don't know how many people saw IE's confession a week or two ago about how he had worked for a hedge fund where he was in a team paid to trash companies' shares but had lost his job. The posts did get taken down quite quickly but have been recorded elsewhere. I think we all need to wish IE congratulations on getting his job back, while remembering to completely disregard all his twisted nonsense.
I believe Bergen are out or very nearly out but it looks like someone else is unloading a large position, possibly one of the recent placees, could be finished soon or a bit longer. After that hopefully we will get the price going up...
Also the last sentence of the second last paragraph for some reason wasn't quoted. It says "It could go on sale by Christmas.". The issue being how many people will still have covid at that point given vaccines and natural immunity?
Sotrovimab gets emergency authorisation from FDA. Maybe they are authorising other drugs at the same time including possibly SNG, now that would explain the share price movement, let's see if there is an RNS in a few hours. You still would need to somehow guess what the total sales will be though....
mattw007, thanks for that.
Just because they are planning to be able to produce 100k doses a month does not mean that it is the likely demand. Also, evenn if it would be the demand at peak, this doesn't mean that it will stay at that level in the long run.
Actually finncap in 10.20 (before vaccines had been found to be successful) did not forecast 100k doses sold monthly (even though that was what the company was planning to produce) but peak yearly sales of £1.25bn starting 2021 or even end 2020 (or about 540k yearly doses sold, or less than half of 100k monthly doses). Presumably that was only for one or two years and substantially less for other years when they expected that by then people would have natural immunity or vaccines would be developed. We don't know what exactly they forecast. But we do know that they surely were not allowing for the quick production of vaccines. In the event, vaccines were developed and produced more quickly than anyone expected. By the time SNG is approved a very high proportion of the world will have been vaccinated or been infected, so sales have to be much lower than what they forecast in 10.2020, whatever that was.
I don't know myself what that should be but there is no way we are talking about 100k monthly sales indefinitely (which you are using to then calculate long term profits and fair value). Even finncap (before the vaccines were developed) didn't expect anything like that.
If I understand correctly, it looks like tamiflu was meant to be given to anyone who got flu (or even before they caught it), to avoid potential complications. By contrast, SNG is only given to people who are breathless, which is only a very small proportion of the people that catch covid. So clearly one needs far fewer doses to be stockpiled.
Mattrempit, to be honest I am not sure myself how to calculate it. I would need to know how much they could sell each dose for, what their costs are, how often each person with COPD would on average have an attack which would need treating specifically with SNG (as opposed to something else). I don't have these figures. I am simply quoting from finncap's valuation of 52p for COPD which one can reasonably assume is not massively underestimated.
Tonlin, thank you for you reply.
Certainly it will be a useful and probably life-saving product if it is approved, which it probably will be. But with all that the question is how much will they sell? Yes there will be some stockpiling but how much? I mean they are not going to buy now enough to last for the duration of an entire future unknown pandemic. At most they would buy enough to last maybe the first months of a pandemic, but they would also rely on the fact that by then they would be able to buy more of th product which would be manufactured at the time. You have to reach some numerical guess based on something and then work out the profits you think that will produce and arrive at a fair market cap, otherwise it's just illogical and you would buy at any price.
So I am still looking for some figures. If no-one answers this I'll try not to keep asking this as people will just decide I'm a deramper and start to get abusive. So please someone, refer me to a calculation (which allows for the fact that by the time this is approved much of the world's population are probably going to be vaccinated or have natural immunity or live in countries that probably won't be able to afford much to buy this). And by all means include estimates of stockpiling, just explain how they are calculated.
Yes I know they have a target price of 505p but most of that is made up of the value derived from covid. The last note that I could find where they showed a breakdown was the one of 16.10.20 when they said 52p for COPD, 9p for LOXL2, 336p for covid and 24p cash, total 421p. After that they increased the total because they increased the covid value, but I couldn't find a breakdown which shows exactly how much for each, I assume they left COPD unchanged at 52p. So I am simply saying why did someone post that the COPD value by itself was £5?
dactions - I have no idea why you think I am not really interested based on what I said about FUM - I have been a big supporter of FUM - why does that mean I am not interested in this? I am certainly interested. I would love to buy if I could justify it to myself, but for that I need some clear figures that I can understand how they are calculated. I mean especially in respect of the vaccine issue and how much demand is likely to remain for covid. Is someone going to help me?
I honestly don't understand where people get their figures from. Fincap's note of 16.10.20 estimated that COPD was worth 52p a share (using 30% chance of success, admittedly you could push that % up a lot, but still nowhere near £5). Unfortunately some people are starting to see me as a deramper which I am certainly not - I will be very happy to hear alternative sources of information and ways of calculating value, I have no particular knowledge or strong reason to think finncap are right, but I would highly doubt that they would underestimate the value so much, given that brokers tend to overestimate if anything.