Member Info for deepjoy

Then you need to read back Kisp57 to some of the posts people who have been longer than five minutes have made.. Some top posters on here but not recently its gone too rampy for me atm when the fundamentals and potential were known by many a long time ago.... yes the SP has value and Yes the non balance sheet assets may have value BUT ... Cathal wont commit capital to scale up and so the market has not been guided as yet about how that scale is to be achieved and who funds it and what their return it ETC ETC.... DYOR not take everything as it is presented. regards DJ

Brooko me old mate... we all have confirmation bias on here one way or another. I think the broker valuations are the best indicator for me in terms of the fact that we are not overvalued at these levels which is a key point. The future is another matter and one that is entirely dependent on a number of as yet, unconfirmed variables. The future could well be the sort of numbers suggested but i would not put them out there as the confirmed contracts and models do not support it as this time.
Maybe i am a little cautious but for me the company is going in the right direction at the right pace so i am happy to aim for 30p by xmas and anything else *(including divi etc ) is a bonus. :)

I think you have stretched in beyond realistic Trader... mainly because two brokers have the price at these levels and their rationale although conservative is at least realistic. Ta DJ

Final thought promise.. Cathal uses the term "guided the market" a lot and in all that time he has never once guided the market in any RNS of the potential (value) of the sale of hidden assets in forward projections and balance sheet sheet terms. His every comment on revenue and profitability is on the current (book) business model.
When Cathal guides the market on the offer to buy off book assets etc... then the market and the broker will take notice and reflect that in the SP... I cant think of any other way to try to explain it . Have a good weekend all

KTRB.. He did but he didn't say people would be locked out beforehand. It serves no purpose to announce a retrospective ex date either cash or shares as it destroys share holder value as no such value could be ascribed to the announcement in the SP. That is my point. Cathal as a major shareholder is looking for share holder value and liquidity he would not jeopordise that in my view as otherwise it would be like asking people to place their bets in the price now on a roulette table yet to be spun.. Cant see the logic or business sense in doing that myself.

brooko...more than I can tell you mate only here cos the tides are wrong for the marina gate :)

Peter... respectfully i disagree with you and think you don't understand what has been outlined. The mechanics you describe are largely correct, but you have missed the point entirely about the fact that "value creation" comes from such announcement. The value of any deal is not factored in at the moment so part of the reason that I don't think Cathal will announce a retrospective ex date is that it only kills the market. I have never heard of such a move .

Pete.. I am not sure... It may be the case as he may need to convene a special meeting for shareholder approval to list ??. Not entirely convinced of this but that was certainly the case with another AIM company recently who announced today...with the cut off date ahead of them now...

Barwick.. It can't be valued as there is no agreed valuation on it..Cathal may think it is worth X whereas any potential buyer values it at Y.... once the price is known then tangible capital value hits the SP... Buyers will flood into the share up to even 90% of the revised valuation then the fun begins as people second guess each other on what the best strategy is .. Hold and accept the divi or sell and take the price offered before ex-div date... All hypothetical of course but for me I'd hold my remaining holding take the Divi and see more value down the line ...
In simple terms the SP should always represent the premium to future earnings..:0)

agree Ivy 100% :)

Blah.. valid points I agree. I think the way I try to explain it was keep it simple through accounting and transfer of created capital value. The X factor is priced in of course to some degree but given the risks involved it wont carry much of a premium in my view. The dilemma for share holders comes when we consider the potential for a separate listing rather than dividend far more difficult to judge that one.. Cheers DJ

Just passing through Demon... still have a few of these but not at the levels i once had. I only have 15% of my PF here now...:)

Peter.. I dont know if it was me you were responding to but if it was you have misunderstood.. The SP should go much higher on any announcement of any potential sale of immutex to reflect the suggested value of that transaction to shareholders on top of current valuations. There is always a discount of risk of course but for example if the sale was £100m then one could expect a re-rate in MCAP of circa £40m (given the risk discount and company share).
When the dividend or whatever takes place happens the notional transfer of captial to shareholders or its value in a separate listing means the SP should fall back from then new Mcap to reflect what the company was valued at before - ie - the current price :)

Ok you have drawn me out of my slumber to voice my opinion. The valuation of orph group outlined in the broker projections of current pipe line deals using balance sheet assets is circa 18-22p. That is the group balance sheet assets which, of course do not provide valuations on immutex which is just a shell company with no declared assets just directors (but clearly has IP in a vaccine candidate).
Likewise the valuation of other non balance sheet assests (data) is not a tangible asset per se'.

So all things remaining equal, the company at this time is on par with valuations, therefore any actionable sales of Immutex or the other data should cause the SP to re-rate to the implied balance sheet value of those assets at that point in time. One can thereafter reasonably expect a fall back from the new SP when the transfer of capital take place between the company and the shareholders. In simple terms it is not priced per se' because it can't be.. The benefit of the existence of the potential assets is to make shares sticky on potential even when it cant be costed... That for what it is worth is my opinion on the situation here and FOMO is a key driver going forward alongside contract news.. Cheers all - back to sleep

I take your points but I suppose we will all find out in the next month or so .. Good luck to all :)

which you do not get until final results and then you will discover like last year and the filed accounts of Bids Ltd the year before that the rate is circa 75%.... Check back and see as final accounts cannot lie. It will tell you that gross profit is 25% of total revenue before everything else. In essence they receive revenues but then have to split them between media owners etc etc ..

Mr Draper is under no obligation to mention this at any other time in the year and is adapt at steering the narrative away from it. DYOR it is worth it

I'll have that Brooko, it was tongue in cheek and yes I feel better thanks and maybe I did become less objective which is the time to sell you are bang on there .. cheers and GL

Bed wetter as you describe is perfectly fine with me Brooko... I try to be little more respectful to people myself but each to their own. I'll take my profits and go and change my nappy or whatever ..Bye

all day...whilst this ain't going to be popular, I just thought I share with the LTHs here that I trimmed my holding today by a far margin. The more I think about it, the more the current valuation (as of today) seems a fair one and bang on the broker projections taking all into account. So I've always seen the broker valuation as my medium term target so sold a fair bit out now.
The second reason is far more simple and the main one- I am mentally tired of the journey, I had the end of October in mind as some of you will know but to be honest this isn't fun anymore but that's just my personal feeling.
All the very best to each of you on here I am sure you will do very well I've just had my fill of second guessing everything mentally and emotionally I was too attached... still hold but not enough to get my mind racing too much for the first time in a long time. best wishes DJ

Doh.. thanks Aquae :)