Member Info for deepjoy

seasonally March always seems to be the low point for this company with August of course being the SP peak with increased demand for more seasonal offerings from their range. I think this year will be a bumper year over the summer as international staycations take hold. Hard to be really bullish in the current trend but I am :)

interesting perspective but this company has no notifiable short interests against it. All we closed below the threshold end of last year. I keep buying ;)

If you overlay ULVR with the GPB/USD chart it is clear that currency fluctuations have a major impact on the SP and earnings here. With sterling expected to continue to strengthen over the next few months there will be ample opportunities to top up as the pound is strong against loads of currencies atm. My biggest holding by some margin and it is only set to get bigger month on month for me as I will continue to buy it down if it goes there of course.. GLA

FT reported that the chancellor is considering a 2% tax on online retailers to offset the reduction of business rates for bricks and mortar retail. might have something to do with this drop.

Smelly...100% agree. The pound is surging against the dollar and short term it presents headwinds; long term opportunities also. The £ could go to $1.50 so top up as we go for me. safe as house this investment over the long run.

how very insightful ... clown

If there is one lesson to be learned here it is that these boards are not the place to consider for un-bias investment information. Time and again everyone was warned about the company's methods and cost of sales and time and again framing bias caused the loudest to rally the troops against a minority of people like me (et al).
Mr Draper is not naive, far from it he has taken home over £600k in pay and cashed shares since 2017. The same cycle will repeat again and again until people here bother to research properly including, how the company was listed, the history of the Board (CEO) through previous directorships and crowd funding activities.. All relevant especially the bids ltd reported accounts before listing. cheers DJ

thank you Jimzi. I'll say no more on this thread but good luck to everyone.
DJ

Yes it was me.. I am sparticus!!
Although 12p was a little tongue in cheek there are, in my view, a number of risks in this company despite the very capable CEO. A lot of investors work on big assumptions and that is fine, but one also has to question the narrative of the past few months whereby the accelerated SP activity was down to some serious marketing which, in turn, paid off handsomely for a number of 'Institutional' ( I use that word cautiously) and retail early investors.

Orph have pivoted from orphan drug date, to testing (we heard no numbers on that) and to HCS model for covid at a cost of of several million if I recall for them to announce that covid was a small part of their business. So what is the big part is the logical question to underpin valuations.
The market driver for the SP was the rush to develop a vaccine and that (for now) has been achieved. Now you could all argue quite rightly that the current vaccines may fail in the end to cope with the virus mutations. If that is the case then there has to be proper consideration to the validity of the orph HCS model also in that scenario? So the investment case for me is binary; either the HCS stands up to new variants or becomes redundant or the vaccines being rolled out will be effective and the demand for HCS may fall.
Each HCS developed needs investment and time. If Cathal pays out dividends then where is that future capex coming from? Either the revenues fund growth in which case the CEO should be clear about it or it stays as contingency for future investment.
As for valuation, the balance sheet reflects 10-12m of non returnable revenue from work yet to be done does it not. Therefore future revenues are delayed until the work is actually done which won't be easy if the virus continually mutates and the company HCS plays catch up.

My point about the chicken is simple... the growth of the company is more than facilities for HCS, for CS companies it has to be investment in future capacity to develop support services outside of HCS and this, concerned me.

Lets be honest, institutions have been selling for three months or so and not once have I seen a post on here questioning anything other than them profit taking. The risk of being blinded here is high as if the CS business area is going to be in demand for the next decade why aren't II's sticking with it, or even investing more?

None of you know their motivations but are free to exercise free will and judgement. I sold out in the end as that was my decision and for the record I could be wrong. The reason for this post is simply to explain a logic. Whether to agree with it or not is not the point of it. Examining both sides it.
regards to all, even to Andino who drew me out skillfully. DJ

If there is a write down then the CFO would take the blame given that he remains in post for six months pending appointment of a replacement. Far different from a quick departure 'to pursue other interests' that we so often read as a cover. :)

yep me to. This share is at a bargain price given the way the company has executed cost reduction and pivot to B2B.. largest holding for me now.

I agree it is not a stock for me. Bottom line here is that no one on this board can outline the investment case for BTC other than price action and trends; that's a bubble investment case. GLA

What many do not understand about this share is the evidence that it is a leveraged play on bitcoin prices so talk of just the company fundamentals being the measure of the futures is something I disagree with. The share has a leverage factor of circa 3 judging by the price action of ARB and BTC over the past two months. So BTC climbs 300% and this 10 bags; BTC fell 5% this morning this dips 15% and so on.
The long term investment case here is not one I understand. Ever increasing capex to mine for ever decreasing coinage is wholly reliant on one thing - continual BTC price raises. Yet no evidence exists on how the huge energy and computing power needed in the future to underpin BTC transactions is to be facilitated other than mining. There we come to a major problem in the BTC narrative although some speculate it would be have to be through transactional fees charged by third parties or some form of modifications to the block code .. Either way this is a leveraged play so the associated risks / rewards apply. To look at it any other way is illogical in my view. ATB and good luck

Starbuck... Are you for real? all this tells us is that Shell do not consider this a commercial / scalable opportunity and that BA are only interested in getting carbon credits as part of an overall ESG strategy. No good news at all

Bottm.. The simple answer to your question is that the cost of sales was 75% before this company listed and the same thereafter in the first published report as a PLC whivh you should know was published in December 2019. So we had a rise on sentiment and hype which everyone bought into without any clue what the margins would be (unless you looked at bids ltd accounts filed with companies house).
So last year the cost of sales fell to circa 72% if I recall but so far the business is not demonstrating it is scalable. Meanwhile JD pays himself 150k a year. Lets not forget that he didn't invest in this business himself did he? How he came by his shares are in the prospectus. Having skin in the game is not the same as being given skin in the game but that is just my view.

The one thing about accounts is that they cannot lie and if investing capital only a gambler would ignore them. So, to end I am not saying this company doesn't have a future, what I am saying is pay close attention to the cost of sales and that, and that only will demonstrate the growth potential of the business. This should be a lot less than it was last year otherwise any increase in revenues is totally misleading. There is a reason TU never outline hard figures and that is what I would urge some caution over. Good luck all

DD don't waste your time. take your profit and be thankful. Most on this board are blinded to the narrative without taking the time to understand the true nature of the business model and margins from revenue. This is a reason the focus has always been on revenue but the bottom line here ; which will be evident in the financial report is the 'cost of sales' this better be a lot less than the last three years for the business to demonstrate the model is scalable but most wont even bother to research this and follow the narrative as always.
40m warrants is also a consideration if the SP raises but hey they will brush all that under the carpet and talk about multiples of REVENUES... good luck all but look for the cost of sales and keep an eye on JD's salary figures.

The major concern I have with this share is the cash burn rate (1.9m left in August) and the last raise at 5p was to meet costs for 4th Quarter....!!!???

real spread is 10.5 - 11.4 atm but clearly they dont hold much stock hence the quoted spread

the dark before the dawn and they are perfectly positioned to grab market share. Really like the coppa club concept and locations are going to be perfect once the restrictions ease... I am in this morning.

And we closed 1.3% up today after all (whoop whoop) :)