Member Info for deepjoy

Agree Mark as a corner stone investor and a canary to the market in this share he will be courting them all right.. Has a timely remainder from listening to Paul Hill today about markets. Share value and share price as two entirely different things and that SP is defined daily be the actions of a very very small minority of investors stakes... less than 0.2% for example is a good reminder of the difference and I sometimes forget that point :)

Ted .. good point... PS, as for invesco if they were looking for an out I wouldnt put it past Cathal to use some excess revenue to buy back shares and cancel them as opposed to paying a full Divi per se'. all possiblities may be considered knowing him and all increase share holder value on way or another :)

Bronx I doubt they will give a truthful answer even if you got one. Remember link giving assurances to cathal and we all know how that ended and that they had agreed months before with Acacia on a sell out option .... I agree that invesco is a conerstone investor but I suppose their intentions will only be borne out by the passage of time.. For my part I can see the possbility of us drifting down to 20.6p by xmas eve given the chart trend and low volumes without decent news flow but so be it, hence no attempt to call the bottom by me but as long as I see share value I see value. GLA

That is a lovely sight cheers Bazz :0) always darkest before the dawn

I find it is pointless to call the bottom, it only leads to punts and dissapointment and, perhaps more risky than that overexposure!! The low volume trend is symptomatic of sentiment and although II's may be selling down so are a few retail I suspect. What is encouraging is that this aint a firesale it is a steady off load chrun.

The main lesson I have learnt from investing is simply to examine one's conviction.
My conviction in this company is strong and on the back of that I may see the share price as undervalued but chucking more money at it is not going to give me a better return in the short run only increase my stress levels and lead to jerk reactions thereafter perhaps. In essence I know my own weakenesses and recognising that has helped me no end. I was nearly 20% down in this share on the 4th of January this year and look where we are now. You cant mess up too much if you are neither greedy or fearful after all. Bearish on the next couple of weeks but bullish on the future... doing nothing but waiting is my strategy but each to their own and what works for them. :)

The one thing cathal and I seem to disagree on is the term 'fast growing' for me this company is not a fast growth company as it is not using capex to grow, in fact the opposite now he has slimmed down to reach profitability and in doing that has pivoted strategically to cash generative and increasing margins. If you see growth from partnership/ licensing deals and lease arrangements to increase HC revenues then i thoink we are actually seeing chas generation growth not company growth per se'.

The reason the market may take a dimmer view than a lot of us is that the pathway to company growth is usually measured by balance sheet tangible assets and such like is it not? So, the brilliance of Cathals approach is to have made the company lean and asset light without actually disposing of anything but overhead costs. Cash being thrown off goes straight to the bottom line and cost of sales should be light albeit at the cost of lighter revenues from partnship working. This isnt and growth strategy to increase market share it is a strategic to exploit income from third party participation in my mind and a very lucrative capex light approach.

The current mcap (circa 20m in cash) puts the valuation on earnings really low if the margins are there. That is what I think the market is waiting for, i.e how the growth in licensing / partnerships / leases translates into profit levels? We know he want to throw out cash to share holders and himself so for what it is worth I see cathal as a man milking the cow for all it's worth not one looking to build a herd himself... I like it :)

I bought this share almost exactly 12 months ago at a time when the message board was largely inhabited by tumble weed and a few hopeful souls. Circumstances then were as now,namely sentiment not great, volumes pitiful and people questioning the future. Now, covid aside it appears to me that Cathal still has the vision, drive and strategic edge to deliver more upside.
So in the recent times I've stayed away from the message thread as I was accused of being overly bearish at circa 25p well before further deal had been announced and government contracts secured as at that time I thought it was over priced. We (the remaining holders ) now find ourselves on this board in sparse company once more but for how long is the question? Cathal's PR campaign has ended for the foreseeable and good for him I say as it provides the opportunity for those on the fence of sentiment to step off. On that he and I agree. I have but one concern now and that is invesco.... but last night put my mind at ease more on that front.
Simply put I see the price as more than fair value especially when set against factual progress not hype; yet sentiment is well below par, strategy for me is simple now given then SP, the company progress and fair value. Sentiment changes in an instant, underlying fundamentals take care of themselves over the long term. Good luck all but the quck buck days are over its all about conviction and belief once more and in that I am comfortable waiting again. regards to all DJ

Dave...I would, like earlier posters really urge you to copy and paste that last post to Gfin direct or; with your permission I would if you prefer. It may be they arent sighted on it in the way you outline and I dont see any harm at all in investors putting forward ideas. You have far more knowledge than me that is for sure. regards DJ

Dave... I agree with your technical appraisals of their sites and you are obviously very knowledgable about it. I suspect he is aware of the issues and the limitations of their capability hence the strategic review. Personally I am excited about this company as they are at the table with some very influential players and not trying to get a foot in the door.
Of course nothing is certain but for me the investment case is excellent as a small comany on the verge of profitability with a decent foot print in this space is prime food for circling and very wealthy sharks.. Either way (apart from the pesky warrants) I see big opportunities here :)

Agree with you Demon, that said, I've been in this 12 months and the annualised return is fantastic so don't mind another 12 months even if five on those (like this year) are ruddy frustrating!! :) Wish all my other stocks performed like this all told.

If you listened carefully to what he has said in interview is stated that he was doing interviews up to christmas and that doing so aided liquidity.... i.e. he knew there was to be selling down. Simple really and on the plus side it protects the share price a little. The 64000 $ question is whether invesco will extend their promise beyond December.. in fairness there kept to their word this year.

JH actually its dipped breifly below the 50 MA on 9th and 25th November .... its the closing price that counts not intraday.

Re warrants - go to the annual report which stated that "At 30 June 2020, there remained £2.0m of warrants still to be exercised, £0.4m of which had been exercised prior to this signing of the accounts." take off what has been RNS'ed since and there is a fair few remaining ..

The concept is great but when you look at the half year report and see cash at only £380k then factor in warrants raises and on costs then there is a situation whereby one has to ask (given that they have also been paying consultants in shares) how does all the dilution benefit holders? Also if the plan is to develop their own manufacturing line then again the question is how will they find this? Director sells can often be seen as a sign.. so apart from licencing out their IP how are they going to fund necessary expansion to secure the best return? anyone know?

just one word of caution the term 'aquired' does not necessarily mean purchased. Whereas the previous days director buy was 'purchased' .... detail matters

2.3m sell just gone through at 24p and we stay marked up.. Crystal amber fund for HSBC nominee account declared 24.1% yesterday ... erm.. interesting indeed as we dwell in shark infested markets :)

Moniman... Ok so you have called me out.. evidence it then for all to see? point out the negative post content to me.. point out the de-ramps ... ?? You wont be able to because unlike you I try to qualify my opinion and use context and balance. It is actually quite funny being accused of being negative by you,, priceless even given your post history ...:)

Kisp... you take offence from a DYOR comment - wow sensitive soul! I wont give predictions on potential valuations, what is the point of doing that other than to ramp a stock based on a crystal ball well into the future?? The main crux of all my posts is that the company and the management are quality and as long as they keep delivering what they state to market I will keep holding.
The variables to future valuations are immense. They are risks and opportunities in equal measure and we have seen Cathal pivot more than once this year. Not all deals will be signed, competitors may or may not emerge or other shortcuts to vaccine approval even who knows?? What we do know is that the current strategy has been a strip out and get profitable one with limited investment in key areas (i.e challenge study). The company has in effect slimmed down to reach profitability but will have to scale up to gain the huge profits some here think will come. I agree, but I don't hold to blue sky valuations as Orph is a small Pharma services company after all. It is not the sort of company that scales easily and especially when the sale of some of the family silver has been promised to share holders....
So without sight of likely investment costs, cost of sales, revenue from sale of non core assets and liabilities that arise from third party support we don't have a clue where the Mcap will end up ... that in a nut shell is my position but I am happy that at this level it is still a good price. PS. for the record i wasn't referred to my previous posts in my reply as I would have stated so, I was referring to many other investors who have put equal amounts of work in.

Moniman - simple response from me to you. You have absolutely no clue about me, my motives, incentives or intelligence. your post history says far more than I need to :)

Brooko fair points. The loss of perspective is what concerns me. If people think, for example that the UK Government throw investment about without many many strings they are naive. If they are hoping that UK government fund the scale up then there is a downside to this yet to be costed. Likewise if Cathal seeks to expand clinical services then one of many options present but we can discount debt and raise but we cannot discount sale to fund risk elements for the non balance sheet assets. In this sense we are operating slightly blind and therefore it is difficult to calculate valuations in my view. Just too early but hey everyone has a view mate :)