Member Info for deepjoy

agree totally Indiscipline.. time is the only concept people should invest in now that, and of course keeping their exposure within limits which is also really difficult with a good company.

We have two known variables here... on,e for the last two months we have had a persistent seller(s) in the background and sometimes in the foreground. It is clear to me that they are not in a hurry and as such through Dark Pool orders, placed with MMs or whatever they are doing has control of the SP. Nothing we, or Cathal, can do about it given they won't play ball with the company broker.
The second known is less concrete of course, but there is strong support shown to the SP at 12.5 bid and 12.70 offer for the past six weeks. This is important, not only from a technical standpoint but because we can be confident that the largest sellers (be they the 12.2p purchaser 5th June or placees from the last raise) have a margin they seem to be adhering to. I got my hypothesis on who the seller actually is completely wrong last few weeks, but the SP has been tracking three cycles now back to 12.5p and for what it is worth that is where I would consider bottom to be. I hope we don't get there and to be fair to Cathal this is not company specific in my view it is just market mechanics...
The confirmed and projected revenues from clinical services this year already supports the broker valuation (50% upside at least) that, is what my investment case is based on and they, and I don't consider antibody testing or immutex as a feature of that valuation. I am disappointed by the price action but not surprised as things stand, I only wish I'd traded it the past two months like I suspect many on here have been doing, but that of course only excerabates the problem...
Each to their own I say but for me the company is doing what it set out to do and exactly what is guided the market on. Sometimes retail investors talk themselves out of a position because their wishful thinking and short timelines aren't being met to their satisfaction there is only one person to blame for that... I do.

GLA it is a solid company with a top management team but their locus of control only extends so far. Regards to all DJ

creeping up slowly .... :)

Noticed the Aux price fell back to 50c today, in two minds about taking my entitlement now will wait till next minute to decide whether it is worth the top up.

KTRB / Thompi, thanks both very gracious of you but when your wrong your wrong, so better be open about it .. not to worry I'll continue to hold and add as and when it settles a little more. Have a great weekend all :)

KTRB.. You are right there is no reference or supporting documents that show any current / prior Starboard holdings. In simple terms; I was completely wrong in my hypothesis over the past two months. No idea who the large seller(s) therefore left is now so going to take a step back and just hold on quietly, sorry everyone. DJ

You might indeed right Jimzi ... just cant bring myself to average up atm as I hold a lot already. :)

12.8p may happen again and sooner than I thought... not feeding the profit taker beast until their margins are squeezed to the min which has been 12.5 bid 12.6 to 12.8 offer. One point of note the MM has changed tactic in the past two weeks with late reported trades not reporting larger volumes sells two days later after hours... All a game but one in which the patient can score a few penalties and buy more.

PS... Starboard quarterly SEC report due out today (usually late on) https://sec.report/CIK/0001517137

that because we have had twice the number of Red than blue over the past two months (more than twice actually) :)

Blah... I agree with your last sentence thats why :) As for audacity you're right i have high conviction but not because of charts per se' as that is a technical signal that should not trump fundamentals. I researched this company more than most that is why I am confident. The charts mirror the deals done on the Woodford fall out and the price points for both acacia's pretty rapid departure and the more sedate selling of the 24m holder ( i believe still to be Starboard). Charts in this scenario are very useful, as they provide real time info on margins for a known seller and their fixed price. Not the holy grail thou we can completely agree on that. All the best :)

Blah.. I am not sure who that is directed to but as you include reference to my post then please include the context that I put around it ..i.e the SP performance since the '5th June' (is actually down since that time) and to be frank any suggestion that near term profitability drove the SP from 5p I do not agree with at all .
Oh and BTW I have done very very well this year thank you, mainly because I have held this since December alongside some very selective other stocks. No all winners but the ones that matter are, including this one.

We appear to be on the third downward cycle following 3 brilliant company news releases since 13th July. This is in many ways good news, a) if you had the conviction to trade (which i don't) or b) are patient as time and again the market has presented buy opportunities if one is prepared to concentrate on the number of shares they hold, not the intrinsic paper value fluctuations daily. The company hasn't changed, in fact on the contrary it is motoring on regardless and one day the true value will be reflected in the SP but only when the majority of market participants want to own the shares, not trade or skim the profits as and when they appear. What we have here is a very large institutional or otherwise trader taking marginal profits from retail buying their shares regardless. If you know this, and we do then the key is to work out their bottom margin to buy more at a very good price and HOLD, (or trade on the rise if that is your bag). I now own several hundred thousand of these and if the opportunity comes to buy more at circa 12.8 I will happily, even thou my account would show a loss of thousands paper profit from present levels. If the company story hasn't changed then don't change the story for the sake of the SP. top up 12.8 for me not before and I hope we don't (and do ) get there. GLA

The think is Moni you never back up your views with any evidence or logic other than talk about profitability. If profitability drove market sentiment than AIM would be non existent as most companies are loss making year on year. The only person who goes on Acacia is you also btw... With respect to state that the SP is no affected by the disposal of 38m shares and a further dilution of 20% from the last raise is beyond belief.
The charts from 5th June don't lie .... it is market fatigue behind the poor SP performance nothing more. People trading the movements in the knowledge that there is a persistent seller in our midst. If no one on here can get their head around the difference between the SP and the continual actual company progress then they have no place investing, especially on AIM.

The bottom line here that we suspect we know who the seller is, we know their margins from 12.2p and the technical retrace position from when they became active. My strategy not buying at these levels and not selling either. It could end at any time but if it doesn't; well I've shoved a long limit buy order in at 12.8p. If it doesn't execute in the next two weeks I am not bothered but if it does I have got another real bargain. Eight months waiting wont be eight months ahead :)

... a new trading range.

8th June - 10th July - 11.25 to 12.45
13th July - 7th August - 12.55 to 14.30
six attempts at breaking 15p
Seller or no seller holding make money atm and I think we'll see a new trading range and hopefully break and hold 15p soon. GLA

Yes Andrew - by Friday 13F declaration to the SEC. Only downside of course is that it only covered period up to end of June but we will be able to gauge a) if it was them b) what they did with their position until that date. All good intel thou.

Bronx... really valid views. Form my part I think there are a couple of barriers here for Institutions. The first is that the Mcap is too low for many thresholds and secondly, Institutions like to move on placings or broker deals not on the open market as it is difficult for them to buy volume. Given we have a seller(s) who wont engage with the company brokers this adds to the problem also and I think they all know that the company is liable to be sold in the short term (within 2yrs). If invesco are holding firm I, for one remain ok about it.

Thank you Andrew as was just going to rant about that. You saved me the bother. Large sellers need volume and there hasn't been anywhere near enough. The rule of thumb is usually 10% can be sold into volume per day and we have been nowhere near the required level to make any form of predictions. Bottom line here is that as an investor you are either obsessed with short term SP movements (trading) or you think value will catch up eventually..

"Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning."

sometime soon LTHs will have all the reasons to smile. Cheers all have a great weekend :)

yes agree the truth no one really know its just logical hypothesis from more detailed reasearch i posted on the 3rd July. We have the added problem of flippers, traders and Fear and FOMO to content with. My only strategy is these times in this company is not to Sell them cheap END :)