Quick Look at CPR11 Jun 2021 16:47
Early look at RISC CPR - pls don't believe what I write (Please DYOR):
- remaining volumes looks good, net 25 MM 2C. Netback is great, PI (or PIR) looks wonderful.
the CF can take a bit of crap / seem still robust
- initial dev (HM) vs redevelopment profile (forecast) indicates gravity segregation (see flush at restart) owing to density differences of reservoir fluids (not commented on the CPR). the length of flush and when water comes back likely is wrong (and that is ok). I don't expect early work to include film model, rock type specific hysteresis correlations etc in the FFM at this stage.
- No metallurgy discussion or indeed integrity issue considerations, chemical usage, supply, contingencies etc even with CO2 content up to 18% - a bit disappointed on this part with the CPR. I was expecting at least a discussion on the topic with a view to tighten it up at FDP.
- Dual ESP / ESP - this worries me a bit. less moving parts the better. What's wrong with GL? I've installed a lot of ESPs, some are good, some just crap. the latest dual ESP I looked for a friend who owns an oil co crapped out after 1 year and had to be bypassed (small diameter) causing very poor production. more analogue I can share on this. There are some successes too. whereas on GL, less drama.
- I hope they would source their floaters / jack up / MOPU from SEA. no point taking North Sea specs for that part of the world.
- Quote "The cost assumes a rig rate of US$100,000/day, this is reasonable in the current market where jack up rig utilisation is approximately 50% in SE Asia." - Maybe. Very recent chat with brokers indicate rates are expected to appreciate substantially for 2022 and 2023. better get that rig rates locked in early.
- "We consider the costs arising from the market survey to be immature. For example, one source quotes FSO BBC + O&M rates of US$20,000-25,000/day whereas another quotes lease rates of US$40,000-50,000/day depending on lease period." - agree.
- "Leasing arrangements with a component of lease rates linked to production could also extend economic field life. " errr, maybe not, CPR personnel should stick to their day jobs. That "great idea" is segway to be screwed by floating co once you have to open your books at this early stage. Simply, grab as much cash as early on, strip their costs down to the bone, lock contract and leave late life to late life.... deal with it then. its more valuable from a practical standpoint and also discounted view to go for cheapest floor rates, apply risk and rewards on topside plant uptime, and put huge pressure on pricing (cost +)
- the Tornado plot looks good with current data.
- cost of money might be a bit more than 10% (hopefully they can hit that). 14% discount still looked good though
overall, good doc with concept level input into it. it will get tighten up with time. I like the field. what I am less keen on is the farm in structure (direct vs indirect) but that's another day to review.