Member Info for deepbluediver

Please dont mirror HE1 to UKOG. Having been in the O&G industry all my life, UKOG, Angus, XEL and a few others are shares i never touched for very good reasons. Its like crap and gold. Miles different.

Yup, thats basic 101 oil and gas Dai.

Sharp eyes! Marvelous work.

And the size of the 3 targets can be estimated from g&g model based on seismic work.

I will try again, too many volumes! And typing on the phone.

He refers to the fact that the deeper they drill, the higher the pressure, therefore more gas can be present in a set (rock) volume, relative to shallower areas. Fluids and gas compresses with depth / pressure. The pressure gradient, or hydrostatic gradient averages between 0.45-0.47 psi/ft, calculated against water as a base. So you can calculate, at any depth what the hydrostatic pressure is (lithostatic pressure). And consequent (gas) volume assuming constant (rock) volume at the different depth to get an idea. Maybe they saw the (rock) volume between the 3 targets are similar, so decided to go deeper (bigger gas vol etc

Hope that helps

To be clear, some edit on my last bit:

"Maybe they saw the rock volume between the 3 targets are similar, so decided to go deeper (bigger gas vol etc)

Before seisprocessor pops in, ill share my 2 pence worth.
He refers to the fact that the deeper they drill, the higher the pressure, therefore more gas can be present in a set volume, relative to shallower areas. Fluids and gas compresses with depth / pressure. The pressure gradient, or hydrostatic gradient averages between 0.45-0.47 psi/ft, calculated against water as a base. So you can calculate, at any depth what the hydrostatic pressure is (lithostatic pressure). And consequent volume assuming constant volume at the different depth to get an idea. Maybe they saw the volume between the 3 targets are similar, so decided to go deeper (bigger vol etc)

Dyor

got it, 24.2p on my second top up

damn it, tried topping up again and no quote... :( what sale is this?

indeed, and I topped up....

Watching sp now, might buy in. :)

He was a long term holder and i too was a bit surprised yesterday. Hopefully he wasn't fully out, we still have all 9 targets yet to hit (just need 1 of 3 from each hole to call it a 100% success ).
Some moons ago i did suggest on this board to take a more relaxed view during drilling phase, the program is until end of Sept give or take. Pace, its a marathon. You will get tired and annoyed otherwise.
To share again, ive had light workover jobs at 95%+ CoS running many weeks late eating into P10 cost and beyond so yea, things can go here and there when it comes to downhole activity but its ok, it will get there eventually.
Bear in mind no one knows whats down there until the drill bit hits it and the drill team are addressing them as they find out. Safety, risks etc are all needing to be managed.
One issue i think is the build up and sentiment vs very near term expectations.
Anyhow, i hope he is fine, as a mid level youtuber (i think he mentioned it if my memory serves me right) he is ok financially.
Garden day today. Sunny here in central London.

Good morning all.

@joshwaa @phantom
All very new and informative for me. Thanks.

From your charts, seems like a stronger support at 21p )

@joshwaa @oiler many thanks.
The range shown on the chart seems well footed, captures the different analysts' target sp.

Joshwaa, many thanks.
would you hazard a guess where the sp would be with news of rig contract signed? go above the dotted line or above the solid line at the top? as you can see from my question, I know nada on charts!

Lets try again - I made a mistake.

Tai risked - 4p, unrisked 31p
Mbumi risked - 6p, unrisked 37p
Itumbula risked 5p, unrisked 29p
Kasuku risked 7p, unrisked 28p
+3p (from various)

The valuation range should be 21p - 52p, not 18p - 52p according to HP's valuation for Tai drill period (at 4% He concentration - thanks for reminding me on this too). 21p if all 3 Tai targets are dusters (6p+5p+7p+3p), and 52p (31p + 6p+5p+7p+3p) if 1 of 3 is a winner. obviously sentiments not included so give or take a few pence top and bottom.

I dont know how that tallies with charts etc.

Please DYOR and dont listen to me as i dont know

all the prices there works well for me Joshwaa, thanks for the chart.

To remind from HP:
Tai risked - 4p, unrisked 31p
Mbumi risked - 6p, unrisked 37p
Itumbula risked 5p, unrisked 29p
Kasuku risked 7p, unrisked 28p
+3p (from various)

So if we hit 1 of the targets for each above, we should be at £1.28 (£1.25 + 3p)

If on our first drill, all 3 targets are a duster for Tai, we still have other targets therefore the unrisked (minus Tai) is 97p and risked (minus Tai) is 18p. I suspect this is the floor if Tai gives bad news (all 3 targets are off).

If 1 of the 3 targets on Tai comes to fruition, i expect the new floor to be 52p (31p Tai unrisked + risked Kasuku + risked Itumbula + risked Mbumi + 3p).

so 18p - 52p range soon perhaps? Anyhow, what do I know... please DYOR and enjoy the upcoming news.

Thanks Oiler.
Yup, its different risk and upside between HE1 and ADV. One is prospecting with solid science backing it and field evidence and recent RNS confirming background He at 2.2% in the mud, much higher than any commercially produced He today. and one is an underdeveloped brown field (those bbls underground has been lifted and sold, proof is in the historical offtake, sorted).
My view stands as it was when i first look at the CPR, the appraisal will likely beat market expectations for ADV.

Please DYOR and dont listen to me.

Why not.
Anyhow, added 500,000 shares this am on ADV