Cobus Loots, CEO of Pan African Resources, on delivering sector-leading returns for shareholders. Watch the video here.
delayed by what, no official word from Tullow on spud date. Guyana Maratine administration suggest the 25th May with activities concluding on the 15th July.
Beebei-Patoro is 2x individual reservoirs in 2 separate geological periods. 60 day drill time estimate, 35-40 days on Beebei, 15-10 days on the Pataro?? Is it unbelievable that Beebei came in, they've logged the well, estimate STOIIP and have now moved onto Patoro... genuine question.
Logic suggests that it's a decent result given the kitchen has been identified, Karapa was a light oil discovery and the rig is still in field.
on a genuine view;
Beebei Patoro would have a CoS higher than 40% given it's derisked by Carapa-1 striking light oil in the cretaceous, issue being the reservoir at that location wasn't as developed as they expected. Beebei-1 is just an extension of Carapa. The static model would have been updated from the data gathered during drilling and the seismic amplitudes would be updated to distinguish reservoir from non-reservoir at the new drill location. CoS is likely 90%+ because they have the data to inform where they are drilling. Question is... the base case is 200Mboe but what's the downside? is the reservoir as developed as they expect based on the updated static model. if it's 40Mboe then 36Mboe discovery is non commercial (same as carapa)
Only time will tell
On another note, the longer it is until we find out, the more likely it is that it's a success since the'll be logging the well to identify STOIIP.
Not sure if that was aimed at me Eurofil but you couldn't get in much cheaper if you wanted to. What would you define as cheap?
Jubilee averaged 90.2 mbod through to May, TEN averaged 25mboed through to May - available here https://www.petrocom.gov.gh/production-figures/
assuming similar performance and Non-operated comes in line with guidance (16-19mbod) then we're above the full year guidance.
Rhaul will no doubt give us an update on his new injectors in Ghana (which nobody will care about because he should clearly be prioritising producers first), an update stating strategic partner in Kenya is ongoing, probably won't even touch on the Guyana drill nor the size/impact this could have on Tullow because he's trying to farm it down and finally, won't clarify the hedges so the whole fairytale of Tullow hedging 75% of production will continue.
The mans a good CEO but he's not great, which is what Tullow really needs to get out of this cycle
Maybe it's us mugs that don't know what we are doing. Raul is collecting a big fat payday each month with options in the pipeline, we're the only ones losing money here.
If you asked me whether we would be 60 or 40 2 weeks ago, I know where my money would be placed. Nuts isn't the word for the price action of Tullow over the year
Informed speculation would suggest Karapa-1 proved up an oil charged reservoir but targeted the very edge of the formation i.e. the Pinch out where the channel becomes eroded by shales. Beebei-1 is targeting the same reservoir but a more central location, I don't really see how they can miss, question is how deep does the oil column extend down. If its 4m before aquifer then it's a practically a duster. If it's 100's of meters then time to celebrate.
Decent. - 'This was announced by the Maritime Administration Department (MARAD), in a notice to mariners in which notified that exploration drilling on the Beebei-1 well site will last from May 21, 2022 to July 15, 2022.'
https://guyanatimesgy.com/repsol-starts-drilling-new-well-in-kanuku-block-offshore-guyana/
Envoi has been engaged by London-listed Tullow Oil Plc, to identify companies interested in earning up to 17.5% of their 37.5% non-operated equity interest in the Kanuku Block, offshore Guyana, by contributing to the forthcoming multi-target Beebei-Potaro exploration well. This multi-target well is expected to spud in May 2022 and will access targets in the Tertiary (Beebei) and in the Cretaceous (Potaro). The Block, which is operated by Repsol (37.5%) with partners Tullow (37.5%) and TOQAP (25%), offers a unique opportunity to participate in a highly prospective but unexplored part of the ‘world’s hot spot’ Guyana-Suriname Basin. Specifically, the central terrace of the Guyana Upper Cretaceous deep-water slope plays and up-dip equivalents of the multibillion bbl Golden Lane Play fairway, which contains some 23 discoveries totalling over 11 billion boe resources, all made since ExxonMobil’s 2015 Liza discovery unlocked this world class play.
Tullow also has a 60% operated interest in the adjacent Orinduik Block, awarded in 2016. During 2017 a large new 3D seismic survey across both licences was acquired, which was instrumental in defining a series of large prospects on the shelf margin slope , across both blocks, immediately updip of the multi-billion bbl deep water Cretaceous play.
The 2019 Carapa-1 exploration well drilled ~20km from the upcoming well encountered light sweet oil in Cretaceous reservoirs and demonstrated the inboard extension of the Liza play. Extensive new G&G work since, including reprocessing of the 3,888 km2 3D seismic, has shown that the sands at Carapa-1 are less well developed due to their location higher up on the deep-water slope than the ponded reservoir ‘sweetspot’ trend targeted by Beebei-Potaro-1, which will be the first proper test of the slope channel complexes identified by the new work.
The Beebei-Potaro prospect is interpreted to be in a prime location where stacked Cretaceous slope turbidites are developed, charged by direct migration pathways out of the proven Cretaceous source kitchen and discoveries in the Stabroek Block, which include the Yellowtail and Pinktail discoveries and, the recent Kawa-1 discovery within the adjacent Corentyne Block.
High Impact multi-target Beebei-Potaro-1 well spudding in May 2022 is estimated capable of containing several hundred million barrels of mean recoverable resource potential and significant upside in Cretaceous ‘Potaro’ target alone. Significant follow-on prospectivity has been interpreted on the reprocessed 3D in the Cretaceous turbidite play systems, stacked on successive ramps immediately up-dip of the proven basin floor play where associated with the prolifically mature ACT source kitchen.
As a reference, (Don't own shares) HBR Mcap was 4.1billion prior to the tax raid on NS companies. Tullow + CNE will be ~110 (assumes Jubilee expansion and TEN expansion deliver just 14 Kboed) kboed in 2022.
Total shares in the merger will be ~2.5 billion. Simple calc but, assuming we trend with HBR, we'll be around 50% of production so 50% of 4.1 billion.
Gives us a share price around 80p
If we reach 200 kboed, £1.5 a share. Plus our assets are better haha
Cash depreciating at a 10% NPV at current inflation rate, and the storm hasn't even begun yet IMO. In 2020 this would have been decent money to buy up stranded assets, but in todays environment it isn't going very far IMO. Any operator with common sense would hold onto their current asset base rather than sell before the real squeeze on oil begins. CNE can had it out on divi's and buybacks but how long before it's gone.
very short sighted IMO, asking for buy backs or a cash take over rather than the bigger picture presented with the merger whereby cash can be pumped directly into 60,000 STB development, Guyana drilling, Ghana and Egypt. This merger could quite easily create a +200,000 bbl/day company by 2025.
IMO I'm actually not that keen on the merger, CNE holders are spanking TLW holders with 3.8 because the share price has been suppressed. Equally though, if it goes through the merged company would be interesting to be a part of.
GLA
what a wasted opportunity;
https://www.upstreamonline.com/exclusive/at-least-3-billion-barrels-totalenergies-venus-is-sub-saharan-africas-biggest-ever-oil-discovery/2-1-1174983
on the lack of sense coming out of Tullow over the last year. Total discovered 3 billion barrels in the block adjacent to Tullow Oil. A few weeks before the well results Tullow relinquishes the block;
https://www.upstreamonline.com/opinion/namibia-basks-in-glow-from-venus/2-1-1177318
Before QatarEnergy joined the French supermajor, Impact and Namcor on the Namibian acreage, TotalEnergies was open to offers to reduce its interest in return for funding the Venus probe.
Upstream understands ExxonMobil and Shell were among the supermajors to access the data room but walked away due to concerns about risk plus the terms and conditions of any farm-in.
Tullow Oil also took a close look at Venus, sources say, but felt it was a supermajor play and was uncomfortable with the farm-in terms.
Life on Venus: TotalEnergies’ Namibia wildcat hits reservoir amid optimism
But, cutely, it did the next best thing and took operatorship of a block immediately north of Venus that contains an extension of that play.
The big head-scratcher is that Tullow quit this block in January, just weeks before results from the Venus wildcat emerged, leaving operatorship to junior player Harmattan Energy.
Why? What was there to lose by holding onto the block until Venus had been wrapped up? If oil is found in this tract, Tullow may regret this decision.