Member Info for deeko

For me it's not the waiting game, it's the fact that any time any reasonable amount of upward momentum is gained, someone starts dumping tranches of 100,000 to hammer it back down.

Games being played because if they wanted out, they've had plenty of opportunity to get out. They just seem to wait until a poxy rise of 0.005p before hammering it again. For me if I was selling up, I would just sell up and. move on, I wouldn't wait until it goes from 22.5p to 23p to sell. Seems arbitrary and in the noise really given you can get better returns by just moving on.

Either way, exciting times still ahead for this share and we should be sitting at 30-40p already.

Brutal day over at UPL today. Hopefully it comes good for the PI's invested. I never like to see PI's lose money at the expense of a large corp making a profit.

I personally don't see any migration from UPL over to LBE, the first rule of investing is never become attached but it's always the hardest one to follow. The second rule is does the company have a story you believe in, the RNS's coming out of UPL all sound credible and the PSC is always just around the corner... as the corners approached its just around the next corner. The board there should be held accountable and start giving some tangible details.

Anyway, hopefully I'm misinterpreting it and it will all play out as they hope.

Basically yes. Seems like these clowns are the ones that sold into the rise though on the 12th?

Hurry up and get them out so we can continue on. Hopefully they aren't around by the time DRO news lands and we can start to see some true value here. £11 million Mcap is laughable even now.

My summary - the DRO's don't sound small! and Kertang remains a monster!

Awaiting updates in the summer

These 100,000 tranches have definitely been buys

Tbf, after my buy showing as a sell at 20.44p (spread of 20p - 21p). I'd suspect everything above 20.25p is a buy.

Agreed, rerate has only just begun IMO

One thing I've been thinking recently is, is it best for LBE to sell down 50% of Norwegian JV? Current estimates based on what JAPEX paid us would be $10 million net paid to Longboat.

JAPEX have ambitions of growing Longboat JAPEX into a 15,000 boepd company, with JAPEX as the 75% stakeholder I'd suspect they would be inclined to push this agenda with more force. This then allows LBE to act more as a silent partner whilst keeping all the benefit of any progress in Norway.

SAVV - I'd personally just sell up and move on to something I believed in. Been there before and managed to claw back every penny of losses and multiples more. I wouldn't waste my limited time on this earth getting frustrated, I'd spend it researching some other company.

Zengas, brilliant post.

I keep coming back to the same question, is this worth more than £4 Million? Kertang which is a world class exploration target at 9 Trillion cubic feet, Discovered resource bids entered with a JV partner, Independent Norwegian JV which will be generating revenue at some stage from 1000 boepd and (regardless of what others think) potential acquisitions of production and development opportunities in Norway.

Can I see this being valued at £0.40p (Mcap £22 million). Without a doubt, and that's why I'll continued to buy tranches as and when I can.

What do you think the Mcap for a company like this is worth Ash?

I genuinely do not believe this issue is as big as made out (mainly by speculators and chancers and a CEO that is hanging all the washing out). I also don't think it will result in failure of the JV. The funding issues is a short term, on the other side of it is 1000 boepd. JAPEX won't walk away and paid $20 million for the 50% stake in the JV prior to the acquisition. way I see it is they would owe us $20 million now for the 50.1% stake and significantly more based on the outcome of the next drill which is 56% CoS.

I'm glad Jonathan is gone though. He seemed uninterested in the last update and if his financial projections have led us here then it's clearly time to hang up his gloves.

'In addition to its exploration efforts in Malaysia, earlier this year, Longboat executed an Area of Mutual Interest agreement with another E&P company active in Malaysia to pursue discovered resource opportunities ("DROs") being offered by PETRONAS. The companies subsequently made an application for acreage in shallow water offshore Sarawak and should the partnership be successful, the DROs are anticipated to add significant hydrocarbon resources capable of near-term development to Longboat's growing Asian portfolio.'

Free discovery with reserve based lending would be mega for LBE

I'm not concerned around this just yet. With 3.7 million cash at year end, some NEDs gone, Helge's salary gone and Nick looking to cut costs. I think we can scrape by for now.

-My concern is we are no reliant on Equinor resolving the issues with the wells quickly when they are so spread out across hundred of assets.

-reliant on Helge identifying a deal in Norway that will build some faith with the JV, despite not progressing any deals and watching multiple assets swap hands.

-reliant on Menzies farming out Kertang and finding an interesting acquisition in Malaysia that we can negotiate a debt vehicle for. I actually have more faith in this one!

All this could have been resolved if they just spent the financing facility provided by Japex to purchase as many late life, non development assets as possible early on. This is the risk with purchasing assets under redevelopment - huge delays and cost overruns, failed equipment.

It's not rocket science, you buy an asset that is late life that has poor operating uptime, you improve the uptime by fixing topside equipment that you can physically touch and see and hey presto, you double the annual production.

Another 2 deals done in the last month and LBE nowhere to be seen.

Concede bought Var Energi's stake in the Boyla field - 1600 boepd for $24 million.

DNO bought net 5000 boepd from Var Energy for $60 million (plus some asset swaps).

What the hell are these guys waiting for, if it's the perfect deal then clearly it's not happening. Just get on with it, stop being picky and start to build some value, yes we have out 1000 boepd right now but the main thing here is increasing cashflow so we can self fund further acquisitions.

If I was JAPEX I'd be getting pretty annoyed, we've given you $100 million, use it

https://www.rigzone.com/news/var_energi_to_sell_stake_in_north_seas_boyla_field-28-may-2024-176890-article/

Good shout Zengas,

Long story short, it's easily doable. Repsol, Source, Var, Shell (reports) are looking to either sell up or refine their portfolio in Norway so opportunities are around. Helge, for his lack of charisma has been in Norway for decades, has the connections and managed to convince JAPEX to join us and fund us.

Happy to be wrong btw Mommur. I'm always please to see other investors getting mega returns.

I'd just rather LBE aren't bought out by SQZ because I don't see the Ring Vet Vest being a big priority for them. They seem more contempt with draining every inch of BKR regardless of the diminishing returns they receive with each cycle.

I'm just not sure on SQZ in terms of their desire to truly branch out of the CNS, that's why I originally sold out.

They should, in my view be a 100,000 boepd company by now but they seemed too contempt and focused on BKR. Outside of R3, which was a plan that came with Rhum on the sale of the field. I'm just not sure what they've achieved. The last Tailwind acquisition seemed insane from a synergy point of view. SQZ had touted itself as a company focused entirely on gas production to then acquire a company focused entirely on oil (and fairly low rates).

Mitch Clegg IMO was the downfall of SQZ and it was crazy to save him from his failed time at Circle Oil, once TCW stepped aside as CEO the company has stagnated, in 2021/22 they we're given a miracle from the bull run in Nat gas prices and they still failed to do anything meaningful with the profit. I don't see them doing anything meaningful in Norway unfortunately.

Also worth noting, all other acquisitions in recent months - Kufpec, Barge etc have self funded the acquisition through production revenue. No money has actually changed hands with most deals.

The marketing documents seen by Reuters state 53 mmboe reserves and 29,000 boepd

Helge has stated that Longboat have potentially $200 million available in financing between the JAPEX intracompany loan and additional supplementary financing.

Repsol assets would be valued at around £420 million at $8 per boe as per the recent benchmark acquisition price.

6 months of production backdating between acquisition announcement and closing of the acquisition would come to $160 million at a conservative 30$ per boe of production. N.B. current production is 29,000 boepd.

Reserve based lending for the remaining $60 million.

Hopefully this is the reason HH has moved directly over to the LBEJAPEX JV full time. That would launch LBE into the stratosphere, set the stage for the Ring Vei Vest project development, fund a continuous drilling campaign in Norway and set the stage for Malaysia development.

I personally think this set up just allows Helge to focus on his domain (Chairman of Norway business) and building up that sector. James (Chairman of Malaysia business) can focus on Malaysia since it sounded like there is a fair bit of news to come out from Malaysia recently.

Nick can then get the stick from the shareholders that we aren't moving quickly enough.

Let's see what the next few months bring! Upcoming free carry drill in Norway too so should be fun.