Member Info for deeko

Great post, you can do primary school maths but clearly can't read above that level and have no concept of what types of hedges exist on the market.

Puts and collars you moron.

FFS, if your not going to research Tullow hedges then don't comment on them. Tullow is significantly more exposed to oil price than 25%... to the tune of around 45% in fact (I think you already know this though).

opps

'We'll have an amount of cash available for distribution by way of additional dividends'

What's not to like

Great interview... Graham's best lines 'We will produce ALOT MORE CASH', I see us exiting this year at 23-24 mboed ve the 21 previously conveyed

Right you are... extra zero in there! £60 million not $600 haha. Also I forgot to convert from £ to $.. so $80 million a day :) then account for KOS share of Tortue

Kosmos have Tortue. 15 trillion cubic feet of gas. Last year I would have called this the worst investment in the oil and gas business. This year... probably the best investment ever undertaken. I'm not sure what peak rates will be but probably somewhere in the order of Bcf/d. to put that in perspective if the peak production is 3 Bcf then at £2 per therm the field Is bringing in $600 million a day revenue

It's 45% upside exposure. 75% D/S protection. Shorters have cherry picked the information they wanted to communicate which is, 25% unhedged production... without discussing the hedging.

15% of hedges are puts - D/S protection only, if the price drops below X then your protected and if the prices increases they you get the full benefit.

40% upside exposure with the unhedged and puts

60% collars - D/S protection and upside cap. Clearly cheaper to put in place than a put

so we're at 40% upside exposure. Then the preemption kicked in which takes us to 45% upside exposure because the production is unhedged

Why waste my time, IR are paid by Tullow to regurgitate the message that's already been delivered to us at capital markets day. Yes they may be useful to clear certain things up but certainly are not going to tell me anything that's not in the public domain already.

As for genuine holder... it's such a straw man argument. Hedge funds take large holdings in good companies to oust bad management all the time. Being a shareholder and having frustrations that the share price has stagnated and the company doesn't even pay dividends to reward a holder is a genuine frustration IMO. I'm here because Tullow has cracking assets, I'm frustrated because the potential isn't being realised or even spoken about by the board

last negative post from me today... hoping this can be more of an informative discussion point.

What are thought on Kenya, BigRisky made a good point on Kenya (also a concern from me), Rhaul has signalled that Kenya development relies heavily on finding a strategic partner. My concern is that if they don't, they relinquish the blocks. He's shown he want's to allocate all capital to Ghana and exploration/appraisal isn't high on the list. IMO he's shown his hand that without a partner he's either relinquishing or selling it off at firesafe prices. Anyone have a different view that can alleviate my concerns?

exactly my concern. Rather than prioritising producer wells and putting contingency plans in place to bring in a second rig...the board has been more concerned with pinching pennies and saving $5M a year by pulling us out of a Namibia in a where 3 billion barrels was found.

All the high impact opportunities have been stripped away here and even the remaining ones aren't prioritised. We could have drilled 3 of the high impact producers (30,000 mSTB extra) by now that were presented to us last year. Instead we're drilling WI and gas injectors. Unfortunately the plans should be flexible to capitalise on the current price environment but the board remain rigid and extremely uncreative in the 2022 plan.

Thank god Repsol want to drill Kanuku otherwise it would be another boring year from Tullow

additionally, I know I could trade this but I honestly don't have the time to chase a few % here and there. Yes it mounts up but I honestly can't get excited by it

I agree on on the points you've made. It's gotten to the point now where I won't even increase my holding even in the low 50's because regardless of what's happened or what's to come, it's just being held down consistently. Every rise is sold into and the share price stagnates.

We rise to 60p, it drops down to 48p for no reason, then it rises back to low 50's to repeat.

I have to admit though, Rhaul is starting to bug me somewhat, he's starting to come across as just an accountant with no vision... this is just the latest article
https://www.upstreamonline.com/exploration/no-regrets-tullow-boss-explains-reasons-behind-orange-basin-exit-in-namibia/2-1-1190441

https://petroleum.gov.gy/well-activities

Decent little interactive map of Guyana. I didn't realise so many wells had already been drilled on the acreage?

Jaguar-1 discovery, oil well but unprepared for the high pressure encountered
Abary-1 drilled in 1975 by Shell, oil shows of 37 deg API crude in the upper Eocene, didn't drill the Cretaceous due to poor seismic imaging... We now know the prize is in the cretaceous

Good find, this will keep me busy until the drill

*apologies, meant to start a new thread for that. It wasn't aimed at this conversation

The Tullow circus continues...

The real gift is when Tullow finally starts to monetise gas sales! gas price was touching $600 per boe this morning, at 2,000,000 therms a day this is a substantial income stream.

Does anyone recall when the gas sales contract comes in?

Looks the there European markets haven't woken up to the fact that there global energy market will take years to recover and oil producers will benefit. Diverting funding to wind farms and solar panels will only exasperate the situation IMO

Now undervalued by around £1.5 a share. If we were listed in the U.S we would be at ATH right now

held this back over the last 6 months has done a phenomenal job. Some serious influence on the market that is

It feels a bit nonsensical to try to shave down a cost of $25 million. Why not prove up the theory that the previous well hit a pinch-out and the reservoir thickens to 100's/1000's of ft then sell at multiples and get a couple of free carries.

Exxon are still making waves in Guyana, we should definitely try to maximise our value in the block rather than giving it away for peanuts