Member Info for deeko

P.S.

'Deeko and your recent sale of half your holding for a price you're attempting to mock others for.'

Charlie - you seem to struggle to see anyone's trading decisions that don't correspond to your own thinking. Blinkered or arrogant, it's unappetising to read and will cost you money.

We are talking different things here Charlie. My 50% sale was based on events at the time, clearly once Iran kicked off, like any reasonable person my view was updated. If I knew about Iran of course I wouldn't have sold any... but unfortunately I cannot predict the future.

Once Iran did happen however...instead of spewing nonsense about how it would all blow over in a week, how oil was going back to $60 and how JSE was going into the teens. I kept my remaining 150,000 and bought another 40,000.

Again, if anything changes... believe it or not... my view might change again!

ATB

ATB

Comment seems a little bit silly now...

Surely these guys could have got something that would have exposed them to the upside.

Slightly frustrated with the lack of news here at the moment (my own impatience really), Temaris reserves upgrade were a complete rabbit out of the hat but where are the Inpex drilling updates, Temaris farm out updates and license awards! Come on guys! Lets get something going, almost 1Q down in 2026 already.

Surely this hits the mid 50's at least in the next month.

Straits of Hormuz is still CLOSED. Just becuase Trump says he's almost won, it doesnt physically change anything in the market

Out of curiosity, what would drive someone to sell an already undervalued oil share in this oil price environment. Seems odd to me that now seems like the best time to sell to these folks.

Any sellers willing to help me out, maybe you see something I've missed.

Indeed,

Iraq reduced output to 1.3 million barrels from 4.5 million due to no storage capacity - https://thearabweekly.com/iraqi-production-collapses-strait-hormuz-blocked-iran-war

Saudi reducing output due to storage capacity - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-09/saudi-arabia-starts-oil-output-cuts-as-shut-hormuz-fills-storage?embedded-checkout=true

Seems to me the Venezuela attack may have just been a way to guarantee the US has enough oil in case of an event that may take 20 million barrels off the market.

Has anyone actually listened to Iran’s foreign minister speak yet?

It seems pretty clear that Iran has no intention of negotiating or agreeing to another ceasefire any time soon. Their position appears to be that they were negotiating before and got attacked, then eventually agreed to a ceasefire, returned to negotiations, and were attacked again. From that perspective, it’s not hard to see why they would view any new ceasefire as pointless.

I also find it interesting how much Trump talks - saying things like “this war is won,” “I’ll pick the next leader,” or “Iran’s munitions are running down” - yet the evidence seems to point in the opposite direction almost every time.

My view is that Trump will try to backtrack his way out of this war. I don’t think he’ll manage it cleanly, and I certainly don’t see Iran rolling over and stopping because Trump said he's won. I think the US will have to pay a significant price (in terms of agreements, and back hand finance to Iran etc to end this war)

Ray Dalio’s book on the changing world order is also well worth reading for anyone interested in how empires rise, peak, and decline. His argument is that America is now entering the twilight phase of its dominance, and it’s hard not to see why some people think that.

Oil's sitting at $104 and the market is like 'add a penny to your year high'.

The back of this market will break at some point, seems denial is still rife at the moment.

I reckon that dry docking will get rescheduled too if oil prices hold.

Said it before and I'll say it once more.... Oil's going to $150 (probably significantly more) and staying there for some time.

Now imaging if we had actually been acquiring assets...

Maybe my remaining 150,000 shares will actually reach my initial price target at this rate! shame it took a global catastrophe to achieve rather than actual sound management but hey... doesnt matter how you get there as long as you get there

As suspected, almost every oil company up, meanwhile over here at JSE...

Kingfisher, are you pretending to be an investment house? haha

Must admit, I was pretty down this morning looking at SEPL given I wanted to buy but though JSE offered more. Sold 50% of my holding this morning (small profit of 14%). question is do I wait for the rest to dwindle or just sell the rest and never look back.

Again, until the management team are gone, I'm not confident there will be any major step changes in SP

To see PM304 (the petrofac assets) being awarded to a consortium that includes Enquest. Seascape nowhere to be seen on that one. Honestly think that should have been our first producing asset in Malaysia given Petrofac's difficulties.

Hedgeman - looks like the gravy train continues. I'll be increasing my holding once again.

I don't think we'll hear anything until they are awarded to the winning bidder. Right now it's just speculation but a betting man would guess they have submitted. It's just a waiting game really.

What I am pleased to see is that the DRO train on offer doesn't seem to be slowing down any time soon. The last DRO round only had 3 on offer with the MBR+ offering up one additional resource base.

This round now has an additional six on offer. If Seascape can continue with the progress they are making in Malaysia, then I would suspect they would be scooping up a few more.

Most interestingly, got to page 9 of the temaris award and then look at the Teratai award. Given I've already jumped to conclusions on Indonesia I'm hesitant to do that again.... but the Teratai DRO (specifically the Sotang field) has infrastructure already in place and is detailed as the closest export route option for Temaris. I suspect they will be going all in for that one. Wonder if they will acquire Teratai for the late life production but also the infrastructure for Termaris.

Legache, I think thats the problem though. Just plodding along isn't attractive to growth investors. we don't pay dividends so income investors aren't interested. And yes, I believe we are a bargain but I don't see an influx of value investors desperate to get in.

So yes, we have a floor under us, but most investors want to jump in the elevator and go to the 100th floor penthouse. We're kind of just sitting in the lobby until Vietnam which may be 3 years away minimum. At which stage its impact will be lower anyway to offset the production we've lost elsewhere through decline. Dividends will come eventually but you could probably get more from L&G or Astra Zenica without the oil and gas risk.

So what's our angle?

Indeed...

The JSE board’s decision to appoint an operations specialist satisfies the shareholder mandate for stability, but it creates a strategic bottleneck. By prioritising maintenance and 'topsides' integrity to protect the current share price, they are neglecting the aggressive exploration and acquisition needed for 'deep fu*king value' growth.

We’re seeing a repeat of the BP model -stagnation through caution - while peers like Exxon and Chevron thrive by prioritising growth. In a sector defined by naturally depleting assets, 'steady' is just a slow path to diminishing returns; if investors want low-risk, they should look toward retail or insurance, not oil and gas.

To weed out the dead wood and stop the rot from limp shareholders, JSE needs to stop acting like a utility and start hunting for growth again and I don't think the current CEO is the man to do it. But yeah I agree, Deals... Baby...Deals is the only way