Member Info for DeathStranding

Soletraderbl1, the largest known gold deposit in the British Isles is located much closer to home in County Tyrone. Unfortunately the BBC have not made a series about that yet.

If you feel the company has not performed then you should absolutely hold them to account to deliver on the promised transformation.

2857mal - see my post of last Friday evening for a view on the next 6-12 months. But let's have a statement from the company to cut through the crap.

I wouldn't anticipate a fundraise in the near term at the current price levels. There's €1m due to come to CGNR from the JV, and with project costs funded they will only have to cover corporate costs. But after that there is no revenue, €1m doesn't last long in a listed company and they have liabilities on their balance sheet that need to be fixed over the mid to long term.
I would also suggest that they would want to develop the business beyond the eventual minority JV interest, but that would have to be further down the line.
They need to get a strategic and operational update into the market very soon to build knowledge and confidence in what the JV project is expected to deliver and when. Without that, there's nothing to talk about really - just speculation. Remember the market is well aware of CGNR and its projects as they have been in the market for many years but have yet to deliver. They need to show meaningful progress towards a development plan, which takes time.

Presentation on the company website hasn't been updated - dated March 2020.

Because Clontibret has a resource and is the only advanced stage project. Clay Lake is an exploration prospect only.

I would expect the drilling priority to be infilling of the Inferred resources to upgrade them to Indicated (Inferred resources cannot be included in a Reserve so have no economic value), maybe even drill out some Measured resource to test the detailed continuity and geostatistics in this type of deposit. Resource update sometime late H1-2022 depending on lab turnaround.
There probably won't be much drilling below 200 metres because it starts to become uneconomic for open pit mining. I couldn't find a reference to the pit depth in the scoping study but the pit contained 440,000 ounces out of a 600,000 ounce resource (the resource at that time) and presumably most of the remaining 160,000 ounces were below the pit floor so that gives some indication of the pit limits.
I would expect there to be some drilling of the exploration prospects in H1-2022 but it will be second priority to Clontibret. Probably exploration drilling will pick up in H2-2022, depending on results.
Testwork, engineering and environmental studies at Clontibret will then probably lead to a maiden Reserve and prefeasibility study being available sometime in Q4 which will update the market on project economics (plus or minus 20-30%) and set a course for BFS, permitting and funding.

Not a bad strategy when you look at the frenzied retail interest that drove GGP and EUA, both of which became completely detached from fundamentals.

Jeez fairview! Look at the drilling results GGP were churning out, look at the $65 million deal with a gold major with specific expertise and nearby mill, and compare to CGNR.
I don't decide that CGNR is valued at 11m - the market does, and right now investors are willing to buy for 27.5 and sell for 30p. That's where it's at. I've given my view of why I think that's the case and if you don't agree I really don't care.
If you think these are bargain prices, I'm assuming you are loving it and filling your boots.

If CGNR starts to deliver GGP type drill results then maybe it will start to attract GGP type valuations.

Spot on Sprouts.

Malvern the GGP situation is useful to look at. The geology and development scenario is entirely different but if you look at the deal they did with Newcrest - $65 million earn in with a bona fide gold major with specialist experience in bulk underground mining and a hungry mill just up the road at Telfer - what happened to the GGP share price? Very little. The project had to deliver tangible results before the share price eventually took off and became a feeding frenzy. The JV on its own was not a major catalyst.

The market does.
Look at the price chart. June 2020 = 10p. July-August rises to 30p (200% rise) on back of AAZ proposed JV. January 2021 starts to trace back on Demir announcement, presumably due to loss of confidence / Demir unknown to market compared to AAZ's profile. Doubles from 20p to 40p in December 2021 on EGM then traces back to 30p (the long-ish term floor when it was believed the AAZ deal would go ahead).
There have been no meaningful technical developments on the project to explain these price rises, so it is the JV being priced in.
Then the JV values CGNR's 60% JV share at €15 million. Currently trading below that level, but I suspect the market will respond positively when there are some positive results from the JV work programme.
That's my view anyway.

Anyone who invested pre-JV (10p) will be up 200%. JV is priced in. Positive technical results required.

It's not interesting at all Stevehoops

This now seems rationally valued based on the JV earn-in value.
The company has a lot to deliver on now - infill drilling to upgrade the inferred resource; metallurgical testing to demonstrate a viable process route for the refractory gold; basic engineering to support a pre-feasibility study and establish a reserve; project economics to improve on the current published NPV of US$72 million; most critically, a viable permitting strategy - there is broad opposition to gold mining on the island of Ireland including recent projects being blocked by community opposition in the west of Ireland and county Tyrone.
Demir Export clearly thinks it is worth the risk capital and they will have their own criteria.
But it should be no surprise if the market is generally unconvinced until this project starts to deliver tangible outcomes.

Well fairview it happens to be the market that determines what your shares are worth so it is worth contemplating how it might be thinking.

Fairview: "I wish someone who is selling could come on here and explain why. It makes no sense to me. I give up now. I thought we'd be between 50p and £1 on the signing of the JV."

Make up your mind.

The JV values 40% of the project at €10 million. CGNR's 60% is therefore worth €15 million. So market valuation seems about right on this basis.
Everything above this level is speculative. This project has been stalled at "development stage" since 2014 so the venture will have to deliver a viable project with a viable processing and permitting route. That will take time and significant cash. CGNR will also need to actually deliver some of the "multi million ounce potential" rather than just talk about it.

Perhaps I'll check in again in a couple of weeks, to provide another reality check. Good luck everyone in the meantime.