Member Info for Ddraig

08.38 not sure I agree is last chance. Nothings ever certain but we have far more developed data and independent survey to revisit Charlie in Q1 2022 (FO 2021) which, regardless of the Peregrine result or any benefit from the pantheon drill, should be easily achievable. So I’d say it looks like 3 chances i. The next 12-15 months

09.10 thanks chrisev1. Defo looking forward to any further details Dave can share but pretty certain from previous interviews he’s likely to stick with what he thinks he can guarantee rather than ‘maybes’. On the drill front I think he’ll highlight one drill and detail the targets zones and expectations of success but it’s possible may get more. I don’t really expect too much detail on the SPV...most SPVs I’ve ever experienced tend to be set up that way as a conduit for as much privacy as is legally allowed. We’ll just have to wait and see but whatever we know Dave’s mantra is usually very balanced between highlighting the positives/upside whilst very openly detailing the risks that we must all consider. I got hurt with icewine2, the western blocks and Charlie 1 (tbc) but I can’t honestly get upset about it as all the presentations and interviews highlighted they might not work. Everyone should take responsibility for their decisions... although it’s a lot more palatable in a success case! If this doesn’t work we have experienced the outcome with Charlie 1 and could easily look like a 70-80% fall in pre result share price. The funny thing is we have to go back a fair bit to benchmark what a true success case share price move would look like, best reference would be icewine 1 I guess (although a very different macro environment) that was pretty good...let’s work towards that ...

17.43 thanks dreamer67. Whilst I genuinely do appreciate peoples view on the risks and less than ideal historics (which I’ve suffered since 2016) it’s always worth looking at the pipeline of opportunity. If I can coin a phrase from Dave, I believe, “it only has to work once”

Some very valid discussions today, interesting to see the view points.
I appreciate the risks but there’s still some prudent but significant positives.
- the last 6 months has seen the takeover, drill plan and permitting (tbc) and a farm out, I don’t care what anyone says, that’s a huge achievement and don’t be thinking a ‘big oiler’ could necessarily achieve that with l more spoons in the soup to get sign off.
- I don’t know who’s behind the SPV but I think it’s unlikely to be a group of postmen from Newark chipping in a few dollar each. There’s nothing to cogitate here apart from the fact we’ve got the funds to drill. And on that front we’re retaining 50% WI for c.10% funding...that’s a very decent split in good times never mind in the current challenging conditions.
- I don’t buy the argument to go it alone. If this fails, we lose 1.3m not 12.6. That means we can still operate the company to lead into Charlie-2 FO late 2021, rather than potentially end up bust and someone picking up, Icewine conventional, HRZ, peregrine the Yukon licenses and any passive value from license broader discoveries, lock stock the lot for a distressed sale valuation.
- on the schedule, best to promise one drill and have time contingency for weather and ensuring a comprehensive assessment (full assessment or weather could both could jeopardise a second drill). Particularly weather as this has been a very warm year against historic records, you don’t want to bet against Mother Nature. I’m sure if there is sufficient time to conduct the second, they would try but it falls in the ‘under promise, over delivery’ bracket.
- Dave has in the past acknowledged potential benefit to 88e for Pantheon acres. Brom and a few others have mentioned this recently, the Talitha drill could also hold value to 88e in a success event that extends under our acreage...and that really is a free drill.
These are the principles for my continuing support and positive expectations. Others obviously hold there own opinions and that’s their right. I may be wrong only time will tell and good or bad, I’ll stick with this position.

19.48
Not worried at all, not my style.. Just happy to say I don’t know what it means, if anything...I know my limits. Lol

19.08

It maybe something he’s significantly concerned about or it could be a standard disclaimer so people don’t whinge afterwards if something doesn’t go to plan.
Let’s hope it’s just a caveat in case they have operational issues and run behind schedule.. Equally it could be a disclaimer that the first drill is brilliant and it could be that drill 2 is an opportunity cost to spend more time assessing drill 1. Comments like these are hard to analyse with any degree of certainty...it’s all conjecture but if others get benefit running the scenarios then they are more than welcome to. All I know is that I don’t know if there is anything known to warrant it, maybe neither does Dave, and it’s just good practice on multiple well drills.

15.56
Yeah that’s exactly what I was implying. Hoping that open status will allow us the time to fully conduct both wells in a success scenario...and obviously hoping they are both success scenarios! Lol

12.45
I would presume there are other types of criteria rather than a free for all..but given its a Feb drill in Alaska north I’d suspect it will still be well below zero unless global warming has really got out of hand in the last 12 months. It’ll just be nice not to have to adhere to the ‘snow’ depths at various altitudes which, given a relatively more mild period, could significantly reduce the operations window. In particular as were trying to drill 2 wells and in an success event, potentially flow test 2, we need as long an operational window as possible.

Thanks dazzle. Don’t get me wrong, there are other interests that could benefit 88e where good ice road conditions are required this season from my understanding...I’m think about the potential Talitha drill by Pantheon very near our boarder?

Brom - 10.49
Maybe I’ve misinterpreted but I thought given the lighter rig it’s capable and authorised for cross tundra travel without an ice road for this drill?
Or am I making this up in my own mind? Lol

12.15
I get that but when the site has a bid of 0.39 and offer of 0.42 with a share price (Middle) of 0.38 which is had earlier, then it clearly isn’t a great deal of use bespoke the rather long winded criteria with which they propose to use. I go by the rule of it doesn’t make sense then it’s probably not!

Muddle=middle ??

All I know is that reasonably often the mid price is not the arithmetic muddle of the bid and offer and, unless a tight spread, the actual bit or sell price from a broker often sits inside the lse indication. It’s an imperfect reference which surprised me a little technologically but is what it is. I only care about the actual buy or sell price quoted when I execute a buy of sell...rest of it is ‘accounting’ noise

I’m just happy the raise has been completed with as little fussy and with good appetite. It’s necessary and once you rationalise that fact, this is probably as smooth as it can be. Now the shares have been issued we can press on even though if, history repeats, they’ll be a million comments relating to overhang and IIs’ clearing their placing position but I’m not too troubled by that. Nor am I substantively troubled by who the FO partner is, as long as the deal closes, a fair to aggressive WI split and they have a solid financial position (and no ongoing balance sheet challenges like PMO had in the background) then I’m happy. After that, hope the weather and the geology are kind for a positive result ideal along with a sustainable oil price increase.
Keep it simple and avoid the noise.

17.05
It's possible but also possibly not with other news pending. People will make their own decisions...

13.15
Not that close to RMP developments of the past 12 months, so can’t really comment. But on the positive side i guess you may well have answered your own original question.

12.58
We will see. And depends on what the estimated costs are. I’d expect as part of 88e’s due diligence to require the necessary funds in hand by a decent multiple and/or not to rely on a yet to be launch cash raise.
Agree with Brom...I’m not sure they’d go down well with investors either and given there were multiple competitive bids it would be an extra risk decision to hook up with them again.
But I could well be wrong.

11.51
Nothings ever 100% certain but with a market cap of £3m I’d be very surprised if they had the ability to. I’d have them in the outer extremities of any potential suitor list.

11.14 I agree...sounds like the deal will be aggressive (ie efficient WI sacrifice) given the multiple bids - looking forward it would be preferable that both 88 and the FO partner align on location, the drill is conducted safely, on budget and on time (which we do have a very good track record of)...the result to a large degree will be down to the petrophysical dynamics.
Best to look at these things with a balanced view between the proposed reward versus the assessed risks (which may well prevail as anyone with 12 months participation in this share will be well aware of).
But worth bearing in minding the risk front this is a new asset versus far longer involvement in the icewine acreage however I’m positive XCD were thorough with their research and 88e with their due diligence to make this a calculated risk...

Looking forward to who the FO partner is. I’m indifferent as to who it is as long as the deal is aggressive and they participate to fruition, whether that’s good or bad. Previously I hoped for a bigger player and/or one that could bring technical IP but given PMO and there relocation of the well it’s a risk that can work against you.
Appears to me that this FO is very much different, less bargaining chips but certainly more straight forward as a discreet area and targets (ie not multiple areas, not an unconv asset to carve out).
I might get shot down for this but maybe this FO would make more sense to Conoco, if I understood the comments recently they expressed an inclination to resume exploration capex and if it is on trend with their assets to the north then it may be operationally and financially efficient to enter the FO to maximise their participation in the play...of course it could be absolutely anyone else too! ;-)