Member Info for Ddraig

07.32 - Zoro 9791 would like to be identified as Florence Nightingale... lol

06.14 Rabito79. Arr this is in-between our 2 thoughts on funding , so it is theoretically possible to drill harrier without a CR. C.$18m would mean c.$4m contribution from 88e.
Harrier N14 looks riskier until/if COP derisk Harpoon with their 3 additional drills this season.
Merlin has a fair number of wells to derisk from Willow (but its still quite a leap of faith to extrapolate that to Merlin so I'm not suggesting this is anything but a solid hypothesised wild cat drill)
My money... if Merlin looks good they'll spend the time to flow test and leave Harrier for another season after COP 3 results around Harpoon this season. If Merlin isn't as anticipated then of course might as well try to salvage something from Harrier whist we have the operational presence.

14.30 - As I said, I'm not invested in Pantheon so am not that up to speed with it but I was basing it off definitions such as below.
"The Brookian megasequence in the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska (NPRA) includes bottomset and clinoform seismic facies of the Torok Formation (mostly Albian age) and generally coeval, topset seismic facies of the uppermost Torok Formation and the Nanushuk Group" - USGS
Its makes little different to me to accept your understanding that the Brookian plays you have are not Torok only
I do know Pantheon have a decent target and if that comes through, some of the play is likely to stretches into 88e acreage and, if it comes off, thats good for everyone.
Likewise looking forward to tomorrow. There's bound to be something of positive interest.

I've been around for along time and been to a couple of the meetings physically. As I stated when I started contributing, I only did this as I had to register to see the board so thought it would be good to get involved.
I'm not really interested in criticising/ back stabbing people, its a chat board not a playground (or board room lol). Sounds selfish but I really want to do well for me, if others make their own decision to have the a position the same way round and its successful then I'm happy for them, if not and they do poorly, I feel for them. I'm in the latter at the moment but clearly still see potential value here.

end of Nov '19 not Dec '19 (my memory is terrible!)

08.10 - I think I agree with Brom's recollection (I believe Stephen Staley implied this at the Globe in Dec '19). And whilst I can see where you're coming from, you can't compare an appraisal well (of the original Malguk well) with a 'green' area. And more to the point that's my point regarding dead certs versus longer odds.
Charlie 3d seismic, historic well data, main target oil in the Torok, the other 2 plays (Lima and Indigo) smaller targets possibly not mature enough.
We ended up with gas/condensate in the Torok, Indigo not great but Lima being decent on a liquids basis, scale, albeit it tight. (Effects the commerciality but if you can frac shale this is possible.)
On paper Peregrine doesn't look as good as Charlie or Talitha but we have less data, that's to be expected. We are drilling on 2D and hypothesising it on trend between Willow and Umiat, doesn't sound as good compared to having historic well data and 3D seismic (which it isn't) but that doesn't mean it won't work, its just investors are placing more emphasis on the unknown rather than a bet on whether the data is proven in reality.
I still think Lima (Charlie-2) will yield a positive result and I think the current independent estimates are naturally conservative. Thats down the road focus on 2021 is the current risk that investors should be concerned and determine their strategy.
I hope Torok works at Talitha location for both companies but remember 88e were pretty sure about Torok and we now know the result. Talitha still holds a fair degree of risk despite the number of targets but pantheon's MC can withstand funding this themselves this time even if it comes to little, whereas 88e can't at this point.
Please don't misconstrue this discussion, I wish Pantheon the very best even if it yields nothing for 88. I'm not invested there but I'm not going to criticise the positivity going into that drill, you/they are right to be optimistic.
As Brom says - no one knows till we drill and extract physical data and that's why from a cost perspective 88 are drilling Peregrine not 3D'ing it as the difference in cost and value of data is a good trade.
By April there will be a lot of smiles or a lot of tears...time will tell, best of luck.

08.54 - We agree its important for both companies and that result could provide 88e with better opportunities for their exclusive areas. But Peregrine could also do that, ie decent result could allow use to negotiate different terms for Charlie -2 (unlikely but maybe go it alone as Pantheon are doing). Agains I'm saying things are path dependant. Also there is the gross value to consider. even if Talitha were more beneficial unitarily, it may not be anywhere near the same scale.
Look, its a good thing all round, I hope it works and gives both companies success and further options going forward.

22.34 - you do seem more positive about Pantheon and less focused on the risks especially as you’re fully funding that one but I guess you have 100% upside. Wish you all the best for Talitha drill and hoping some of that is in 88e lease area.

22.34 - I get what you’re saying but I thought the Torok was 50% geological CoS only (its a while back so I may have missed something) and the 12% you’re quoting, I assume, is 40% geological multiplied by 30% chance of development? Regardless, the chance of development is a bit of a moving target, the petrophysical dynamics may be better or worse , market environment maybe better or worse, the scale of the geological find could be bigger or smaller.
I’m going to stick with CoS primarily rather than looking at the compounded probability as the CoD is path dependant.
But concede the seebee appears to be the only sizeable oil target at Charlie, if you don’t like the risk with the fan play there then that should make a dent in your aspirations from 88.

21.48 - highlighting risks will be heard by some and not by others that’s just the way the world works.
Not sure if your comments are valuable or necessary though.

I’m hoping the presentation will define what targets Merlin is planning to intersect, depths, definition of success etc. Not sure if there is the detail for additional drill information such as expected time table yet.

15.59 - I’m certainly surprised but obviously pleased. Not saying it’ll all be good but plenty of news over the next 3-4 months (Merlin, Talitha as well as the possibility of a strong general market environment If the COVID-19 vaccines works as proposed.)

07.33 & 09.07 - accepted
On the CoS aspect time will tell. You look at Charlie with modern 3D seismic, historic wells/data giving a much higher CoS, it still had issues and actually the composition ends up promoting the lessor target (Seebee not torok).
Yes CoS are an interrupted guide based on data but anything other than definitive, it could materially be above or below expectations. Higher odds horses do win races just as dead certs don’t.
Can understand why this isn’t for everyone though.

23.00 maybe the 50/50 over the initial 10m is what added to the reconsideration of harrier as a guaranteed drill (along with environmental and operational / testing factors) ...maybe your comments lead toward only drilling harrier if there is time, weather, and full success event incl testing at merlin. Simplistically with an expected significantly higher SP the dilution impact would be reduced compared to a few weeks back.
However 90% of my expectation is just merlin being drilled and I hope the results are sufficient to move us materially forward.

22.55 not sure you’ll get all the answers on Thursday relating to harrier, whilst some maybe confused, in my mind it seems quite clear, focus on merlin. Harrier is not the priority atm

14.57 - yeah, could be lots of reasons and funding at the moment will also be one. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to assume they want to guarantee and focus theirs and the markets attention on one well.
Possible the SPV want to see the first result before committing further. If good then similar terms (which 88e could manage based on current CR funds), poor then maybe the terms would need to tip more toward the SPV. Ultimately I have no idea so we’ll just have to wait and see.

13.51 the focus is clearly Merlin, that needs to be completed fully. Harrier is far more dynamic now with a lower probability there will be the time /possibly weather conditions to guarantee that drill ...this time.
Currently we should be able to drill merlin and in a success event have the time to flow test (I guess it would need some degree of fracing). I’d far rather spend the time and money getting solid evidence that merlin works than get a positive but not fully complete assessment and move on to harrier.
But if merlin didn’t look good, Harrier leaves an option to potentially salvage something positive.
Of course, I could be completely wrong...

13.30....same hymn sheet

A little surprised the beginning of the week hasn’t yielded more commentary around the latest RNS with respect to the Talitha drill and potential benefit to 88E. I’m not for touting other shares but this could have direct positive impact for 88E given the data evidencing this may well reach into 88’s acreage (which I mentioned in a post last week). Seems the market hasn’t necessarily reflected this nor really the uplift in Charlie 1 results/data. Regardless of the Merlin drill these are other potential drivers for our share price, particularly the Talitha drill which is due to spud in January. It’s going to be a very busy time from now until April.
Completely understand everyone should have there own opinion on risk and employment of their investment funds. History does tell us this share can often bumble around a given level for an extended period and then gap (either up or down) sometimes on very little data yet now we are faced with 3 share price drivers in a short period of time
1. Merlin drill (maybe Harrier as a bonus)
2. Pantheons Talitha drill
3. A further reflection of the value in Charlie ie some would argue the share price should be far nearer pre Charlie 1 drill levels (with far more data now) less the share dilution of the CR and XCD takeover
Whatever your decision, get in, get out, ramp up, cut back...best of luck and hope it works for you.

*08.33