Member Info for Ddraig

I get the fact people focus on results...and of course they are paramount...but DW can be rewarded for managing to get a take over, farm out and drill planned/agreed in the middle of a pandemic in 6 months...which allows us to have potential results to loom forward to this drill season....without this, we would likely be twiddling thumbs till 2022...consider that. Thats amazing work when you cross compare other such as Pantheon who had all the data, didn't conduct any takeover nor achieve the farm out they were looking for certainly as recently as October.

The schedule makes limited sense if you look at the description, Proposed start dates and proposed end dates....

A bit sensationalised for my liking, headline drill for 1.6 billion barrels....its not really as they are not testing the Harrier deep (Torok) and dare I say I don't trust the Torok given Charlie-1. So its really 1bn barrels - thats a good enough headline in itself so why give an opaque description. Anyway, is what it is, I'll take success in merlin alone never mind merlin and harrier (Nanushuk)

This drill, positive or challenging definitely has impact on the strategy of all the companies assets going forward, I'm not sure how many agree but for me this is a pivotal point - arguably the far more riding on this one than anything previously.

I tend to agree. This is pure wildcat exploration. There are definitely very strong arguments why it may work and given the shallow depth it's far more efficient (time and data) to drill than commission 3D seismic. We may end up with a solid result (would need to be on or above expectation to be getting the share price accretion some opinions suggest but equally it may result in gaining solid core information to realign and look at a more optimal spot next time or worst case plug and abandon (don't think anyone wants to see that but it is possible.). This is probably our riskiest drill since Winx given its limited data and using the analogous methodology to hypothesise success. Although better to be looking on trend geographically vertically (north/south) than Winx which was looking to prove extension geographically laterally (east/west).
But if we do find something positive in terms of volume, I think the porosity will be less of a concern as it's a nanushak top-set and the shallow environment should be within acceptable tolerances and commerciality parameters in my opinion.
I just hope the drill is safe and successful. We are using a different rig set up this time, hopefully that will not encounter problems and the bore is adequate to gather the data / results we all want.

Yeah that drill looks similar to Charlie 1, 3d seismic, historic well will oil shows, 4 target with different trap geometries, analogous to other finds in the locality ...I hope that runs better for them, as it will provide benefit as they appear like to have a tail in our average plus bodes well for any of the leads/prospects that are present in our central average as standalone.
Merlin and harrier are purer forms of exploration drilling for us and whilst there is additional risk from not having as much data, it’s really interesting that the model used to predict Merlin and harrier also predicted Willow. It’ll be soda law (albeit positive) that with this lessor information drill that we actually got something that pays...
Appears from timing whilst talitha spuds first given they are drilling all the way down to the Kuparak at c.10,000ft, I think it’ll be touch and go who issues results first. Suspect it’ll be 88e.
GLA.

“The darkest hour is the hour before dawn”....hopefully looking forward to the 88E’s dawn (it’s somewhat over due) and goodbye to the dark hour of 2020 and all the individual challenges that has posed for everyone.

10.56 - suspect it might be more related to covid-19 vaccine roll out and hopefully the end to this nasty situation plus a Brexit deal of sorts (I'm sure it'll have its drawbacks but better than nothing).
Whatever, reflecting a bit more value to shareholders, especially in there run up to a drill, is always welcome. A higher baseline running into a successful drill will have a positive compounding effect.
Just need the well to work...

Wishing everyone a Merry Christmas.
Lots to look forward to early in 2021 and wishing success to everyone as reparation for the challenges of 2020.

15.02 yeah..don’t waste your time listening to anything a broker says! Lol

14.14 - as I said, brokers are not smart, they are the lowest form of finance. Their jobs is a conduit to match buyers and sellers...they know nothing about probability , geophysics, petrophysics and arguably finance. Their thoughts are literally worth nothing, believe them at your own cost. I get more coherent analysis and balance intellectual financial advice from my African grey parrot....

17.50 - I also have a lot of Aussie friends and I would put anything past them...

17.50- I extracting the Michael...but thanks for taking me seriously lol

15.03 - depends on your perspective...throw a tinny on the barby and you’ll be right cobba lol

12.24 - ha ha...well if that’s the case I better change to the other channel and tote down 88e views lol.

Now, be gone and and enjoy Christmas.
I’m looking forward to the Christmas films, especially Home Alone...which this year is a documentary lol

08.59 - The Market are not mysterious rocket scientists, especially at this level. Yes there’s supply and demand impact but also a fair amount of none reconcilable influences. I think a better reflection of probability perception is what Industry believes and is willing to support through funding options. If CoS is the equivalent of the optionally in derivatives, then OIP is the intrinsic value. Therefore I’m happy to wait till there is some intrinsic value that way the markets interpretation of CoS of future exploration will have less influence.
And I don’t speak for anyone apart from myself.
We’ll find out about Peregrine, seebee and hrz in time. You are more than welcome to your opinion and if. Had the same opinion I’d be the same and not be invested, however I don’t therefore I do have exposure here. Equally this is why I don’t have exposure to pantheon, I’m not confident enough in talitha or why there hasn’t been a targeted FO. Of course you’ll have a different opinion and that right there makes a market. All the best.

18.57 - I think we’d agreed that CoS is an educated guess and whilst a poor CoS might put an investor off, a good CoS doesn’t necessarily mean guaranteed success. However once drill it’ll always be binary.
Hope it’s a 1 for Talitha and definitely a 1 for Merlin

21.08 - thinking the same thing.

11.43
Has been good to trade thoughts on the current situation - It appears it is possible to have in-depth and robust discussions without insulting or demeaning alternative views.
I try to avoid chucking numbers around based on feel. Taking a 50% best guess wouldn't be my thoughts. Chances are the estimates have been made on the conservative side anyway therefore if it works you're more like to get a >100% of expectation and if not then probably <50 % / an unworkable result.
The info you're looking for at Seebee will only be available (at the very earliest) once Charlie 2 is drilled which is c. 12 months and an FO away at the moment. I can't see how this cold be produced before the next drill
I do like the idea of Peregrine success and Charlie-2 100% WI but Im not sure thats how DW would play it. But with a decent contingent resource at Peregrine that might make that option available for consideration at least, I just don't know... feels a long way away given the current share price and funding obligations.
And equally, good luck Rabito79

10.39 - Yeah its fair point, I got carried away, I'll keep it more focussed now I've got that out of my system...I think there's a spectrum in between your 0 and 1 binary analogy but we do still need to at least meet the target for success (once thats quantified)
Agree, this time of year with low vols and Christmas /year end its not reflective and may well offer some buying opportunities.