Member Info for Ddraig

09.26
As I said yesterday I’ll keep this salient my to 88E.
It’s acknowledged that icewine 2, winx and initially Charlie haven’t worked out but it appears you deem shareholder value as share price appreciation, arguably not so, the data gathered and further interpretation / understanding does create value that may not be reflected in the share price at a given time. For instance charlie1 and the seebee. However understanding it better, and on a successful redrill, the share holder value would then be more reflective in the share price.
Ha ha...I’ve had the misfortunate to deal with capital market brokers for 20 years and I can tell you right now a vast majority are more Delboy than Stephen Hawkins! But if you want to believe they have massive empirical intelligence, knock yourself out. Out of turn I would also address your reference to the forward oil curve and HRZ. This is the reason it’s not a priority at the moment. Saying we have 3bbo but the NPV Is little/nothing /negative...is not valuable. But oil prices change rapidly, look at pantheons presentation and with reference to the 10 year strip price a couple of months ago, that’s already gone for a burton...again from a long time in capital markets, if you take a snap shot of a forward curve and plot the result through time they will 100% not occur in reality, even in more stable underlyings never mind oil!
Going back to the pint above, and it is important, you say Charlie hasn’t been a success...I say the data has developed understanding to redrill a prospect but NOT reflected in the share price. Comparing a geological CoS and CoD for Torok which has turned out to be gas and condensate with a highly filled oil prospect, albeit tight, is irrelevant and historic. The only analysis here should be can the seebee work and drive a commercial OIP. The other analysis and information released on other attributes will be produced in sequence of priority at the right time.
If talitha fails or there’s a well issue. which I hope it doesn’t, that’s a huge hit to you over a majority of your prosperity in one go (not unlike Charlie to a certain extent) so that could see a similar market reaction...it’s a risk.
Please don’t mention Premier, they walked away as they didn’t get their P99 outcome, oil collapsed, their debt burden strangled them and they had to focus on survival. Bit like saying industry has snubbed your data and drill as you couldn’t secure an FO you were clearly targeting. That’s not the whole story so please extent us the same courtesy.
Anyway, your spud 25th jan...we’ll be watching.

Didn't finish th e final points - we have reinterpreted the data against the core samples and from that the independent, conservative, resource analysis with respect to the Seebee. Thats the basis of the FO negotiations, what more is required for the market at this point? I'm sure there will be other technical data for the industry in a data room but that would be lost on most of us right now. Don't kid yourself, the market gave 88E a shoeing (75-80%0 on the initial Charlie 1 results and whilst the further analysis has proven prosperity to revisit, we haven't got to anywhere near to pre Charlie 1 levels (incorporating dilution) never mind what the share price would have been if there had been the initial recognition it was successful. Thats the way BS financial markets work, this is why the whole name of the game is to transgress AIM - get out of the one sided Dragons Den!
I agree there is benefit in highlighting benefits to a successful Talitha drill and that has started with a recent RNS, this will be enhanced when the analysis of our data allows plus by then the drill results. However you don't want to be seen as overly trying to generate value from other work, it has to take second place to your own prospects. Also remember its a double edged sword - promote the Talitha prospect in our acreage and it fails naturally could be seen as a reduction in 88E's prosperity in the central leases, which may not be the total story.
Going back to my comment above, unfortunately you'd like to think that peregrine being a 20% exposure would cap out the fall at 20%, in reality it would be far worse given at the current time it looks like closer to 50% of the conventional prospective targets (if you include Harrier deep) therefore the magnitude would be 50% plus IMO just because thats the way bottom feeders work. I'm going into this with my eyes wide open, as unpalatable as that outcome would be. They might argue it is another nail in the wider north slope prosperity coffin. However if Peregrine, Tabitha and Charlie 2 work, the blended adjoining of the underlying plays and systems start to link up (the super basin theory) and that really does kick the doubters in the balls and it'll run away like Usain Bolt...lol

other priorities would mute the message and under value its impact, especially given the challenges this year, the unknown impact to certain industries/global economy and subdued oil price environment.
This is the business aspect, release, grab attention and focus one step at a time on the most relevant opportunities to provide best value (which can be greater or lessor purely on timing), be prudent and don't over extend and ensure you highlight the risk profile accurately so in sub optimal outcomes doors are not firmly closed.
Enough rambling for one day...lol

19.23
Rabito79 I think the 88E members have been quite patient so whilst I found your take on Pantheon very interesting, this will be the last post for now as I'm sure most would prefer this to be 88E specific.
I think you've hit the nail on the head actually - what more could we expect? Until its drilled its theory. The chances are that reality will be different (whether that be better or worse) as geophysics, petrophysics and seismic appear to be what are 'statistics' to politics or finance...interpretation to fit your hypothesis/angle/desire. Not saying they're not valid, just saying they are a skewed best guess and reality over time, proves them inaccurate (again either under value or over state).
You are correct, I don't think you have much less data than Charlie-1 and look how that turned out...good in the end but the good bits are not the bits proposed as good before the drill. Notwithstanding I sincerely hope your actual outcome is closer to your hypothesis, again as that helps 88e directly and, more generally, the wider north slope development.
1 comment I would make between the companies...imagine in reality Panethon's acreage transpires to be more prospective than 88E's....The companies appear to be like Apple and Microsoft. Steve Jobs was always the better computer scientist but Bill Gates was the better business man. 88E have had more challenging drill results but have been drilling year on year plus remain operating, unlike GBP that over stretched and couldn't generate the interest to continue to bank roll...which obviously is now pantheon's benefit. We have secured a takeover and FO within 6 months whereas Pantheon have been engaged in an FO process for c.9 months which didn't occur (maybe thats by design and if Talitha works then of course that'll be the better business move). Business is about attention, focus and interest...even if it doesn't go as planned it's the story, the journey
That leads on to your other points. We are drilling Peregrine in a few weeks, specifically Merlin, attention, focuss and interest is pin pointed at that. Harrier is there but potentially to double up a good Merlin (time/weather dependant) or as an insurance policy for bad Merlin. Charlie -2 and everything to do with that, such as coherently defining P&P, further resource analysis (unsure regarding the flow analysis mentioned) but any other lab/data prework is for post Peregrine and running parallel to the FO process for the drill in 2022. HRZ detailing may be later 2021 or through 2022 depending on reinterpretation of the fairway given the confirmation results from Charlie1 (I doubt any lease surrender would materially impact the scale of the HRZ as I would imagine the lease wouldn't be surrendered for that reason alone..and ensuring a contagious prospect) and the FO negotiations. Those negotiations will obviously have dependent facets such as oil price environment. Releasing updated 'good news' on the HRZ when there are a number of o

15.08 - I have been here for a fair while but you’ve still lost me with the cryptic clue lol.

14.29 - I’d be lying if I said I was sorry!
Yes, more will inevitably turn up, probably an increasing number into the drill period

F*ing auto correct, why would a Brits need Americans to spell and grammar correct them!!!

06.41 Rabito79
The confidence is evident nor and I should imagine thats in no small way due to Bob Rosenthal's continued involvement and the energy and believe from eSeis. Thats not a criticism, you definitely need to have confidence in your own proposal. Both you From and I accept some of the technical geophysics weren't apparent in this presentation but I am going to check out the March presentation.
All in, its a good drill and opportunity to have and I wish them all the best for a successful drill and hoping they execute to total depth with no bore/weather issues this time.
The 'know it all comment' was actually a bit more specific to them saying they always would have deduced the Torok would have been gas, came across as stating the obvious in hindsight, might have been my misunderstanding. However I didn't misunderstand their appraisal of 88e's geology which I just didn't think was necessary, particularly as Bob admitted he hadn't reviewed the independent research in any depth. Its fine to be positive of your geology but unnecessary, he should have stayed focussed and not put views out of a neighbour and someone you might have to work with in the future in quite am amateurish way when completely unnecessary, but it's a small point.
The FO situation will only become evident over time, if the well works it'll be seen as a master stroke, if not this it'll be a confidence and funding burden as 88e have suffered. As I said, I don't know what actually happened or what the decisions were, whether offers were made but they looked 'too expensive' in terms WI sacrifice, whether offers couldn't be actioned in time for this season, whether there were no offers, or the data made it too good to let anyone else in...thats history now. You're drilling it alone, 100% discovery upside or 100% funding downside.
On the NPV the savings were reasoned in relation to the geographical location (road, current infrastructure etc). Also if they have worked the NPV, them surely that must have made P+P assumptions, why not just state those?

That all said I hope it works.....and 50% of it is in our acreage lol...bit seriously, there are obvious economies of scale so the more companies like 88e and pantheon discover the greater the wider prospect looks to industry, whether thats in a sell up or production scenario. The central leases definitely have more value to contribute to both, we just need to understand them better.
Will be interesting how Peregrine unfolds, apart form the Winx excursion, the is a different well away from the more heavily data sourced icewine acreage.

12.18
You have a more patient nature than me.

09.37
But I did say volumes have drop off so it might be a slightly lower price but not the liquidity depending on your investment amount to execute without shifting the market higher... <700k share traded today, could you buy 20k share..yes...could you buy 20m share...probably not and almost certainly not at the current price
I dont think you’re genuine anyway so I’ll let you crack in with whatever strategy you think is right for you.

09.25
I don’t make share price predictions.
I’m invested for the medium to long term so over the course of:
The Merlin (possibly harrier) drill(s)
Charlie 2 FO and drill in 2021
Yukon aggregation possibly with Jade energy et al
HRZ farm out
I see the price higher than it currently is

05.57
I’m not going to worry about price movements right now, it’s end of year and volumes have dropped off. Until they return in jan, maybe early feb. I think the price will be a bit misleading

Average - acreage

14.04 - that’s a really good synopsis Brom and I am familiar with the story as far back as GBP although wasn’t away of some of the politics/corporate discussions had/may have been had...
It seems like they are heading in the right direction after a number of years (especially getting the drill in the ground again and streamlining their average), wish them the best (as it should help us) but not sure it’s for me, felt a bit over sell and not sure what to make of no FO (ie a bit of a snub by the industry? or the market was happy to support their fund raising to go it alone) either way there’s still a fair bit of risk to get involved directly, happy to see if we get any free geographical benefit in a success event.

As it’s a slow time of year I decided to watch the Pantheon October webinar as the Talitha drill does have connotations for 88e. I’m sure Rabito will set me straight if any other these comments are out of line lol.. it’s long but worth a watch (eSeis stuff is interesting) and relating to DW’s acknowledgement of it’s importance for 88e
As a word of warning...
- Story sounds good - a very bullish presentation but I was a little put off by the lack of cautionary statements regarding the risk. You listen to it and it’s made to sound like a dead cert.
- they were also pretty dismissive of the geology in 88’s acreage to their south, the Charlie 1 updated results/analysis and a bit of a ‘know it all’ attitude to the concept that Torok would have been gas prone.
- we know they are going it alone...lack of firm FO interest, timing too short or too good to give away...time will tell.
I would like to see 88e’s interpretation of the 2D we have at the boundary to see what a success there might look like for 88e

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LFnF5MabqPo

Extent into our acreage *of the Talitha drill

Guessing everything is winding down for Christmas. Schools might close early and many have holiday remaining so that wind down might be a bit earlier.
Don’t expect much from 88e but may get some details as to 88’s seismic interpretation (2D only) of any extent into our average. Naturally there should be some drill prep progress from pantheon but for that to have any value to 88e we’d need that view as to our potential geographical WI

16.15 - I'm not saying they wouldn't have to CR to cover projected annual operational costs etc but in theory they could pull the trigger and move to Harrier (although not prudent). I understand the company needs funds and therefore CR's are a necessary evil so I don't say this as a negative comment but in that case they would probably look to raise in the run up to Merlin. Which is what you're saying. Only thing I would add if I were DW, if the run up is a bit flat, then the more prudent route would be to drill merlin and keep the remaining funds to operate the company well into 2021. But we can guess, flat or not, efficient or not, if we look at historics, the raise will likely happen Jan.
Isn't N14 common to Merlin and Harrier? the areas optically overlapped in the previous information so not a surprise. So 4 prospects in total of which Merlin hits 3...not bad efficiency wise (albeit I'd suggest N14 isn't optimally located given it looks more a target of Harrier)
Not 100% sure what you mean in relation to the Yukon reference but suspect you're implying if its successful you're expecting only one layer therefore not economical to develop on a standalone - look to other discovery owners in the area (COP) to package up? Could be...butj hard to say at this point, need a lot of green lights before thats a consideration.

14.49 - I agree harpoon-2 will have added some derisking but it’s still an extrapolation risk on 2d. Willow has, what, 10 appraisal wells and a further 4 drills were planned for 2020. If 88e have other things to spend their time and money on, such as flow testing a successful Merlin, then there’s an argument to wait for COP and their deeper pockets to do some derisking at Harpoon for us. Whether that’s 2021 or 2022 (we’ll probably have Charlie-2 to keep us occupied next year so it’s not vital to try Harrier for the sake of not having an empty drill season.
First things first...Merlin.
BR

13.33...that’s fantastic...but absolutely your choice lol