RE: Overreaction!22 Jan 2021 12:02
From a logical perspective:
Our permit application was already in and the company is in process to getting the rig to the site. Therefore this isn't a new application and would be a harsh application of policy with little warning. So predominantly I'd suggest it will go ahead.
If it doesn't there are 2 aspects.
1. its a temporary 60 day permit block (for new applications so realistically that means if you haven't applied, then this year is finished). I'd say thats empty politics as anyone wanting to drill this year would already have applied and there's not much going on this year anyway) so really it gives the government 6-9 months to iron out its position before the application for 2022 drills and who knows what that will look like as Biden will be, like, 126 years old by then lol
2. Will there be a longer cessation of permits going forward, thats the bigger question as it would call into question the value of buying XCD / Umiat and the prosperity. Remember that also affects CP and others, as mentioned that will generate a lot of political heat from much more substantial players than us.
AMWR - track 29 will be called into question hence DW stating that that was bid on to gain assess to pools extending from Yukon which 88E believe they can reach horizontally so, again, possible that there is a strong argument that we can still explore that prospect. If this was revoked then we'll be back where we started with Yukon so of limited impact (assuming Yukon can aggregate and be allowed to develop)
So, if the new admin is a little short sighted and they stop Peregrine we will take a hit for that and the possible future impact of this administration, uncertainty. However we will quickly move on to our push on Charlie-2
Remember Alaska state will be lobbying hard to keep status quo (for revenue / future revenue and to a degree face) and the outcome of this will not see any material drop in US consumption in the short term so they would have to explain the future reduction in tax revenue / royalties and lease rentals over the increased / future increase in oil imports meaning the US economy would be more exposed to oil price fluctuations whilst trying to recover from COVID without the offset of the afore mentioned revenues.
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