Member Info for Ddraig

18.06 - as you wish but you’re still looking at a post talitha risked valuation of £2.59, that steep even according to the brokers...and you’re basing it on delineation as a sales package. Could spike higher but ultimately I think it would take some times to get even close to those levels as they’ll still be some risk associated with it.

18.55 - the order does have some ambiguity and therefore risk so it’s worth being comfortable that until the US clearly give us the green light we might get caught out.
But agreed, any uncertainty and the scare mongers will do there best to amplify concern and that will naturally drive some to sell, which is their choice. Just frustrating. Also when you look at volumes bought and sold there is always a binary shift by the market makers that seals the revised market levels.

18.50 - agreed. Whilst the AIM knee jerk -25% is an overstatement of the risk, there is still a risk (I think maybe 20-30%) our drill is classified are not underway and therefore stalled for 60 days...which as we know means cancelled for this drill season. In which case there would be an additional drop from here. Probably back to 0.30’s.

17.59 - J.C.... i’m not sure what your point is, the equity and this trading of the company is raised in the parent level, the subsidiaries in this instance are irrelevant.
BEX is a private company therefore not publicly traded, they don’t operate nor trade in the same way therefore are not impacted with the same rules.
Might be worth taking a look at public vs private company structures 101.

17.00 - do you think DW had a choice? I think not given the tighter ASX rules
17.26 - do you think DW wants volatility in SP in the run up to a drill? Probably not so again, most likely under ASX rules he had no option.
If it wasn’t dual listed you wouldn’t be any the wiser as there wouldn’t be any trading. ASX would haunt, when it reopens either we could drill or not. If we could, price broadly similar, if not, crash.
I think the rules are there where something materially changes that could impact the SP to stop volatility, speculation and, to a lessor extent, avoid binary SP lives that could hit stop loss barriers of investors have them in place.

16.49 - as I said before if we can drill peregrine and track 29....but if new leases don’t become available then these leases should have increased value through scarcity, and that is compounded if you find commercial oil.

16.34 - I sincerely hope you’re somewhere near the mark but I have seen you shoot others down for far less extravagant calculations. Lol

09.39 - we all know how tight timing was to contemplate drilling Merlin and Harrier in a Merlin success event so any cessation of operations progress will make this even less likely. If they have stopped snow road construction then 3-6 days delay doesn't sound much but where timing is marginal then I think it may be the straw that breaks the camel's back. Alternatively there is a rational argument that they should drill both whatever (even if Merlin looks compelling) because there may be induced uncertainty regarding whether they would get a license to revisit Harrier now Polar Bear Biden is on the case.

09.34 - 100% agree. Chances are given operators have commenced and application was prior to Biden's amendment, we have a better probability of drill approval. The ANWR lease is less certain. Rushed granting prior to Trump's departure and clearly a lot of political pressure given the bidding was so thin, particular from any larger US companies. But if you interrupt it at face value then maybe we can keep track 29 with any future lease sales off the table now.

AIM4 - as a landlord, HMRC will ruin you long before you have to worry about hydrogen boilers! lol

17.59 - I accept that. Its just its always nagged at me - hydrogen is the most abundant element in the universe, hydrogen fuel cell tech has been around for a bit (I think it was mid 1960's when GM produced the first hydrogen fuel cell) and, from a home heating perspective, its less dangerous given you don't run the risk of CO related poisoning and it doesn't give off CO2...but still the world decided that finding Jurassic organic material, digging it up, processing it, transporting it and killing the planet in the process was the better option...there must be a bloody good reason why everyone in the world has been taking the BoJo option for the last 100 years (ie the one that doesn't make rational sense)

I think you guys are missing my point. I accept there are many advantages to using hydrogen but there are a number of challenges yet to be solved with the production, storage and logistics/infrastructure. And then there's the politics, lets face it if Bojo had the option of something sensible or something ridiculous....you know which he'd pick....
He wasn't to popular at school and that is coming through now he has the power to bully....such as banning gas boilers and therefore forcing people to find alternatives....lets hope its not electric - firstly they are rubbish and expensive to heat homes and secondly with the electric dawn we are going to have generation capacity challenges anyway....the guy's a fool.

17.07 - so begs the question of it that’s simple...why is no one doing it right now?

15.01 - Not quite that simple, hydrogen (H2) reacts with everything (as it can act as an oxidising and reducing agent) and obviously highly explosive to boot.

regardless of what eventually happens this, you'll see some decent buys late in the day and certainly some next week. its the same old AIM knee jerk - anything uncertain or not BETTER than forecast and it disproportionally tanks...anything absolutely Stella and it has a jump up then retrace.....not sure how you rebase your share price in this environment.

14.01 - I agree but others that have a negative look at what will happen with this permit are likely to sell. I personally don't as this would have a large and detrimental effect on industries opinion of Biden that could cause him problems for his tenure (whether thats 4 or 8 years....assuming he makes it that long, he's no spring chicken.)
But lets be clear, the share price will take a significant hit from here if the permit is not granted and not only for the fact of missing this drill, would we be able to drill going forward in this are, what about track 29, even implications for State land (political pressure).
As I said, this feels like its a headline grabbing appeasement to the environmentalists that support him.
are there any drills expected that haven't already got application in? I don't think so as many like CP have bypassed this year with capital expenditure reductions die to COVID low oil, If they let the inflight permits drill what will this have actually achieved? Nothing material, but a headline grabber and a future shot over the bow.

There is a stronger chance they revoke the ANWR leases in my mind, they were rushed in/ they were executed late in Trumps reign, weren't supported by industry or finance sectors and were controversial. Moreover they would only be a chink for 88E's Yukon so we'd deal with that.

12.57 - The amount of money the government has pumped into steel production to keep it afloat is inefficient...I'd suggest just like the banking system, it now owned by the government and we all know what a good job they do of running things! Ta Ta lol

12.38 - May well be and I think this comment is tongue in cheek.... where is the steel being made? presumably China lol. We don't make steel in any material capacity anymore and moreover the damage that EV cars do is huge.
you still need to produce the electricity
the precious metals needed for the battery are toxic and involve large transportation costs
and thats before we get to the elephant in the room...recycling of the batteries after expiration.

I get the fact we should be planning for a world without oil but there are a number of steps to achieving that and pushing everyone to interim technologies that are probably as damaging is futile.
Solve the efficient nuclear fusion problem and safe hydrogen storage and we might be in business...

12.34 - Which makes no sense as Deep Water Horizon caused far more environment damage than anything in Alaska in recent times. Also deep water drilling is by far and away more risky than onshore. If something goes wrong you're in all heaps of trouble. As NASA told Obama when he asked them to help sort out the Deep Water Horizon mess....Drilling in 1,000 meters of water makes putting a man on the moon look like childs play!

12.14 - America is not better or worse than anywhere else, its about making noise...far too many politicians are career politicians or have roots embedded in PR (no such thing as bad publicity)...I heard BoJo had agreed plans for a new coal mine in the UK...well thats progressive lol