Member Info for Ddraig

16.52. Thanks olddad. Maybe if I explained it this way. People are welcome to consider my views but I’m not saying them for that reason as I’m not trying to persuade anyone and I’m always happy for people to do well, unless they achieve that by foul means, but would like them to enjoy their success having known they have made a good decision by themselves.

17.26 - my problem wasn’t with Brom my issue was with the comment (not yours):
“If you are, "taking the Mean at 670mb as a guide"
I've news, for you it might seem bad. There is zero chance of seeing that in this drill.”
But while we’re on the subject of accuracy
“ If you do the maths it’s likely they will stick with testing Harrier”
Assuming you mean Merlin?

I don’t think even the oil search reference is that valid but people can use what they want...I personally haven’t given any opinion on what any oil could be sold for because I simply don’t know ( as no ones else does despite their opinions) and, oh yeah, it’s not found yet.
I do agree, all of the pre drill numbers (volmetrics or B/E) won’t be what actually happens which is why I find talking about it somewhat irrelevant. I’m saying take whatever number you fancy just understand they are of limited use.
Let’s hope talitha’s numbers are closer to the truth than HRZ or Charlie’s

And just so no one misunderstands me, I might be completely wrong and neither drill results provides any oil. It’s my decision and if it goes wrong it’s my responsibility to reconcile. And anyone coming back reiterating any of these pre drill discussions will mean nothing to me but they are more than welcome to say whatever they want.

13.51 - between you and I know a little bit about probability and risk and hear what you're saying. Heres the thing, and this is a function of the modern world, no one really assess risk properly anymore. People will give answers on a 'conservative' basis (which actually means a worst case for a given range) as they don't want to be held responsible or sued, hence the disclaimers - they adopt in investment banking. The lawyers basically utilise flowery corporate/legal language implying that 'we might be wrong, we might be lying and/or its not our responsibility if you choose use these numbers...thanks America. Therefore the 'Best' will be on the conservative end of the range within the Best assessment ie each stochastic input will be defined on the lower end of the spectrum, the more inputs the greater the negative compounding.
Anyway, its on 2D so realistically even the gross range (covering U1 to U3) isn't statically robust.
Good luck all.

13.07 - and for completeness as I’ve always said, the actually number will be different to any of these, good or bad, so we’ll all be wrong. It’s more a test for who’s less wrong.... and if you can’t see that then you’re a DW (and i don’t mean Dave Wall)

13.07 - I’ve news for you...I’m not interested in your opinion. Your welcome to it but makes zero difference to how I choose to think about this.

10.52 - absolutely...and as I said right at the start, everyone is welcome to their own opinion, I’m in this for me primarily, not some socialist crusade to protect or add value to others. If people listen to my view then that’s there choice and if they don’t...that’s their choice ;-)

22.08 - Thanks Brom good to know...

18.53 - You take the U2, I'm taking the Mean at 670mb as a guide...and as you well know, neither of us will be right once results are in.
I also don't agree with you regarding the drill. Merlin is first and if they find some thing then of course they'll flow test that first, if they don't they'll move to Harrier swiftly. Please tell me where its stated that Harrier is only there for Merlin fail contingency and if Merlin hits something then Harrier is off the table, I must have missed that. But will they have enough time to drill and test Merlin and drill (maybe test) Harrier. It's not impossible but agree its tight. Remember spud is reasonably early (mid to late Feb) based on the fact snow roads need to be built. The drills are shallow so quick drill times compared to a Charlie or Talitha. Rest depends on the weather characteristics.
Again, I think there are too many variables to be talking about commercial value in $ terms right now...conjecture on your part and I can't say for sure its nonsense...but it is lol.
Ha ha...wondered if you get the 1bn or $9bn reference, at $9 a barrel you think it's against reserves? you should work for Scotland Yard with that deductibility...it probably came with a bow wrapped round it. As we don't know what the breakevens were on that deal and we can't know what the breakevens are on this till we find it, then there's oil price, a buyer may have had other commercial drivers to apply to the deal, competition factors etc etc etc...basically I'm saying its unknown and like comparing apples and astronauts.
See this is the problem with banding numbers around, they need to be aligned or adjusted to be like or like terms and even then, you don't know as I don't so let's agree on that instead.
Resistance, support, blaa blaa, chartism really is the palm reading of capital markets...however I don't see 60 as having any material significance for 88e apart from some weak psychological boundary (its a different big figure). Regardless if the driver/expectation is strong enough then the market will rise, thats why I'm surprised, genuinely, pantheon is where it is. Whatever you'll get some speculation as the drill is turning.

19.26 no problem and good luck.

17.36 - This is a pretty hairy investment for those that have experience in the market, have followed the company and understand a bit about the oil market. I wouldn't have this at the top of a newcomers list but thats your decision to make.

17.20 - It's possible but certainly not what's proposed by the estimates. I'm not going to argue with you as far as I can see this is personal opinion and conjecture...which is your right but I see very little to support it.
I think merlin and harrier are a crap shoot on 2D but the Nanushuk topset is prolific. If it works I personal believe it'll be more than 50-100. Not sure you can attribute them as equals especially as there have different analogs / degree of geological independence. I'd be surprised if they both came in but Merlin would do.
I think you misinterpreted what I said, If Talitha works there is a significant driver for 88 to revisit and potentially upgrade work on the central leases. I personally see value in Talitha but not company changing for us. I just hope the drill gets all the info thats intended unlike Alkaid (weather events) and pipeline state (aged drill with poor bore condition and collapsed Kaparuk zone I believe).
This is the problem with todays world, everyone believes information is indiscreet but it doesn't surprise me that sometimes updates don't make it into comms when time is tight.
The share price is doing okay at the moment and we're all thankful for that. What I am surprised about is how little pantheon has moved. They must spud within 2 weeks and apart from a little blip towards 50, its remained in the low 40's. Just an observation as I would have thought it would have seen some rise even if that was just against a more positive oil market and the aspirations to pump first oil in H2 this year.
I never comment on prices for proven oil in the ground...seems pointless till you have it but also I'm sure I heard somewhere that 1bn barrels in the Permian went for $9bn and thats shale...deal values seem a bit bilateral to worrying about.

Thanks for the feedback everyone. Sounds like its affecting us all so hopefully means they can fix it quickly for us all.
Maybe someone forgot to open a new internet account at the new offices lol.

Has anyone else stopped getting email alerts of RNSs from 88E? Last one I had was the 20th Dec 20?

13.13 Diolch yn fawr and prynhawn da hefyd

13.13 - yeah I understand the headline developments for historic chats on here and charts , I think what I mean is that I didn't invest back then as I wasn't searching for this type of opportunity therefore didn't know too much about these plays but even if I did, whilst I do have a high risk appetite, that may have been a bit early for me. I think you'd have to ask your question to someone who did and is still around, like Mickey et al. But I guess your comments in a round about way support what I'm saying regarding have a number of ponies to bet on even if the first of this set doesn't come in.
But I do echo your sentiment in that a solid find will materially change the company and I think this time, in difference to the time period you speak of, will facilitate the forward development with a stronger hand to retain as much WI as possible....which in turn perpetuates a far greater compounding affect as the company develops these opportunities.
I've said this before, I think Merlin and Harrier are the most important drills to date for 88E. If it goes well, see above, if it doesn't then I think people need to consider that the company may have to look at alternative strategies to continue with the development plan.
Let's pray that the Nanushuk topset yields for us as it has for so many others.

11.56 and with respect to Merlin and harrier ‘tomorrow’ was only 6 months and ‘today’ is in 6-7 weeks

12.14 - ha...Rome wasn’t built in a day/ you have to start somewhere...that’s a bit like saying to a toddler, great you can walk, I’m assuming you’re going to enter a decathlon next week lol. I wasn’t around then so don’t know how leases sales were packaged up, nor what work was done on the land (seismic wise) before they had a bit more positivity regarding the scale of the lead so I can’t really comment.
When you say ONLY 100k acres? Do you think that is small? Look at pantheon, they have c180,000 acres and they consider themselves (quite rightly) a large acreage holder even compared to some of the oil majors/tier 1s. Therefore I’d suggest 100,000 acres isn’t that small but regardless we have more now and that provides us with a diversified (by play type) scheduled portfolio. IMO

10.21 - I’m aware as all others there’s no jam today but without this kind of planning and development there’ll certainly won’t be any tomorrow either. It’s a trade of exiting a larger size , presumably, less prospective land to gain a lessor size but more prospective land. I suspect a net reduction in rental which it sounds like we agree.
I think the vision is obviously to hit oil in the imminent drill (of course) but even if we do, share price will rise but once the dust settles it’ll slip somewhat. If you have opportunities for each possible drill windows it will somewhat minimise that.
And heaven forbid, if oil isn’t present at Merlin/harrier we will still have a solid forward schedule albeit the share price will be discounted in the interim.
1. Merlin / harrier
2. Icewine seebee
3. Icewine Torok
4. Yukon
5. Central lease (Alpha) with hope of derisking with Talitha drill
6. HRZ farm out.
This is what forward planning looks like for the next 3-5 years with the goal for ratcheting up the share price with each success (yes I appreciate we definitely are due and need one to slam dunk to get the ball rolling).
You can’t be a one trick pony or have a small acreage position where if you do find oil, potentially a decent proportion may be bequeathed neighbours.
This is the nature of the beast. I understand this isn’t for everyone so if you don’t like the heat, get out the kitchen

08.25 - jam tomorrow? Do you believe business can wake up in the morning, decide they want a bit more land by existing land and then buy it the day they want to drill? Lol...
I think it’s called business development and cessation planning and from a regulatory perspective they have to communicate this to the shareholders at point in time.
So that said...how would you do this differently?

08.37 - totally agree, we will be let lower on rentals and finally this might allow Yukon to achieve viability .