Member Info for Ddraig

14.03 - Whilst we live in hope, I think 0.6 today would be a stretch...spread is wide and whilst the permit was essential this wouldn't normally make much difference to SP...in a normal year

14.15 - you're welcome to your opinion even if I don't share it. I do however agree there is state land but the point I was floating was the total (Fed, State and otherwise), you are restricting an area of prospectivity in the region - the NPRA (24m acres) and ANWR (20m acres) less any lease acreage already granted (which we'll understand going forward if this can still be operated) .... we were just discussing, kicking around some factual observations, I don't think there was an exhibition of touchiness lol

but this is a lot better defined drill than Winx ever was...

Yeah, I know the Winx background. No one benefits from unjustifiable moves (up or down) and fully appreciate that the result is ultimately all that matters so will be interesting to see what happens if the level remains the same over the next couple of weeks...

Isn't helping much...

Seems everything is a bit subdued here by that I mean share price. Even on a conservative estimate they must be at or over 50% to total depth but we don't know as operations updates are non-existent. They could make a bit more noise over one of the highest, if not highest, impact wells of 2021? C. 10 days till we might expect to hear first indications and this is just sliding sideways after a discounting in the last few weeks from mid 40's to mid 30's, seems odd there's very little momentum especially when you factor in the tight trading spread...is this normal of Pantheon?

12.07 (11.14)- I think what you're saying here is permit application 12 Jan, SLA 30 days so 11 Feb, actually granted on 29th Jan...sounds a healthy margin shorter than their own maximum process timing.

11.14 - Time will tell but I think we can agree the value hasn't gone down with the restriction in supply, of land...unless you've got zero understanding of economics. It may be more an access question. If you can prove value of assets in these areas, where a non-leaseholder can't lease land then they have limited options but to try to acquire the leases from existing holders or buy the company. Let's just say they may command a premium in any transaction negotiations.
As for the Peregrine permit, lighter rig, no ice roads and ultimately shallow less impacted/technical drill, doesn't sound like it would be more work, in fact sounds the opposite. the challenge would have been the get the higher up signatory comfortable that proper procedures had been completed and to wear the risk/decision in the context of Biden's decree.

10.05 - Interesting, echoes what I've been saying for a couple of weeks...
"By stopping the issuance of new leases, it means any existing leases and permits instantly become more valuable."

Samuelcolt - it is done because it’s done...

11.22 - ?

10.54 - possibly but they could equally already have it during US Friday PM but Aus and London markets closed so we could receive the confirmation on either Aus open (late Sunday night UK) or UK open Monday morning.

11.36 - are there considerable short positions in 88e?

10.06 - Interesting you say that

22.21 - hmm you rockhopper

21.09 - thanks. I’ve seen a few that at this early stage say similar things.
I think Biden needed to grab headlines and appease the electoral support from the environmentalists but grabbing a headline making it stick legally and/or legislatively will be far more difficult and time consuming. But it is an uncontrollable risk which an administration can certainly through road blocks in to slow development progress. Then there’s the pressure they can apply politically to state owned land.
I’m not saying this to be negative but it will feature again and throughout Bidens term. Best outcome is they keep it to new leases and not existing. However there may be other factors that constraint taking these measures further, namely jeopardising economic recovery / development particularly as the US has ‘fragile’ relationships with a number of the major oil producing countries...
To sum it up....it’s complicated

18.42 - from what I’ve read at the current time the experts apparently are assuming that leases taken up in advance will not be affected so their understanding is it relates to sale of new leases.
I definitely hope that for 2 reasons, firstly existing lease holders can continue to explore those leases and the leases themselves become more scarce so the value of the lease could be worth more (if they are transferable other than through company acquisition). There would naturally be a legal challenge if Biden extended his position to leases already sold and is a concern but I’m surmising that that would require legislation going through congress which would be tricky and elongated. However he could just try to stop drill permits in the interim (again there would be a legal challenge to that).
Time will tell but it’s certainly something to be aware of developments for all explorers on Fed land.

12.55 - Thanks MScGeo, this could be a positive for our leases depending whether they eventually stretch further and attempt to undermine existing lease agreements. If you want the land then you may have no choice but to look at acquisition from existing lease holders...we'll just have to see.

12.27 - This echoes what I believe. Whilst there is always a risk its looking at what evidence there is in mitigation and making an assessment of said risk. In this case given who is involved, what they have publicly indicated, from that what action others have taken and certain circumstantial positives the risk is subordinated and relatively small in fact I'd say it's the same risk as awaiting approval for any permit in the last few years - that being very limited if you've conducted yourself correctly and have the experience to understand what is required under the given control framwork (88e historically satisfy both of these)
The world has forgotten how to determine risk, everyone seems to try to remove or scenario ever little risk, there's no proportionment anymore, if there is a risk they all appear to be viewed as being equal and they are just not. Its saying crossing quiet suburban road is the same as standing in the centre of the M6, your risk is you'll get run over but one is far more likely than the other.

10.52 - Your welcome to agree with others, but I’ll become how I respond to others and no one else. As I said I’m perfectly calm.