Member Info for DC2007

Hi upside,

Thanks for your informed insights. I try and look long term and it concerns me how they will refinance/dispose of the £200m notes due in 2021. Improved margins are what's really needed here asap to bring the business back to stability. At least in the revenue, there is still the raw material for this. Atb

That's a healthy cash balance. Good luck with your increased stake. Are you especially knowledgeable about this sector or the company? Going against the tide (the market), I think one should have an edge, or it can turn into a disaster.

Atb

£45bn in the bank is extraordinary and unbelievable. Balance sheets of insurers don't read the same as other companies and the majority of these funds must be in escrow and unavailable to draw.

Does anyone have it? Can't find it in the usual press outlets.

The petition is the worrying thing for investors. Given the company is reliant on one brand, if that sours, then revenues plummet. Social media means these things can take hold and spread with incredible speed. They need to take corrective action now before the disease gets hold.

Disclosure: Whilst TED has been on a watchlist of mine for some time, I have no interest in it.

upside_umop,

Selling Magasin would provide a good chunk of cash to sort the debt and shape things for refinancing the notes due in summer '21. However, it's one the profitable parts of the business showing signs of growth in a difficult market. If Debs are a forced seller, you're right, £200m is not likely. The rest of the market must also disbelieve the idea that this equity is hiding a business worth that, otherwise it would be illogical for the mcap to be far less than half of it.

Debs have never said that they believe Magasin to be worth £Xm as far as I'm aware. The putative valuations are all paper talk and speculation. Unless they get a greater than expected offer, selling Magasin would be a mark of desperation to me.

Atb

G'day,

Pursuing the MA angle gives alternative reasoning just as credible: he's writing off his stake in Debs, but as little as two years ago, he was adding to it at 50p. So why put weight in his bear judgment now, when his bull judgment did not exactly pan out?

Your comments on an earlier dividend cut, controlling the debt (when SB took over it was coming down) and that Christmas could tip them into insolvency I do share. It's like the BOD were asleep at the wheel in 2017 - very frustrating to watch.

Atb

Rare to see this much of a swing in a bluechip in one day - it's gone +/- 7%!

Thanks for the reply Auson. Is there another source that has what shortracker omits to give the 2.4% you mention? Atb

That could come after Brexit depending on how the economy pans out. But until then, with all the uncertainty, I see this rattling around in the high teens until then, and not breaking £20.

Down more than a third in six months. That's a steep fall for a blue chip and a portent for rocky times ahead.

Special666,

Most recent large poll I know says otherwise - Leave wins only 46% of the vote.

Here is the link https://www.channel4.com/press/news/c4-survey-uk-would-vote-remain-eu-majority-54-46.

How's the BOE losing credibility? It's views are going to be carefully measured since they are so well scrutinised. If they say post Brexit might not the land of milk and honey, it's because they see that as a possible outcome.

Atb

KNIGELK..."you do realise for hundreds of years before 1973 the UK was not in the EU?"

Quite obvious since the EU has not existed for hundreds of years. We already do (well parliament does) make most of our own decisions. The idea that, outside of the EU, we'll be masters of our own destiny is fantasy. We'll continue to interact with the world from a weaker bargaining position. A whole generation will be left worse off. The consequences and scope of the action were not clear prior to the vote. Run that vote now and Remain would trounce Leave.

Atb

The prescient IC has been rating these a buy all the way from March 2017 at 359p. Could not understand the attraction at all at that price.

H-hi,

Can't put all the blame on politicians without considering the electorate that made the disastrous choice in June 2016. 52% odd of the vote made their bed but we all have to lie in it.

Best wishes with your increased stake. I'm a long term (10+yrs) holder here and concerned about the upcoming months. The recent sell off is in my opinion related to nervousness about Brexit deals. Even if a decent one materialises, the UK economy from March next year will be an unknown; I'm bearish on companies with UK revenues for this reason. Atb

Looks like profit taking and regression to a more realistic multiple.

They'd had some good feedback about their BF performance. Hope so too. Hasn't provided any fillip as yet for the SP...looking like a red day, only how much to be decided.

But for the Brexit cliff on the horizon, they otherwise look good. All the uncertainty around next March is enough to put me off them for the minute. Atb to holders and buyers.

Biggest concern for this has to be the new Mexican government. That was the cause of the sudden drop and the actions of the new administration alter Fresnillo's market value. I see the points Poker raises below as secondary to the political situation.