Member Info for DC2007

The 'massive rise' in bookings deserves a bit more comment. The ITV story is unclear which average is referred to when they say bookings over the weekend gone were expected 'double'. Double on what? The previous weekend? The same days as last year? Versus the average of all weekends over the year?

Applegarth adds to the mist by assuming this applies directly to TC and not to the industry in aggregate. Investors might do well to remember that the UK revenues for TC are a smallish proportion of the whole (c. £1.9bn on £9.6bn). They were down in 2018 from 17 too. The optimism is overdone - it's not like TC has suddenly become the only way to go on holiday for Brits.

Looking at this again and TC blamed hot weather in UK '18 for lower than usual bookings. But in the trade news (numerous links in the posts below), they say that now is the time - including Sunshine Saturday - when they secure most holiday bookings.

How then can 'poor performance' due to good UK weather be blameworthy? By then, most people would already have booked/actually been on their holiday. I think they're scapegoating for poor operations stretching back to this time last year.

Heading for +5/-20% in a single day. Hang on to your hats!

Does the huge increase in debt from the Reynolds acquisition not give longer term concern for anyone here?

Where do you get this from Jamie630? Shortracker shows no change since the New Year on their graph...

https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00B126KH97/

"I diversify, I don't sweat. Sweating means selling. Selling is almost always bad. 7% of companies get bankrupt or delisted. That's a statistic reality."

Like your response hodl. Can I ask where you get the 7% from?

I agree with you about diversification. There are some caveats though. If you don't care about an investment how do you manage a portfolio? Default of sufficient investments in a portfolio means an overall loss.

Unless I've misunderstood, you buy enough investments with the hope that the magnitude of the good outweighs that of the bad, such that this will generate an acceptable/target return.

Keen to hear more of your approach. ATB

The market is waiting for assurance of and visibility on solvency. That outlook should cause it to re-rate; it might land it in double figures. Until such news, it'll languish in penny-share territory.

ATB

Arrogant presumptions hodl. What I've read is okay but it concerns me in parts too. Yesterday, I read Next's recent accounts and reports; they are a model of clarity and plain speaking. There is no dressing and no attempt to obscure potential problems. Reason, logic and candour are abundant without any fluff. I'd look for this standard now before considering a company in the sector investible.

The CFO made prescient comments on earnings about 12 months before he left. He said things would only become really bad if profits came in near £30m - at the time they were far clear of this. Timely updates and reports are an implicit expectation of a PLC. Their emergence doesn't really mean anything; to parse the crucial information from the noise is key.

Better to sweat than underestimate the risk of equity investment as appears your wont.

It has to fall back longer term. The company has made a loss of £241m on revenues of £43bn over the past five years. Such dreadful performance does not warrant an equity valuation any higher.

Thanks for the link. Cautious is sensible with investments. It's the Guardian though and the scary part of the story is by far the most vague; I'm putting it down as flimsy journalism. ATB

Hi, which market watchers have forecasted this?

I'm looking at whether this has the legs to recover. But that reasoning is shaky applgarth. Your investment based on the
"reason is simple ...Tcg always recovers."

is alarmingly simplistic. It's says something was worth x in the past, so it should again be worth x in the future, even though it's fell to be currently 1/6x.

Do you have any reasons for investment other than this? I look at the tiny margins they have, disruption in the sector and their debt level and also that it's the second time in a few years the SP has collapsed. All of that means it is a risky investment.

Hope it works for those who bought in on the recent lows and that they allocated weight wisely.

FT said they were expected to update the market on the 10th Jan, not the 4th, which until I read that in the FT, was what I was expecting. FT might have got their dates wrong/confused the AGM with the update; or we might not get RNS about Christmas trading until later than first thought. Atb

Actually WGR, it won't be down tomorrow - Saturday comes after Friday. Your droll ramblings are tedious.

Why 2.2p bendog? What makes you so sure it will hit such a precise mark?

A Christmas miracle is bestowed upon us - at session's end, we're not in the red! Rejoice!

Where do you get 2.2p from bendog? It's very precise. Is it a guess or is there some reasoning?

Wouldn't be into this at all. Contrarianism and value investing might be the toughest type of investing to get right. So naïve to think because it's cheap, or because everyone else is selling, it must be a buy. When successful exponents do this, there's got to be much more nuance and depth to the thinking for it to work.

I'm sceptical about picking an investment style at all. You either succeed and make 10% a year, or you don't. Whatever style you can succeed with is secondary; trying to follow your favourite or preferred one is doomed to failure. It's constraining to thought; a hindrance to evaluating the underlying asset.

ATB

On the other hand, that they are not closing suggests they still expect a further drop. That's extraordinary given there's not much further it can possibly go. They [shorts] are either extremely greedy and care nothing for margin of safety, or they are ignorant. They can be wrong too. Look at the short percentage for Carillion when it went bust.

Even modestly bright sales figures for November have no effect. In less than four weeks 45% of the market value gone without major company news. Dismal. Anyone averaging down is committing the gambler's fallacy. Expect a statement any day that they've become insolvent or went into administration. Very very disappointing.