Member Info for DC2007

What time will he be updating us?

Those convinced of the 'MA's about to bid' narrative are presumably busy buying every share she/he can -- it's easy money. So has anyone here actually done this?

"I want to invest 100k into good dividend stocks"...That's a fair amount of wedge pastyc. How many equities are you planning on spreading it among? What's your timescale/object rate of return/maximum tolerable loss?

ATB

The BoD have not helped the dire perception the market has come to have of the stock. The official statements have been made using tricky language. Even now as it seems d4e swap is what they are working on, they've not been straight about it and simply informed the market. Whilst the operation was obviously rapidly deteriorating over the past 18 months, the BoD kept shuffling out platitudes saying things were okay.

I hope there's parity between the outcomes (wiped out/massive dilution) for the smallest shareholders vs. the biggest as this plays out. Can't really see this turning into a productive bid situation.

You're forecasting 7-8x upside to the current SP by around the end of this month? Presume then you are selling everything else you've got to load up on as many Debs shares as possible?

Another thing, you now say "Like everyone else, I do not know when MA will bid", yet you've spent weeks on here giving a daily countdown and portraying it as near certain. This is backtracking unless I've missed something. Can you explain Pearls?

...so, if it's as certain as you portray that a known bid is imminent, why hasn't the SP moved (sharply up) to price this in?

Pearls, I almost can't wait for the 18th March. I'll be the first to shake your hand if you've read this all along and are right. But can you answer this?

The market is generally forward looking and prices instruments at a discount or premium according to prevalent expectations...

Agree Smartie2, it's bizarre it's not sunk without trace, and even is creeping back up. Market can be irrational on both sides of how it prices something I guess.

LFL sales in the UK are down 6% n1shares. Depends if you call that a collapse or not. Was based on a weak comparator last year. Previous guidance was only based around analyst consensus - some analysts forecast a loss for 2019. I read the latest RNS to be that they know it's near certain they will make a loss in 2019.

I've lost patience with the last few RNS and reports: candour and clarity are not as they should be and when that's gone, trust is harmed in anything else that is said.

That argument only holds up if the revenues are the same but they're well down. One busy store is too small a sample for unbiased conclusions.

You come up with corkers Pearls. I can't quite decide if your posts are an attempt at satire.

"None are selling out currently - what does this tell you?"
- That they've already wrote off their loss and as a percentage of their diversified assets, the Debenhams position will make only a tiny difference to their bottom line.

"Turnover is OK this morning, but nothing special."
- Even the hallowed digital platform is on the cusp of LFL down after inflation is included. International - another way of sorting things which you have repeatedly championed - is down a fair bit too.

All of retail is not having this problem. There are companies posting growth, some of it ahead of inflation. The problem is very Debenhams specific - people have stopped spending money there. Your imminent bidding war that you portray as inevitable is far far less likely compared to admin or d4e.

Pearls, can I ask what your source is for this?

"He has made public his intention of taking over DEB before"

Sort of amazed it's only fallen ~5%. Think this will slide a lot further as the news sinks in.

Might have been for a purpose, but it's too much and has been allowed to escalate out of control. In three years when the debt is due, they're still going to have a large amount to refinance, and that's if anyone will loan to them. What are the covenants they have to pass? Market cap at this level must be touch and go for any of those.

I think the exchange rate is a minor factor. It's the crushing debt of $650m for a company with revenues about $400-500m.

Excellent results, a milestone for British industry. Long may they continue and well done to all involved.

In that situation, of doubting something will ever recover but still having 50% on the table, selling out has got to be given serious consideration.

For what it's worth, I agree with your estimate of the outlook and of the reasons why. The earnings potential even over many years is not going to be enough to pay down the debt; they've let it get too big for there to be any chance of the company ever doing very well.

Best of luck.

Hilarious posts, not at all constrained by reality; gave me a laugh this morning.

Fair to describe TCG now as a company in distress?

Agreed. The coming months could shape the UK for several generations.

Brexit has had profound economic influence on much of the population already. The better off are less affected. You may fall into that category - based on your marker of similar spending - but the bulk of the population are unlikely to share that sentiment.

ATB