Member Info for DC2007

Suddenly up a third from recent lows. What powered this over the past two days? Good luck to holders that this marks a change to the trend.

No, not funny for holders.

Lots of very bullish rises across the LSE but this got very bogged down. Back about where it was pre-results day.

More that the goodwill probably should never have been that high on the balance sheet anyway. I was always suspicious of it. Makes for dramatic headlines having it impaired, but it was never worth that in the first place.

It tanked this afternoon then. Publication of flat retail sales may be the culprit.

Wishful thinking oldtimer to say this will be 35p+ in a few weeks and 80p in a few years. What sort of stake do you have here?

Yep, one of the quieter boards. But with a reasonably large company, that can be a positive indicator of a sound business, running along without much drama. Yesterday's benign budget might give this the foundation to top £30 again soon. Atb

About PG and Debs is groundless. It's only happening because PG is in the media at the moment. If there's a statement from PG that includes the word 'Debenhams', then I might listen.

Thanks for the link treaty.

And still Debs is 'beleaguered'! What's Mothercare or Carpetright on this scale of superlatives then? So irritating the press do not do shades of grey and focus on a loss without elaborating the non-cash aspect. It's true though, this is a knife-edge bet for prospective investors of 5x or as good as bust.

After the volatile US trading and a reduced close, this is set for a modest lift tomorrow alongside precious metal stocks.

Yes that does push back the dependency on HTB quite nicely. I'd expect the concerns about this to now be priced out of the SP - the healthy UK builders now have added time to sort their house out for trading beyond it.

Chunky increase so far today. Wonder if this is anticipation of a favourable budget? Sector peers are all up healthy amounts too.

No. £2.9bn is group GTV. I've based my calculations on statutory revenue (about £2.3bn). I'm long in this with a heavy loss; have never shorted.

Have taken in the results and have a forecast.

2019. If Christmas 2018 is normal, then SP will eek into low teens. Don't see it breaking 20p in the year. Main new downside to the SP can would likely be a bad Christmas; everything else is thoroughly priced in. This is no small fry though - a awful Christmas could see administration as the result. No dividend will be paid.

2020. Following estate and debt reduction, the new Debenhams has a shrunken annual turnover of about £1.9bn (from £2.3bn today). The success of the refurbed stores is replicated across the remaining good hundred, then margins of 3% might be achievable again. That gives pretax profit of about £57m and should restore the SP to the 40s. No dividend will be paid.

2021. With 2020 restoring confidence in the profitability of the model and the value of the estate, a return to a reduced dividend is made.

So most long-term investors have a wait until at least 2021 before they might divest without large losses or see a return to the income status of the stock.

Hi The.Crowman,

Can you explain the logic of merging Debs and Arcadia now? Realise they were entwined at one point, but otherwise don't see how/why they now mesh together.

Atb

Why are people assuming he's going to bid for Debs? He's in the media due to alleged unsavoury behaviour; there's no tangible evidence he has a current interest in Debs.

Welcome back! Actually prefer you to try not get banned - the kernel of some of your posts are worth thought.

It huffed and puffed and nearly blew away all on the exchange...then didn't. Not much in the RNS to support the idea of a turnaround. At least a couple of years until a dividend, if ever. Don't think they'd survive a bad Christmas and we can't expect a miracle from the Budget either. Trend of the fundamentals is still down: the SP will stay here for as long as that doesn't change.

I made the same mistake as you The.Crowman (safe dull divvy stock) but at a higher breakeven - about 50p after subtracting dividends received.

I got it very wrong back in August 2016. Thought this would keep going quite steady given that even in the worst of the financial crisis it didn't dip below 20p. Plus I bought it for a short term Brexit bounce - which happened - and then convinced myself not to sell out at a decent 15% profit, but to be patient as it was a safe hold. Atb

Where do you see it as approximately fair value? And how do you calculate it?

at 8am for anyone with equity. Shorts as open as ever. New ATL minted today. Will be amazed if not another more severe tomorrow. I see low 7 on high volume, +20m. Press will love putting the boot in even more; can imagine the raft of crooked gloating articles being written now. Market has gone a little crazy valuing a business with near £3bn turnover at £0.1bn. But resigned to the result. Atb