Member Info for DC2007

"they didnt have any more shares left."

Hi Pokerchips, please can you explain what you mean by the above? Atb

Less than a month ago it was barely smoking on the launch pad. How annoying. Got to do better to spot the next one.

Hi KNIGELK, yes, I see the point about the leak and that it's inappropriate. Realise that the CVA is not new news and should be already price in if the SP was responding normally. What irks me is that the market will react disproportionately (not helped by the febrile and inaccurate reportage that follows Debs like a bad smell) anyway as if it was fresh information. Atb

Rest of the market rebounds firmly, Debs does FA but sink further. If this article referring to CVA materialises at the weekend, then Monday will be another savaging.

Was particularly good and elaborated mechanics of the markets. Posts of jackdawsson and toffappleton I thought especially insightful. On a BB there is bound to be BS and some of the posts punctured that.

Understanding their accounts is beyond me too. Has put me off re-investing (held a tiny amount years ago) since that would violate a golden rule of only investing in what you understand.

Never get how if Voda's so good, the retained earnings is in deficit and increases YoY; was at -EUR106695m on the last balance sheet. That they have an absence of earnings they've kept puzzles and troubles. Very large companies have balance sheets that would be aberrant with any other company; it's like the standard of what's normal changes when a company is beyond a certain size.

Atb

Advocates or adherents of the passive index fund with a time horizon of ~20yrs who bought in 1999 would have turned such a poor performance. Makes me wonder about the soundness of passive investing - if after 20yrs you can end with no more than you started with, what's the good of it? Impatience of the investor can hardly be blamed for the failure. So is the current vogue for these products selling a pup to the investors who buy in?

tomorrow along with the rest of the market if the last US session is a guide. The Far East will confirm it if it too is down sharply when it opens soon.

This has taken quite a hammering in the red sell off today. Frustrating too as I think this might depress the share for some time now and I can see a further erosion of value. A potential pickup/depressant is imminent with the Chancellor's budget at the end of October. There is the worrying potential in that to materially affect the business, whereas the long shadow of Brexit has a more nebulous effect by creating uncertainty.

Like the other precious metal producers, this has benefitted from the global stocks wobble. Investors have rushed to the safety of gold and silver. Losses across the rest of the indices being pared now and so this will soften a bit towards the close. Peak of the day passed.

So on your thinking toffappleton, the market is not free and rigged by the MMs? Is it not more nuanced than that? The MMs don't decide what price bargains are struck at but respond to orders to buy and orders to sell. From the balance of buyers and sellers is derived the price and the MMs only grease the wheel.

The way you've put it is like the MMs decide what something is worth, and not the market.

Thanks for your detailed response The.Crowman.

I do agree that shares under and over shoot regularly and that presents buying and selling opportunities. Overshoots and undershoots might be a third or a half even if I'm generous. But when the magnitude is so much greater, that portends something serious. That's why the SP collapse in 12 months is a blaring alarm signal.

I've discounted the Odey short as anomalous, but as you say, Blackrock opening a position at sub 10p is not good news at all.

Atb

Hi The.Crowman. Firstly, good luck with your plan. Very brave to buy something down ~80% in a year.

That they are pushing on with their plans and are ignoring the SP could be denial/wishful thinking. Nearly any collapse is preceded with defiance informing similar actions - think Carillion for a recent example. How then, as an outsider, can one determine the difference between groundless and valid optimism when both wear the same face?

I'd refine my comment about the market being nearly always right. It's better qualified thus: "the market is nearly always right, in comparison to the retail investor". That's because the market is a composite of millions of 'conversations' about price discovery; this will include inside knowledge. The likelihood that these are less accurate than the individual with no inside knowledge has to be small. A contrarian position has this very big weight to overcome if it is to be successful.

Come the 25th, there will be no dividend and profit is will be no where near £50m - more like £30m. If there is even the slightest miss with these results, the abnormal SP will be crushed to even more alarmingly low levels. The BOD should not be ignoring this since covenants are related to the equity value as is the capacity for debt re-financing that will be needed soon. It's baffling that they freely disregard the SP.

I own, but no way do I see this as a buy. The normal SPs of 40-50p just 12 months ago are probably years and years away now, if at all. BOD have presided over this and without reacting sufficiently. Insolvency and collapse will now be genuinely on the table over the coming months.

Expect this for Debs too. The market thinks the end is nigh and the market is nearly always right. It couldn't be priced this low without there being drastic problems behind the scenes. Might end up with a few pence left in the pound if that once it goes bang - writing is on the wall. It has been for a few months. Annoyed I lived in denial and and didn't bail; now it doesn't matter.

But look at the juicy yield!

Me. Only have to look at the charts, the effects described in the reports, and the general tone of doubt cast over the UK economy since the vote. A lot has to be ignored to conclude it's not under the influence of Brexit.

It's already heavily influenced by Brexit oldtimer. Non-food retail sales have been down since the vote; the pound has weakened; and the UK consumer is far more cautious and choosy about what they spend. If there hadn't been a Brexit vote, or a general election, the SP would be nearer 40-50p.

...'til this tests nine.

Was nearly right about the price here! Shame they are not around to see it.

Yes that's naive! Expecting 3x/4x/5x overall return in a couple of months rather than a couple of decades is dangerous. Invested capital of 20% in any one equity is inherently very risky, no matter how sound the business seems. Unless you've a superb track record of picking investments, diversify. Spread your investment and risk among 10-20 holdings. Or buy a low cost index tracker for the bulk of your investment capital; run a much, much smaller portfolio of personal picks for fun.

Having a high risk appetite can be dangerous. Ask yourself a corollary question: how do you feel about Losing some or all of your capital? How would that affect your life and financial status, along with any plans you have? After answering those things honestly, then you might be better placed to assess what you are willing to risk.

No one, really absolutely no one, knows where the SP of anything will be at some future point. Some will be able to offer good reasoning; some will offer crooked reasoning; some will offer nothing more than a guess. The context of a given persons investing style is essential: it shapes their thoughts but adapting these to different context can easily render it invalid and make it damaging.

As for Ferrexpo, the SP will drop under 200p after a recent very strong run as investors take profit. It won't dip towards it's recent lows of ~140p unless international trade disputes (Trump) rear-up again. Over the short term, I'd expect it to settle ~170p; it's very volatile though and rarely settles anywhere for long. The previous assumes no especially good/bad company news or specific market news. Longer term, the case for the company is bearish given their income is expected to decline - in the metals and natural resources sector, there are better long term buys.

Good luck with your investments Dunny42.