Member Info for DC2007

Yield is dangerously high here. Suggests the market beginning to price in a dividend cut. Not only a 52 week low, but the SP trading at its lowest in nearly seven years. Has that golden period of returned been funded by the BoD overcooking it? That's my worry.

KRSS,

Why would MA make a t/o bid in the next few weeks? If he waits just another 6 months, he get the same thing for less than half the 50p he'd need to pay now.

At Feb 2019, it would be about 29/30p as the minimum. Continues to reduce after that. Been an awful year for shareholders here.

This is now a binary proposition for investors based on how they evaluate the dividend. If they think it's safe, buyers will see the fat yield as a bond proxy and pump the price back up. If they think it's vulnerable, then the SP will weaken further. Big drop out of nowhere for such a large company. Nasty shock this was for holders today.

So this means you'd not even bother accepting any gifted shares goinglarge?

The last paragraph is egregious - utter speculation about MA's intent with HoF and Debs. To my knowledge, he's made no public comment on the matter.

At these prices, even a buy of 1m shares would only be little over £100k, which is fairly modest. Can't remember what the board guidance is for minimum holdings to be attained after tenure commencement.

Yes, Pokerchips I expect the BoD to be concerned about the share price. No idea what you're on about with spoon feeding. The concern of the BoD, as you point out, is the company and the balance sheet; implicit in that concern is the valuation of owners equity.

Takeover now would be ideal if it's MA since he'd be forced to offer 50p. Only has to sit it out a bit longer though for the minimum offer to tumble. As long as he thinks the business will survive until then, there's no rush for him to bid.

80%. Yes, that's not a typo, four-fifths of equity-holders' value wiped out in under a year. Again this morning, no RNS, no apparent concern from the BoD. Not many other PLCs where this sort of approach would wash.

The debt has been allowed to race up, presumably to fund the 'Redesigned' movement. Really annoys me that the BoD have not kept the debt under control during this. Nothing that might have required increased debt should have been started. It's not just a little bit either. It's went from about £250m to an expected £320m under SB's stewardship. Fine if the market cap was still respectable, but covenant threatening otherwise. They seem to have been blinded to the equity slide over the past year.

Now they might become forced sellers of one of the best profitable parts of the business (Magasin) simply to recover the balance sheet and take administration of the table. Dividend must be cut in Oct - they need to hang on to every pound right now.

FT now have coverage. Steep red day on the cards. The press coverage has been annoyingly biased (even now the FT keep saying a fifth - 20% - of the issue is short-sold) but the stories over the past year viewed as a series have the unmistakable fingerprint of a company that has begun to teeter.

toffappleton says there's nothing new under the sun. In their very next sentence, they mention algorithms which are...yep, quite new!

It is surreal that the biggest companies in the world have a product/service that is discretionary. Discretionary consumption is usually subject to fashion and can change quickly on a whim (Yahoo for example). The valuations of these companies then have a certain disconnect from their fundamentals and their intrinsic value. Fleccy's analysis that big tech has bubble qualities is fair. Facebook, Apple and Netflix the most vulnerable in my view.

...will be more pain for shareholders after the airy press coverage this weekend. FT have nothing about it yet but there's enough there for the market to take it badly. Below 10p now looks more likely than not over the coming days.

This company has interested me for some time. Volatility and range of the equity price is unusual for the relatively large market cap. The P/e is abnormally low which raises a red flag; also, the longer term forecast earnings is downwards. These I wonder might now be acting on the share price, enhanced by the recent increase reported in costs.

Undoubtedly, the China situation is a big depressant too. Much as I'm cautious of predicting the caprice of Trump, this factor I expect will be temporary. When it abates, I think the share price will normalise. The rub is where this normal level may lie, and how low it could dip too until then.

I'm struck by the posts below that conflate the index and the constituent. They are, in part, one and the same. To will a rise from the FTSE as a spur to a rise in VOD is crooked reasoning. As much so as it is to cheer VOD not declining even if the FTSE has.

Vodafone's accounts are too hard to understand and that in itself near puts me off. Shame because they have many bull features to make them a long term buy.

If you're long at 21p, I can see some chance you'll get your principal back if the business stabilises. Think of those long in the 30s and greater, they're almost certain to never see their investment again.

I agree that the BoD have not seemed sufficiently concerned about the erosion of equity value. For the common stock holder, seems like fate is being left to the gods and the shorters.

...this is on the slide to test all time lows again.

Do you think it will be cut though? Must admit I'd be surprised if a final dividend was retained at all. Current yield suggests the market thinks it will be passed.

63/43 isn't terrible, but it'd be an uncomfortable hold at positions around or more than 100p.