RE: Where the fall stops?26 Jun 2018 15:29
The fall and valuation does seem absurd. My buy in was mid 50s and I thought that to be sufficiently low for a decent margin of safety. I'd looked at the valuation during the credit crunch as a "no way it can drop near that again" price; along with steady YoY revenues, a high (but not alarmingly high) yield, and a discount to book-value (73%), I thought this would trundle along without nasty surprises. How painfully wrong.
I've written down the value of my holding now. I doubt the SP will ever top 25p again in normal trading. I reckon year-end 2019, puts the SP at about 21-23p. If Ashley makes a bid, I can't see it being more than 30p/share. He only has to wait another few months before he'd be able to offer a lot less than the ~50p/share for the tranche he bought October 2017.
Without a glut of very good news, and whilst it's heavily shorted, the SP will continue to ebb away. I'll hold since the damage is mainly done already.