Member Info for DC2007

Short positions have increased very rapidly too in just a month. It has put me off this even as a speculation - too much risk surrounding it with a quantum and visibility of any upside tough to see. Agree that a dip into 20s looks on.

Funny you should mention Anglo. I bought them in 2015 and watched in horror as it dived and dived. Then it soared almost as quickly. I kept hoping Debs would do something similar, but can't see anything on that scale Mining shares are wild beasts like no other sector. There were some absolute bargains in natural resources when oil crashed in late 2015. Those events - and the opportunities they reveal - are a few a decade, maybe less.

That is an intricate and pertinent (acquisitions via other instruments) point.

That aside, johnson36 has pointed out the declining profile in the price MA can offer from October 2018 onward. I agree, I don't think he'd offer 51p, which at the moment, he'd have to. Emergence of second bidder could influence the timing and price of any TO offer. Next danger that could scupper a cheap TO deal would be better than expected results in October.

The sharp rise and pumped volume of the last two days can't be random though - the market is saying something different about this share now.

You think Day has no interest KRSS?

Twanging another new all-time low, then rallying to gain 10% on the previous close. All without RNS or extraordinary volumes. Holding the gain tomorrow will give some confidence that a turnaround is on.

This could get tasty if Philip Day, having been pipped to the post with HoF, decides to retaliate by bidding for Debs. It would smoke out MA's intentions with the Debs stake. If he wants a controlling stake in Debs, then he could be forced into a bidding contest far earlier than planned; shareholders might then have an opportunity to exit with some value salvaged.

HoF's pension obligation (think it was a sizable deficit ) passed to the regulator once they were in administration. This means SD's purchase of HoF a few hours later has no pension obligation attached. Canny stuff from MA. The tax-payer might ultimately pick up the tab for HoF's pension scheme if needs be.

£90m commited to HoF means less left in the pot for any other purchase - an offer for Debs looks less likely now. I'm surprised given that SD's stake in Debs is much larger; it suggested this was their preferred target. Unless this is a manifestation of a longer masterplan has been in play all along: aquire Debs on the cheap after shorters have strangled it, then merge it with HoF/SD to create a megachain. With SD's estate, MA would control a huge slice of the high street. It would be empire building that had the potential to create a monopoly.

I had very similar thoughts TheMoneyTeem as I watched my Debenhams investment drop and drop. It's now all the way down to 12p - how I wish I'd heeded my doubts at when I ducked under 40p. If you have concern Petra is heading a lot lower, then cutting the loss sooner has to be the way to go. Atb

PARITY10, Understood re. the caps - sorry for any offense.

Agreed, all fair.

Typing in all caps - you're 'shouting'. Sounds bitter too.

I thought you might decline to. Fair enough. Atb

Been researching this one in more depth over the past few days because I was considering a small speculation on it. Can't see much to push this higher over the next 12; continuous doubt of future revenues from Williamson; notes that will shortly need refinanced; and a range of banks that keep waiving covenants, but for how much longer? If they ran out of cash again, it would not surprise me. Will re-evaluate as it drops towards 30p.

Atb

There needs to be a distinction - surely anyone shorting here is 'shorting' and not shorting. The latter (shorting) makes me uncomfortable, but the former is no different to gambling which I've no beef with.

Lastcall, since you brought up your accounts, did you work out your annual % profit since 2012?

...to hit yet another all time low. Miserable start to the week.

The debt, the last update indicating lower future revenues, and the rights issue. All together are weighing on the share price. Shorters have piled back in and nearly doubled in just the month of July. Market makes a strong statement when it values something at a discount to NAV. For investment, this is very high risk.

Under those rules, it would be about 50p until the end of October.

Does this mean 95% of your equity exposure is concentrated on Vodafone?

ATB

Good point BangersAndCash, although I read it as selling at discount to book at the minute, rather than discount to cash.

MA's hard to read at any time. But he'll not pull the trigger unless he's got to for a few months yet since he'd be forced to pay 50p. An alternative bidder or surge in the SP in the meantime could make it interesting - might force whatever hand he wants to play. 100p is well out of question IMO, but a much higher premium than takeover norms could then materialise. For all that, I'm getting a gut feeling no one wants to take it over. That has to be kept on the table as an outcome.