Member Info for Davde

Offers a good potential opportunity given location synergies, but price v benefits would need to be right to convince institutional shareholders, rights issue could be on the cards!
Competition ruling this week so hopefully a boost to SP coming!

100notout not being sarcastic, unfortunately wish I was. LMI could only survive if PT price rises significantly before long term survival would be assured. Production guidance at lower end of forecast, COP higher than peers by some way, significant investment required to improve grade recovery, to many headwinds in my view to be sustainable as a stand alone company, although new management could turnaround possibly! Completely agree takeover value a bargain but its the only show in town, so still think takeover in best interest of shareholders but frying pan and fire spring to mind!

Marginally profitable when they should be raking it in, to me this reinforces need for takeover, sooner the better in my view!

Rastuss agree conditionals high and I am aware of Jabba's track record! All mining is impacted by metal prices and yes investment in other PGM producers could be more beneficial but we will see!

Rastuss agree not profit but the underlying figures look not too bad if you take view gold will get back on track, agree risk there, the pgm operations are understated and guidance remains same. Also agree SBGL figures need careful examination as they are always well spun! My rationale re dividend is assuming PT talks have good outcome and and no production losses then SBGL will have cash and he will pare down debt, but Jabba wants to restore dividends asap firstly to keep Institutional investors happy and make them more relaxed so secondly making further acquisitions (funded by placing/rights issue, not by debt) easier as he the builds empire. Jabba's strategy is sound and he needs luck re metals pricing cycle! He has not made a major mistake yet we know about and luck on his side and institutions like dividends! Would not be surprised if he makes further
major acquisitions next year if he thinks deal good to be had and it could be any metal anywhere!

Will be taken aback if LMI results good, tomorrow will tell!

Not a bad set of results for SBGL, the underlying profitability is good in PGM operations and no change.in guidance for these. Re gold operations we will need to wait and see. Still think they will declare a dividend at year end assuming not to much turbulence with PT negotiations! For LMI tomorrow it maybe a different story but tend to agree with other posters BoD will dramatise position!

Good show cannot wait, interesting the mention of takeover as they had no need to do so! I was thinking marginally profitable but maybe worse! We will see soon, discount rate circa 2%!

These are due out in next couple of weeks 14th last year. Given the March update said they were still expecting high COP to persist of 14,795 zar, unless the PGM bp has increased significantly above first Q of 15,384 zar then at best they will be marginally profitable! Institutional investors may decide a shotgun wedding better than no wedding! We will find out soon enough.

Looks like they are being taken out safely and no injuries reported so all good hopefully.

Last quote in this article is the most telling, article trying to exaggerate situation in my view, yes Uncle Joe could create havoc but unlikely he will, political noise yes, but he will comply with rules in the end otherwise he will be in deep doo doo! Sooner election over the better!

AMCU should comply with their own constitution. A statement saying they will do so with timescales, will end the matter! Any other course of action, in my view looks like you have something to hide! Lets see the accounts Uncle Joe your members will be interested and if there is nothing to hide why fight it!
Another interesting week ahead I suspect, as election counts down!

Rastuss it may take longer and it will be noisy! Uncle Joe may have a credibility issue with membershi, if he is not squeaky clean. Even the cadre that support him may waiver! We will get a feel for it sooner rather than later, he has a lot of options the question is what route he takes, that will be informative, if he had sense he would be asking his lawyers about his personal liabilties and culpabilities!

Interesting response from Uncle Joe he is clearly rattled! I had not appreciated his actions re pension funds last year and it reminds me of a certain "Captain Bob"! Hopefully resolved quickly as think Uncle Joe now on thin ice!

Sure Uncle Joe will be defiant! Still think the bait has been taken by EFF as this move is politics by Cyril who must be confident of outcome given timing, we will see!

Rastuss it will be interesting, if Uncle Joe has any weakness e.g. salary/benefits/nepotism he will be dumped, its now overtly political, EFF have taken bait!

Amplats definitely a better investment a year ago, think they peaking in terms of sp. SBGL probably has more potential now!

Rastuss yes it could get nasty but think election will be decisive for ANC, albeit slightly reduced seats. Not sure EFF will support AMCU leadership as he could be a liability! So think risk of a nasty spat low in financial terms, lots of rhetoric though! I think a deal was done at the Feb conference re industrial relations, so road map has been worked out, hoping so!
Agree re legal system could be more effective and efficient but that's democracy.
Jabba knows he needs to keep institutional investors on board and dividend payments do that. If underlying profitability there this year and cashflow good expect a divi! Whilst debt an issue as long as it's be pared back ahead of schedule not an issue. Yes investment required but if profitability of PGM operations good not an issue its all about cashflow!
Whilst not disagreeing about SBGL investment and Jabba's track record as serial empire builder, he has vision and ambition and knows how to get things done.
It is quite possible he is creating a highly successful mining company to rival the big boys, you, never know! Stillwater transaction good, LMI transaction good, gold transactions goodish, he has not any major mistake yet that I can see! I am no cheerleader for SBGL by the way, they have a lot of issues but I still view takeover best for LMI, I also suffer broken record syndrome! Takeover odds down to evens, new race SBGL pay divi (or equivalent) this financial year 11/2!

Rastuss Cyril needs to have a good industrial relations framework as a cornerstone of attracting new and maintaining existing investment in SA. How hard they are on AMCU will become apparent in next few weeks, if Uncle Joe tries to resist, an audit of AMCU accounts could be enlightening! The date can always be moved again don't think any problem.

Suspect SBGL has done it for window dressing, it nearly mitigates the share placement for LMI shareholders! Still think an SBGL dividend on cards, gold strike finished, positive PT wage negotiation outcome, higher PGM bp, underlying profits good, updates will shed light.

It is window dressing, real issue is SBGL sp in coming months. I remain confident it will rise to plus 18 Zar with subsequent LMI benefit, maybe more if underlying SBGL profits look good, update next month should be informative! Good move by Cyril to have a proper industrial relations framework in place, that means having proper union representation for workers, not cabals!
I was quite enjoying the quiet news week but its LMI/SBGL!

Rastuss I do get the sense that LMI negotiations may not be bad! Don't know why! One thing that bothers me is why are wage negotiations carried out separately? You would slso
and think the basic wages would be similar in each company for platinum workers but maybe not, due to historical reasons! We will find out soon enough after the election as think if EFF do not make significant gains e.g. 12.5% plus share of vote then it could be uncle Joe who has no pants on when tide goes out!

Rastuss doubt Jabba has agreed to drop offer but you never know! However the potential synergies of the PT operations of SBGL and LMI is compelling and will make them very efficient wirhin a few years!