Member Info for Davde

Hopefully no material impact on LMI.
It is my under standing that the potential synergies due to the co location of LMI/SBGL mines, understated in my view in the bid, offer a significant opportunity to reduce COP and significantly increase profits for all stakeholders. Shareholders may under these circumstances be prepared to support a rights issue! PT needs to rise soon and only speculating but you never know! Still think SBGL takeover best for LMI circumstances not changed that much!

You are certainly right re SBGL problems. LMI has its own issues but do think they can survive for a few years at current BP and with weak rand waiting for PT upturn in price so can see your rationale for voting against deal but still think SBGL deal will be better long term as there are significant synergies with SBGL's South African PGM mines. If for instance LMI bid for those l think institutions could see rationale and support such a move and fund it as without a lower COP LMI cannot survive long term it cannot survive on a high BP and weak rand the COP must be competitive!

LMI offers a discounted price for SBGL shares, so is a cheap entry into SBGL. Appreciate PGM basket price good at present but unless LMI starts generating significant profits and that requires PT increase as well (possible in next year or so) SBGL offer likely to be accepted by institutional shareholders as this offers better long term growth and profit potential than a stand alone LMI, in the absence of any other bids!

There are still outstanding issues that require resolution before deal can be completed. There is no doubt that the current value makes the deal very good for SBGL. LMI does however still face significant investment and productivity issues that require to be addressed and in my view the SBGL deal is still the best outcome to resolve these issues. If the PT price has a sustained rise of circa 20%-25% then other buyers may show interest but doubt that will happen before deal completed even at current slow rate of progress!

Latest predicting over supply for 2019 but potential increases in demand due to substitution of PD and/or increase in fuel cell usage on horizon. This maybe final year of depressed PT prices!

Rastuss good summary. Not sure what more legal options Uncle Joe has left but sure he will think of something!

All very sad but any heavy handed use of police wil play into Uncle Joe's hand he wants to provoke a violent response. If Uncle Joe wants company directors jailed for deaths perhaps it should be applicable to union leaders who incite violence that leads to deaths of workers! Unions in S.A. need to work together not fight each other if they genuinely want to improve their members conditons rather than having violent turf wars.

An olive branch is an olive branch! Uncle Joe has missed an opportunity to negotiate any potential jobs reductions, not good, he seems determined to drag this out as long as possible! Not sure his interdict will work and if he is not careful more SBGL gold miners may end up with no jobs, absolutely no point in mining gold if it costs more to do so than what it sells for!

Rastuss fairly generous offer, SBGL obviously keen to end the strike. It does not seem time limited but suspect that will be announced shortly. Will see how Uncle Joe reacts, if he has sense he will ask for some concessions/parameters re potential gold job losses, if gets something he can claim a victory and he does have platinum wage discussions round the corner! If he tries to play hard ball he could end up being undermined if strikers start returning which they will unless intimidation starts which would not be good. Uncle Joe maybe be right in that corporate manslaughter laws may require tightening up in cases of proven negligence as ensuring safety of miners is paramount but deaths are unavoidable in the current labour intensive deep mining industry unfortunately. Mechanisation can make mining safer but is not always feasible from what I understand.

A deal, one that saves face will be done, what that will be and when is anyone's guess, mine is minimising job reductions plus softer benefits. It always takes longer to transform an industry than is anticipated and that's ok if you can survive that long!

Rastuss I have not seen anything re Amplats and impact of power outages, no doubt it has an operational impact and should these become unpredictable, impact could be very damaging indeed.

Stillwater will probably account for the majority of SBGL profits in 2019 it produces a high PD output, so looking very good even after streaming deal, Jabba got that right even if streaming deal expensive! Suspect Jabba waiting for courts to rule in his favour and/or strikes to peter out, he is not going to move. Uncle Joe may have met his match as not a lot left he can do and stay legal! He may revert to dirty tactics to try and create a situation (violence unfortunately) to garner support for his stance as his members must be wondering when the current strikes will end as they must be suffering. I await Uncle Joe's next move with anticipation!

Rastuss as you have said before S.A. courts are notoriously slow! In my view sometimes think it's deliberate for many reasons, politics being one and time resolves issue another! Time I suspect re the NW court one! By the time court rules LMI will have complied with SLP albeit late as they have indicated in their results a catch up plan in place!

Uncle Joe will undoubtedly have a plan B we will need to see what it is, sure we will find out soon enough! Not sure if he is prepared to be a martyr just yet!

Unclear what the impact of ESKOM load shedding is having on miners as they have forewarning of when it happens for safety reasons so can manage to some extent. There will be some financial and operational impact but not sure how much as yet but hopefully minimal!

Rastuss interesting employers must have been able to satisfy court they have a clear legal case (prima facia) and are satisfying other conditions. Good news for employers but sure AMCU will appeal judgement when it happens but in the interim the strike is effectively blocked. Uncle Joe will not be happy wonder what he will do next!

Not sure SBGL has accepted AMCU strike protected they are still awaiting labour court to rule on verification process if I recall. Mind you by the time they rule strike could be over!
PT price now just shy of the average price they got last year, on the plus side PD and Rhodium both well up on last year.

Interesting why AMCU withdrew notice at some places, maybe AMCU support not as solid as Uncle Joe expected! Think argument against action strong but we will see if court agrees!

The top 10 institutional shareholders of LMI account for circa 63% of shares. Source FT LMI tearsheet not sure how upto date it is. No guarantee they would all support takeover but suspect most will. Also think its the SBGL shareholders who will have reservations re deal!

At present I am still in favour of the takeover but should a clear sustainable rally in PT price emerge I may change my mind! We are some way off that at present! My view only.

Agree LMI may attract additional interest if PT price rises, as it has valuable assets and reserves available, however the underlying productivity issue still requires resolution by whom ever takes up challenge! Still think Jabba favourite at moment but circumstances change!

LMI will be able to survive with signficant sustained increase in PT price and weak rand no doubt about it in short to medium term. Problem is they are reliant on these external factors and unless they contain costs and improve productivity in the short to medium term they along with many others in SA miners will struggle as costs are increasing fast. I do agree the PT price is low and agree it will pick up when fuel cell production picks up hopefully in next year or so. I do however still believe that LMI as part of SBGL will provide better returns for shareholders in long term as product and geographical diversification is key to survival and growth.

Jabba will keep his option open re LMI until dust settles after election. If EFF gain significant influence in S.A. political scene and AMCU becomes more poweful in mining industry then SBGL along with other players may exit S.A. or reduce investment all of which bad for the industry and jobs! Hopefully this will not happen and this is Jabba raising stakes in the game currently being played out! He still wants LMI badly but not at any cost!