Member Info for Davde

Unlikely Jabba will move on pay uplift although there is scope round softer benefits. This strike is purely political to raise EFF profile ahead of the election! Uncle Joe wants mining industry nationalised he does not care if LMI or any others go bust in the interim! My view is Cyril will let it run and see what's next move after secondary strikes over (if its only a week) as Uncle Joe will want to keep pressure on, his risk is, he will alienate his members, remember its only 300 rand per month in year one and 175 rand years 2 and 3 if I recall, his members will take years to recoup their lost wages!

Rating agencies tend to take a prudent view these days (rightly but they can overdo it) and concerns re strike impact will be paramount as no resolution is coming soon unfortunately by the looks of it, but you never know we could be surprised next week! It is true a long strike may require a rights issue and that will be problematic but think risk low at present. The current discount on LMI shares is circa 15% it has been a lot higher in recent times I take this and the increase in holdings by main players as a good sign that deal will proceed. In 6 months time it will all be done and dusted one way or other, LMI assimilated or the Lmi bones being picked over by SBGL and others, as they do have significant strategically placed assets and reserves! Patience and nerves required!

Until the labour court rules in SBGL's favour the secondary strike is legal, so sooner they do the better. Uncle Joe mentioned going the Labour court tomorrow so we will see what he is upto, more delay I suspect! He did concede during interview AMCU not main union! Due to intimidation of his members to change sides, I may have picked this up wrong! Unless Govt intervenes, which they won't, as that is what Uncle Joe wants anything to escalate the situation, he wants revolution!

Watched the clip and it is very clear this is a political strike to garner support for the EFF, the language used is straight from their manifesto. He did say all places where AMCU majority of members. If the Labour court rules either way it may force a resolution otherwise this could go on for months!

LMI shares are currently discounted by circa 19% in relation to SBGL so they offer a instant profit on takeover all things being equal for people wishing to invest in SBGL, this maybe the motivation for buying LMI instead of SBGL.
Whilst the increase in the PGM bp and the depreciation of the Rand has made the chances of LMI surviving on its own, they probably need the PT price to improve by 15-20% minimum over a sustained period to survive on it's own! The Capex required to make LMI truely sustainable in the long term is significant and not currently likely! If the EFF gets in Rand will collapse and LMI will be very profitable in Rand terms unfortunately they will have nationalised LMI!

Yup will see some detail hopefully!

Rastuss always welcome your comments come back soon cheers

Rastuss Jabba may have learnt a lesson we will see!

Rastuss agree longstop will be extended, maybe only a month or so hopefully! Absolutely sure Jabba has a plan A, he will also have plans B, C, D, etc, he wants to create a diversified mining giant in precious metals and possibly more and do that as and when opportunities arise, time will tell if he achieves his vision and he does not mind taking the hard road if prize worthwhile!
Listened to interview and there is a lot of playground behaviour from all participants, re who said what and when, they were all playing games unfortunately. You don't normally have three boxers in the ring! Loved the ref, he played a blinder trying to have a proper debate, bit like trying to catch an eel!

Rastuss is Jabba not waiting for the labour court to rule on verification first, but the court need to respond to AMCU technical point first is my understanding!
I had a quick look at the EFF Manifesto and if implemented would make South Africa, like North Korea a closed country! It was full of promises and contradictions!

Yet again close price lower than trades 5 mins before close! This share should have risen today but we now have a unreal discount!

Rastuss Jabba will need to engage Uncle Joe if SBGL lose labour court, what that means in reality not sure, Jabba will not concede on wage deal but there maybe softer things he can move on e.g. health benefits. If Uncle Jo refuses to budge then we maybe be in for long haul! SBGL quarterly figures should be good as gold strike would have minimal impact and suspect stillwater/blitz above expectations they also have deferred revenue from previous qtr reflected. The Jan to March quarter will become more problamatic but yes Jabba may play hard ball and sit it out until after election as he is playing long game and AMCU needs to be sorted moving forward if not then LMI deal maybe pulled he can then pick up what he wants in business rescue as cash may soon not be such an issue. In the meantime AMCU members will suffer!

Rastuss it does take a while by the looks of it to rule on an appeal! What we need is for the Labour court to make a ruling on the verification process so that progress can be made on deciding if strike protected or not! If it goes SBGL's way all good , if it does not then Jabba may need to pick up the phone to Uncle Joe! Appeals can happen afterwards would be my view!

EFF may want mines nationalised but they will still require significant investment to maintain production and reduce COP without it mining will be uneconomic in S.A. No investment means subsidies to support loss making jobs or S.A. government ploughs in the investment to make them more efficient from taxes or debt and they have other priorities like public sector infrastructures transport, health and education to name a few! The private sector are best placed to raise investment with the goverment providing a new operating framework that recognises the contribution of all stakeholders! S.A. has massive untapped potential that if realised will create many more efficient mining jobs at the same time as providing revenue streams for all stakeholders if handled correctly. The ANC reallly need to step upto the mark otherwise in the next 10 years S.A. will become an uninvestable basket case economy time is running out! Rant over!

Rastuss completely agree with your second thought as to rationale for extending the strike! For LMI any strike seems a bizzare tactic given wage negotiations start soon and cannot see miners being happy going out again as part of these negotiations! Labour court really does need to get finger out but as you say it does not have a reputation for speed!

Other thing is how much inventory LMI hold as that will give an indication of how long they can survive a strike without going bust! SBGL will undoubtedly survive, could even profit significantly if PD increases as a result of strike as market already tight and stillwater already raking in cash for them!

Rastuss my view is the labour court still needs to rule re verification process but first they need to sort out the technical issue that the AMCU raised. I could be wrong as it is confusing! Agree regardless of result both parties will appeal regardless but if it is in SBGL favour will the court say strike is still protected whilst they review appeal or not. If its not protected then strike over or it becomes illegal! Sure Uncle Joe will not care either way as he gets his political agenda oxygen regardless of the impact on his members! Very sad and not good for a key industry in S.A. or its people.

Rastuss this will put pressure on the labour court to get its finger out as Uncle Joe upping stakes! Alternatively Jabba could always give Uncle Joe a call as he is clearly miffed at not speaking one to one, perhaps offering him a seat on board!

You can sense the frustration in the release! On a positive note maybe the Labour court can get on with deciding the AMCU issue! Then they can rule on the verification process!

I would be interested to know if the strike is still solid as these people have been without wages for a long time now and must be hurting.

Rastuss doubt they are putting off all reductions, just deferring some as forced redundancy costs high as you said, so they will stick to volunteers and staff turnover to manage reductions I suspect. Sensible if high PGM basket price allows it by making some shafts marginally profitable. It also satisfys takeover conditions to look at minimising job losses. This can only be short term though as productivity improvements required to make business sustainable in longer term without significant rise in PT price which is still languishing at a low level look at price of PT in update not good.
Re employee directors for this to work unions need to work together first, its not managements problem how individuals selected normally so this is somewhat in future unfortunately I would guess!
Sentiment for SBGL seems to have turned favourably as rise in last month has been good for both sets of shareholders long may it continue but positive Labour court news would definitely underpin SP rise further we live in hope!

Rastuss good interview assuming its the CNBC Africa one at Indaba. Interesting point re unions on exec board a point close to my heart for good industrial relations in any organisation! He maintained his position re strike so is playing waiting game re labour court outcome! Think June closure of deal optimistic! He is canny re Gold acquisitions quite rightly. My view is he will only go for gold opportunities where he is assured cooperation in modernising working practices as most gold fields are marginal at best and desperately in need of modernisation to make profitable.
Did you notice reference to job losses in update being delayed as suspected because of high PGM Bp some job losses deferred! Without PD and Rh increases LMI would be in serious trouble by now!