Member Info for Davde

So airline sold, Fosun buy Tcg, Fosun do CVA is my reading, so how shareholders harmed except by level of Fosun bid!

So airline sold, Fosun buy Tcg, Fosun do CVA is my reading, so how shareholders harmed except by level of Fosun bid!

For me PMG is long term investment. I personally like the cautious but innovative approach PMG have. Whilst no guarantee the rewards will be high, the strategy is sound and I am confident any downside will be limited. PMG now generating cash and hopefully profits this year and from now on. Whilst oil usage will start to decline as governments tackle climate change oil will still be required for many years so as long as it can be extracted economically PMG has a profitable future. Yes its frustrating that news re progress is sparse I am still prepared to wait as we have been doing! For those wishing a quick return this is not the share for them, but you never know news can come at any time!

Coast may have lost this round, but they have set a benchmark which I am sure institutional investors will have made clear to current board. May provide some much needed focus to task in hand! Short term patience required to find out if it has had an impact!

With any sell off of airline or tour operations insurers will be impacted premiums will go up or down depending upon perceived risk of potential purchasers, see it as part of due diligence process thats all!

My view is they want whole tour operations excluding airline and the nordic business bid flushed them out!

There are various outcomes for Tcg.
1. Current strategy to sell airline, reduce debt and crucially improve profitabilty.
2. Above plus sell off Nordic.
3. Fosun takeover minus airline.
4. If there is no sign of profitability turnaround by xmas administration/D4E beckons even with airline sale.
There maybe other potential outcomes which sure I will be told about! For me as a long term holder, the key is the Q3 update, a further decline in gross margins will not bode well long term, as this is the real cause of Tcg's problems. We will need to wait and see, in the interim without solid news re airline/Fosun, which I do not expect any time soon as these things take months to sort, the SP will continue to be under pressure, so for those hoping for quick buck in next month or so, whether they are shorters or short term recent holders think they will be disappointed!

I have again looked at both Coast and First strategies and have to say not happy with either! Coast promise a lot re performance, but in reality this will be superficial as they strip assets to generate dividends, after a few years bones will be sold off! FGP want to disinvest in Greyhound and First bus and concentate in US, can live with Greyhound, not convinced with First bus! To make matters worse, I suspect they will use the sale proceeds to go on an acquisition spree in US, (when organic is the way to go, its a contract market all you need to do is invest in bid teams!) rather than reduce debt and put investment in operational efficiency of existing business (except trains!). Spleen vented!

Some interesting points raised from today's and yesterday's discussions and done in reasonably civilised manner, hope that continues! Currently I do not believe Tcg will fail, I do think this time next year it will have been taken over and whilst price paid will depend on many factors the talk of pounds is very unlikely, 40p to 50p would be good but that depends on how keen Fosun are, it may take sometime to discover this, as some very complicated deals to be worked through and these take time, but you never know! In the interim months I am sure there will be many twists and turns to be discussed in an informative manner! A small shareholder long term with a BE of 45p, a level I am sure I will not be alone at and reasonably optimistic of positive outcome currently!

Completely agree FGP have underperformed in recent years however do not agree Coast offer solution as they appear to be asset strippers by sell/leaseback proposals, yes it offers short term cash injections to pay down debt but more likely dividends! In longer term leases tend to be restrictive and hard to break thereby reducing flexibilty. Agree greyhound should go its not been a good investment with low returns. First rail is a political nightmare so should exit as soon as possible. I am very interested to understand what is meant by FGP's structural reform, float as seperate company or what? Transit and schools seem fine currently so can see rationale keeping them currently. Yes something needs done but not sure either FGP or Coast have the answers frankly. Just my view as a long suffering holder.

Tcg are far from being out of the woods yet, selling airline will reduce debt but unless underlying profitabilty improves, by implementing their product differentation strategy quickly, holding Tcg medium to long term is a risky investment at the moment which is what Fool is saying albeit negatively! We will have a clearer idea after summer season in the interim it will be a bumpy ride but I do remain positive. GLA

Zpzp if I had the choice I would have waited until last minute (next week) as suspect SBGL will rise as market realises benefits of takeover. The choice is yours as it could go other way in coming days! I am not going to look from now on, its like giving up your regular lottery numbers best not to know!

Broker selling my shares today unfortunately, as they do not trade in SA stocks! Think will rise in next week but heyho. Enjoyed the discussions on this BB and wish you well in future with SBGL.

No RNS re acceptance yet, bit odd !

The majority of firms in this market are suffering due to over supply and reduced demand caused by various reasons. This has impacted margins and hence profitability. Talk of Tcg going into Administration are overdone at present, we will all have a clearer picture at the end of the peak season some months away (Oct), the sale of airline will alleviate debt issues in the interim. The question will then be have market fundementals changed and what is outlook for 2020 this may warrent a rights issue or even a debt/equity swap but we are way off these decisions being made until lie of land becomes clearer. In the interim I remain positive on Tcg a lot will happen in next 3/4 months so talk on their demise is premature in my view and cashflow not an issue at present.

The PIC have duty to maximise the value of their investments over the long term, so the question they should be asking themselves is will blocking the takeover increase their investment value long term. The value of the combined SA Pgm operations will be greater than seperate parts, in my view, due to significant synergies achievable. On that basis cannot see PIC rejecting offer no matter the current price. If the PIC have reservations re future value of SBGL, that maybe warrented, then they need a plan to merge the SA Pgm operations whilst disinvesting in SBGL. This is a feasible option if they are daring! It does not solve reliance on PGM prices and Rand value impacts! Ramble over!

As I understand it its the BoD/shareholders that decide to put their company into administration if they think they cannot pay their debts or a debt holder has a floating charge over assets and they want to ensure repayment. I am not sure whether or not either situation exists but doubt it, he says hopefully. The fact that TCG were able to secure additional funding if required would indicate to me banks still prepared to lend albeit at a cost. The value of the airline business depends not just on tangible assets (planes/equipment), but also less tangible assets, for instance landing slots are worth money as far a I understand and also current business profitability which the airline part appears to be. Someone has to be willing to buy them of course! Whilst not disagreeing TCG in difficulties I do not think they are finished yet and hope not to be proved wrong next week! Time will tell!
One further point re the Citi analysis these people use a variety of valuation methods, one must ask why and for what purpose!

An alternative view to LMI takeover is that many of the existing issues facing LMI will be negated. Future capital requirements may not be as significant due to co location opportunities, it should be possible to manage job reductions (if required and would keep AMCU on side assuming they still exist!) over both sites rather at just LMI, flexibilty in utilising processing assets, SBGL currently outsource some, whilst LMI currently has capacity. The synergies quantified in bid, related primarily overhead functions and not investment, operational mining requirements and asset utilisation synergies. I remain positive that within a year or so that the SBGL/LMI PGM operations will significantly reduce COP ensuring profitability even in a low PT price environment. The combined assets do offer some additional diversity due to the change in make up of PGM basket allowing the combined operations flexibility in managing future metal price changes. I am in an optimistic mood today!

Rastuss it has been falling since its high, not close enough to understand reasons fully, just speculating that the reason maybe be more macro than micro!

More likely Chinese/US trade war caused correction!